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Oct 30, 2025
Chipotle Facing Consumer Spending Pressures
Image Source: TradingView. For the first nine months of 2025, Chipotle generated $1.69 billion in cash from operations and spent $468.9 million in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $1.22 billion. Looking to all of 2025, management expects full year comparable restaurant sales to decline in the low-single-digit range and to open 315-345 new company-owned restaurants, with over 80% having a Chipotlane. For 2026, management expects to open 350-370 new restaurants, including 10-15 international partner-operated restaurants, with over 80% of company-owned restaurants having a Chipotlane. Though Chipotle’s business is under pressure, we continue to like the long-term growth story. Shares remain an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Oct 30, 2025
Alphabet Remains a Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: Alphabet’s revenues eclipsed $100 billion in the quarter. In the quarter, Alphabet generated $48.41 billion in cash from operations and spent $23.95 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $24.46 billion. Year-to-date, cash from operations was $112.3 billion, while the company spent $63.6 billion in property and equipment, resulting in free cash flow of $48.7 billion. Total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities was $98.5 billion at the end of the quarter, versus $21.6 billion in long-term debt. The company pays a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share. Looking to all of 2025, Alphabet expects capital expenditures in the range of $91-$93 billion. Even in the face of higher capital spending, Alphabet remains a net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. We continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Oct 30, 2025
Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Solid
Image Source: TradingView. Microsoft’s Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 40% (up 39% in constant currency) in the quarter. The company returned $10.7 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases during the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Looking to the fiscal second quarter, revenue is targeted to be between $79.5-$80.6 billion, growth of 14%-16%, compared to expectations of $80.08 billion. Azure is expected to grow 37% in constant currency in the quarter “as demand remains significantly ahead of the capacity (it) has available.” Though some expected more from Microsoft, we thought the quarter and outlook was solid. The company remains a core holding in the newsletter portfolios. Oct 29, 2025
Booking Holdings Looks to Robust Growth in Fourth Quarter
Image Source: Booking Holdings. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings expects revenue growth in the range of 10%-12% (5%-7% in constant currency), with room nights growth of 4%-6% and gross bookings growth of 11%-13%. Constant currency gross bookings growth is targeted in the range of 6%-8%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $2.0-$2.1 billion, reflecting 8%-14% growth. Looking to all of full year 2025, revenue growth is expected to be about 12% (9% in constant currency), with adjusted EBITDA growth of about 17%-18%. We continue to like Booking Holdings as an idea in the newsletter portfolios. Oct 29, 2025
Visa Expects Low Double Digit Earnings Growth for Fiscal 2026
Image Source: Visa. For the 12 months ended September 30, Visa hauled in $23.1 billion in cash flow from operations and spent $1.5 billion in property, equipment, and technology, resulting in free cash flow of $21.6 billion, or 53.9% of total revenue. Visa ended the year with cash and cash equivalents and investment securities of $19 billion and total debt of $25.2 billion. The company returned $6.1 billion in share buybacks and dividends in the quarter, and the board of directors increased its quarterly cash dividend 14%, to $0.67 per share. For full year fiscal 2026, management expects low-double-digit growth in net revenue, operating expense, and diluted earnings per share. We continue to like Visa as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Oct 28, 2025
UnitedHealth Group Raises Full Year 2025 Earnings Outlook
Image Source: TradingView. UnitedHealth Group continues to work through an elevated cost environment: “The year-over-year increase (in the medical care ratio) of 470 basis points was primarily driven by the previously described significantly elevated cost trends, as well as the ongoing effects of the Biden-era Medicare funding reductions and changes to the Part D program from the Inflation Reduction Act.” Looking to 2025, UnitedHealth Group raised its adjusted earnings guidance to at least $16.25 per share. We continue to include UnitedHealth in the newsletter portfolios. Oct 28, 2025
What Is Gold Really Worth?
Image: Gold prices have surged since 2020, and they recently hit an all-time high. What is the yellow metal really worth? Let's discuss the greater fool characteristics of the price of gold. Oct 28, 2025
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot? Oct 28, 2025
Your Role as a Choice Architect
Image: Impact Hub Global Network. Richard Thaler in his groundbreaking book Nudge, co-written with Cass Sunstein, talked about the role of the choice architect. A choice architect is basically someone or some organization that has the responsibility for organizing the context and content in which people make decisions. At Valuentum, we can never provide personalized buy/sell advice, but in providing publishing services, we've opted for the healthy option for members, and that sometimes means you won't find a large selection of dessert options. This isn't a shortcoming of our service (i.e. we know desserts are tempting), but rather a key positive attribute. As we've shown time and time again, you don't need to look far to beat the market return (or, by comparison, to have a healthy diet). If something is not on the menu at Valuentum, it means the chef has something better cooking in the kitchen. Here's to your long-term financial health!
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We disclose the holdings of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in this article. This portfolio can always be found in each edition of the monthly Dividend Growth Newsletter.