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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Nov 4, 2024
Amazon’s Operating Profit Surprises to the Upside
Image: Amazon’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2024, Amazon's net sales are expected to be between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, growing 7%-11% compared with the fourth quarter of 2023 and the midpoint slightly below consensus of $186.4 billion. The top line guidance assumes an unfavorable impact of roughly 10 basis points from currency fluctuations. Operating income in the quarter is targeted in the range of $16-$20 billion, compared with $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the midpoint above consensus of $17.5 billion. Amazon ended the quarter with $88 billion in cash and marketable securities and $54.9 billion in long-term debt.
Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.
Sep 10, 2024
Oracle Expects Increased Revenue Growth Throughout Fiscal 2025
Image: Oracle’s shares have performed quite well during the past couple years. Oracle remains a key idea in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as well as the ESG Newsletter portfolio, and its fiscal first quarter results support our bullish take on the name. Though Oracle has a rather large net debt position, free cash flow remains robust, while the company capitalizes on its total remaining performance obligations, which advanced 53% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. We liked the commentary about revenue growth to accelerate throughout fiscal year 2025, and we point to the high end of our fair value estimate range ($178 per share) for shares.
Sep 9, 2024
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Aug 28, 2024
The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.
Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.
Aug 7, 2024
Amazon's Second Quarter Results Were Mixed But Free Cash Flow Improved Significantly
Image: Amazon traded aggressively lower following its second-quarter results. Though Amazon missed second-quarter revenue consensus estimates, and the midpoint of its third-quarter revenue and earnings guidance came in below the consensus forecasts at the time, we continue to point to aggressive growth at AWS coupled with the firm’s strong free cash flow generation as reasons to not be bearish on the stock. We won’t be adding Amazon to any newsletter portfolio as we are already quite tech-heavy, but the company’s share price slide could provide an entry point on a name with strong fundamental momentum.
Aug 4, 2024
Jul 19, 2024
Netflix Still Has a Long Runway of Growth Ahead of It
Image Source: Netflix. Netflix reported solid second quarter results and raised its forward-looking guidance for the full year 2024. The company is winning the streaming wars and has a long runway of future membership growth given the 80% of TV time it and Youtube don’t already own. Its nascent ads business continues to gain traction, too. Netflix still expects to haul in free cash flow of $6 billion in 2024, as it continues to buy back stock. The company ended the quarter with $14 billion in gross debt versus cash and cash equivalents of $6.7 billion. We think Netflix is performing well, but we're already quite tech heavy in the newsletter portfolios and won't be adding shares to any portfolio at this time.
Jun 25, 2024
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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.