Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Booking Holdings Looks to Robust Growth in Fourth Quarter
Image Source: Booking Holdings. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings expects revenue growth in the range of 10%-12% (5%-7% in constant currency), with room nights growth of 4%-6% and gross bookings growth of 11%-13%. Constant currency gross bookings growth is targeted in the range of 6%-8%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected in the range of $2.0-$2.1 billion, reflecting 8%-14% growth. Looking to all of full year 2025, revenue growth is expected to be about 12% (9% in constant currency), with adjusted EBITDA growth of about 17%-18%. We continue to like Booking Holdings as an idea in the newsletter portfolios.

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?

Booking Holdings Expects Mid-Teens Adjusted EBITDA Growth in 2025
Image Source: TradingView. Looking to the third quarter, Booking Holdings expects room nights growth in the range of 3.5%-5.5%, constant currency gross bookings growth of 4%-6%, constant currency revenue growth of 3%-5%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 6%-9%. Looking to 2025, Booking Holdings expects constant currency gross bookings growth in the high-single-digits and constant currency revenue growth in the high-single-digits. Adjusted EBITDA growth for the year is targeted to expand at a mid-teens percentage pace. We continue to like Booking Holdings’ free cash flow profile, and the company remains an idea in the newsletter portfolios.

Delta Air Lines Restores Financial Guidance
Image Source: TradingView. Delta’s restoration of its financial guidance is positive as it relates to financial visibility, particularly with respect to the impact tariffs may have on consumer spending for travel. As noted in its commentary, fiscal 2025 earnings per share is targeted in the range of $5.25-$6.25, with free cash flow of $3-$4 billion and gross leverage less than 2.5x. Management noted that “demand trends stabilized at levels that are flat to last year” through the quarter and that it “continued to see resilience in (its) diverse, high-margin revenue streams.” For the September quarter, Delta expects total revenue to be flat to up 4% compared to the prior year. Non-fuel unit costs are expected to be the best performance of the year in the September quarter. Delta also upped its quarterly dividend 25% beginning in the September quarter. We like Delta’s enhanced visibility in restoring its guidance, though we think there are better opportunities on the market than airlines. Shares yield 1.3% at the time of this writing.

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now
All told, we think these three names are ripe for the picking. UnitedHealth Group has clearly plummeted on bad headline news, while the market is not giving Nvidia enough credit for the sustainability of its technology. Alphabet is being weighed down by antitrust issues and the concern that artificial intelligence will permanently alter its business model, which we believe will not happen anytime soon, if at all. All three ideas are included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we include a diversified portfolio of ideas for members to consider. Happy investing!

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far
Shortly after Trump's Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500, for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends. A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if a full US/China trade agreement won't be completed in the near term, as full-scale trade deals take time to mold. Thus far, we have been impressed by earnings this season, particularly by the Magnificent 7.

Booking Holdings' Free Cash Remains Robust
Image Source: Booking Holdings. Looking to the second quarter of 2025, Booking Holdings expects revenue growth of 10%-12% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 13%-16%. For full year 2025, on a constant currency basis, management expects gross bookings growth in the mid to high-single digits, with revenue advancing by the mid to high-single digits, too. Adjusted EBITDA is targeted for high-single-digits to low-double-digits growth, while adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the low to mid-teens. We continue to like Booking Holdings as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We're Doing
The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in the coming months.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 7
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Booking Holdings' Revenue Accelerates in Fourth Quarter
Image Source: Booking Holdings. Booking Holdings is doing a great job returning cash to shareholders. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $9.60 per share, a 10% increase from its quarterly cash dividend of $8.75 per share in 2024. The company repurchased $1.1 billion of stock during the fourth quarter of 2024, and the firm has remaining buyback authorization of $7.7 billion. For the full year 2024, free cash flow was $7.9 billion, roughly 33.3% of sales. Cash and long-term investments were $16.7 billion at the end of the year, about in line with short- and long-term debt of $16.6 billion. We liked Booking Holdings’ accelerated performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 and remain huge fans of its free cash flow generating prowess.