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Dec 18, 2025
UPS’ Dividend Remains on Shaky Ground
Image Source: UPS. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, on a consolidated basis, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $24.0 billion on a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin between 11.0%-11.5%. The company reaffirmed a variety of other items, expecting capital expenditures of approximately $2.5 billion, dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, an effective tax rate of approximately 23.75%, $1.4 billion in pension contributions (of which $1.3 billion have been made), and share repurchases of ~$1.0 billion, which have been completed. For the nine months ended September 30, free cash flow was $2.74 billion. With a Dividend Cushion ratio well below parity, we remain cautious on UPS’ dividend payout. Shares yield 6.5% at the time of this writing. Dec 18, 2025
Realty Income Raises Investment Volume Guidance for 2025
Image Source: TradingView. Realty Income's dividend payments represented 74.7% of its diluted AFFO per share of $1.08 during the three months ended September 30. The REIT revised its AFFO per share guidance for 2025 to the range of $4.25-$4.27 from $4.24-$4.28 previously, while investment volume is now targeted at approximately $5.5 billion, up from approximately $5 billion previously. We like Realty Income’s dividend coverage, but don’t include shares in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, as we think existing positions offer better risk/reward potential. Shares yield 5.6% at the time of this writing. Dec 14, 2025
View Current and Archived Best Ideas Newsletters
View previous editions of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article. Dec 14, 2025
Valuentum's Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
We disclose the holdings of the portfolio of the Best Ideas Newsletter in this article. This portfolio can always be found in each edition of the monthly Best Ideas Newsletter. Dec 12, 2025
Oracle Has Turned Into a Net Debt Heavy, Free Cash Flow Burning Enterprise
Image Source: TradingView. Oracle ended the fiscal second quarter with $19.8 billion in cash and marketable securities and $108.1 billion in notes payable and other borrowings. For the six months ended November 30, cash flow from operations was $10.2 billion, while capital expenditures were $20.5 billion, resulting in meaningfully negative free cash flow. For the tailing twelve months ended in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, cash flow from operations was $22.3 billion, while capital expenditures were $35.5 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow of $13.2 billion. On the call, management noted that its fiscal 2026 revenue expectations of $67 billion remains unchanged, but that capital spending will be about $15 billion higher than it forecasted at the end of the first quarter. Since Oracle is now a net-debt heavy, free cash flow burning enterprise, we now view shares as a source of cash in the newsletter portfolios. Dec 8, 2025
Macy’s Raises Outlook for 2025
Image Source: TradingView. Macy’s revised its 2025 guidance, raising its net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share targets. Its updated guidance reflects a consumer that is more “choiceful” in the fourth quarter and that current tariffs remain in place. Net sales for 2025 are targeted in the range of $21.475-$21.625 billion, up from $21.15-$21.45 billion previously. Go-forward comparable O+L+M sales change is now expected to be flat to up 1% versus down 1.5% to flat previously. Core adjusted EBITDA margin is targeted in the range of 7.5%-7.7% compared to 7.0%-7.5% previously. Adjusted earnings per share for the year is expected in the range of $2.00-$2.20, up from $1.70-$2.05 previously. Dec 8, 2025
The TJX Companies Raises Fiscal 2026 Outlook
Image Source: TradingView. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, The TJX Companies continues to plan for consolidated comparable sales growth to be 2%-3%, pretax profit margin in the range of 11.7%-11.8%, and diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.33-$1.36. For the full year fiscal 2026, the company is now expecting consolidated comparable sales growth of 4%, a pretax profit margin outlook of 11.6% -- up 0.1% versus the prior outlook -- and diluted earnings per share in the range of $4.63-$4.66, representing a 9% increase from the prior year’s mark of $4.26. Dec 5, 2025
NextEra Energy Expects Continued Dividend Growth
Image Source: NextEra Energy. NextEra reiterated its long-term financial expectations. For 2025, NextEra Energy expects adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.45-$3.70. For 2026 and 2027, NextEra Energy expects adjusted earnings per share to be in the ranges of $3.63-$4.00 and $3.85-$4.32, respectively. The utility also expects to grow its dividends per share at a roughly 10% annual rate through at least 2026, off a 2024 base. We continue to like NextEra Energy’s fundamentals, and the firm remains a key idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio. Nov 30, 2025
View Current and Archived Dividend Growth Newsletters
View previous editions of the Dividend Growth Newsletter in this article. At Valuentum, we seek to deliver to our subscribers the best dividend growth ideas, and our Dividend Growth Newsletter does just that for dividend growth investors. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio puts into practice our rigorous valuation and dividend growth frameworks. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is generally found on page 5 of each edition.
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Image Source: TradingView. Verizon’s total unsecured debt as of the end of the third quarter was $119.7 billion, resulting in a ratio of unsecured debt to consolidated net income (LTM) of 5.9 times. Its net unsecured debt to consolidated adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.2 times. Though Verizon is a strong free cash flow generator, competition remains fierce with AT&T and T-Mobile, and its debt load is not something that we can get comfortable with. Shares yield 6.8% at the time of this writing.