Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Apr 4, 2025

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months.

Jan 1, 2025

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Dec 2, 2024

Verizon Covering Dividends with Free Cash Flow
Image Source: Verizon. Looking to 2024, Verizon expects total wireless service revenue growth in the range of 2%-3.5%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 1%-3% and adjusted earnings per share of $4.50-$4.70. The company’s total unsecured debt at the end of the third quarter was $126.4 billion, a $1.1 billion sequential increase, but a level that is lower compared to the end of the same period last year. Net unsecured debt to consolidated adjusted EBITDA was 2.5 times. Verizon’s Dividend Cushion ratio is weighed down by its massive net debt load, but the dividend is supported by free cash flow. Shares yield 6.1%. Our fair value estimate stands at $44 per share.

Sep 6, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 6
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Aug 9, 2024

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jul 22, 2024

Verizon’s First Half 2024 Operating Cash Flow Declines, Adjusted Earnings Fall
Image Source: Verizon. On July 22, Verizon reported mixed second-quarter results with revenue missing the consensus expectation but non-GAAP earnings per share coming in line. Earnings per share, excluding special items, was $1.15 in the quarter, worse than the $1.21 mark in the second quarter a year ago. Cash flow from operations during the first half of 2024 was $16.6 billion, down from $18 billion in the same period a year ago. Free cash flow did improve to $8.5 billion in the first half of 2024 versus $8 billion in the first half of last year, but the improvement came in the form of lower capital expenditures, which were $8.1 billion in the first half versus $10.1 billion in the same period a year ago. Dividends paid for the first half of 2024 totaled $5.6 billion, so Verizon is doing a good job covering dividends with free cash flow, despite pressure on operating cash flow. Verizon ended the quarter with total debt of $149.3 billion and an unsecured debt to consolidated adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.5x. Shares of Verizon yield ~6.4% at the time of this writing.

Jun 10, 2024

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

May 17, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Apr 22, 2024

Verizon Is a Cash-Generating Machine But Its Debt Load Is Worth Watching
Image Source: Verizon. We like the progress that Verizon is making, but the company’s large net debt position is something that we’re not particularly fond of. Shares yield ~6.6% at the time of this writing.

Feb 26, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.