Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Nov 15, 2024

Cisco Raises Fiscal 2025 Guidance
Image: Cisco’s shares have been choppy the past couple years. Looking to fiscal 2025, Cisco Systems expects revenue in the range of $55.3-$56.3 billion, up from a prior view of $55-$56.2 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $3.60-$3.66, up from $3.52-$3.58 previously. We like Cisco’s progression to a subscription base business model, its opportunities in artificial intelligence, while its forward price-to-earnings ratio remains attractive at roughly 16x current fiscal year earnings. The high end of our fair value estimate range is $67 per share.

Sep 19, 2024

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Aug 15, 2024

Cisco’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter Results Exceed Expectations
Image Source: Cisco. Cisco ended its fiscal year with $31 billion in short- and long-term debt and $17.9 billion in cash and investments. Free cash flow of $10.2 billion during fiscal 2024 easily covered its cash dividends paid of $6.4 billion. We continue to like Cisco as an idea in the newsletter portfolios. Though it has a net debt position and revenue has been under pressure, it trades at a below-market multiple, pays a nice dividend, and is working aggressively to transform its business model into one that is more recurring in nature. Shares yield 3.5% at the time of this writing.

Aug 9, 2024

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jun 10, 2024

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

May 16, 2024

Cisco Still Looks Cheap, Shares Yield ~3.2%
Image Source: Cisco. Shares of Cisco are trading at an attractive 13.4x multiple of current fiscal year earnings, while shares yield ~3.2% on a forward estimated annualized basis. We like its position in the newsletter portfolios.

Mar 8, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Mar 3, 2024

Merger Mania
Image Source: Glenn Beltz. Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.

Feb 16, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.