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Valuentum Commentary
Nov 20, 2024
Nvidia’s Gross Margins Facing Pressure But Still Very Healthy
Image: Nvidia’s shares have surged higher in recent years. Looking to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Nvidia’s revenue is expected to be $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to fall sequentially to 73.5%, while non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Nvidia’s third quarter report was fine, but its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was a bit light relative to some buyside estimates, and its non-GAAP gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter revealed modest sequential pressure. The high end of our fair value estimate stands at $180 per share. Oct 17, 2024
Taiwan Semiconductor Benefiting from Strong Smartphone and AI Demand
Image: Taiwan Semiconductor released better than expected results. Taiwan Semiconductor ended the quarter with NT$2,167.6 billion in cash and marketable securities against long-term interest-bearing debt of NT$936.16, showcasing a nice net cash position. Free cash flow in the quarter advanced to NT$184.91 billion from NT$68.03 in the year-ago period. Looking to the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue is targeted in the range of US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion (consensus was at US$25.02 billion), while gross profit margin and operating profit margin, based on the exchange rate assumption of 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars, are expected to be 57%-59% and 46.5-48.5%, respectively. We liked Taiwan Semiconductor’s results and outlook, and the company remains a key idea in the ESG Newsletter portfolio. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Aug 28, 2024
Nvidia Beats Second Quarter Estimates
Image: Nvidia’s shares have been on a tear the past year. On the heels of the strong second quarter fiscal 2025 report, Nvidia approved an additional $50 billion in share buybacks in addition to the $7.5 billion it still has remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Looking out to the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Nvidia expects revenue to be $32.5 billion, plus or minus 2%, while GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.4% and 75%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, management expects gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, which is a very healthy level of profitability. Our fair value estimate stands at $125 per share. Aug 25, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the site. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Jun 14, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website. Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site. May 24, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 24
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. May 23, 2024
Nvidia Remains a Free Cash Flow Generating Powerhouse
Image: Nvidia’s first-quarter fiscal 2025 results delivered, and the company remains a Wall Street darling of a stock. Nvidia continues to be the poster child for the AI revolution, and its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results delivered on the high expectations embedded in the company’s stock. The firm announced a 10-for-1 stock split, while it raised its quarterly cash dividend 150%. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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