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Valuentum Commentary
Nov 13, 2024
Home Depot Navigating Macroeconomic Uncertainty Well
Image: Home Depot’s shares are flirting with all-time highs. Looking to fiscal 2024 guidance, Home Depot expects total sales to increase 4% including SRS Distribution and the 53rd week, up from the prior forecast of 2.5%-3.5%. The 53rd week is expected to add $2.3 billion to total sales, while its SRS acquisition is expected to contribute roughly $6.4 billion in incremental sales. Comparable sales are expected to decline roughly 2.5% for the 52-week period compared to fiscal 2023 and down 3%-4% previously. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to decline roughly 1% from $15.25 in fiscal 2023, including the 53rd week and better than prior expectations calling for a 1%-3% decline. Shares yield 2.2% at the time of this writing. Sep 26, 2024
An Important Measure of Leverage for Dividend-Growth and Income-Oriented Shareholders, One That Is Dividend-Adjusted
As more and more investors rely on company dividends for income, dividends, in our view, have become more debt-like commitments in nature, especially from the perspective of dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders. Years ago, we rolled out a measure of financial leverage that considers both the company’s debt and the present value of its future expected cash dividend obligations, which, in the eyes of die-hard dividend-growth or income-oriented shareholders, may be implicitly assumed to be debt-like commitments in substance. We think this leverage ratio can be used in conjunction with the Dividend Cushion ratio to gain additional insight into the dividend-paying financial health of an entity. Aug 27, 2024
Toll Brothers Expects Demand to Remain Solid Into 2025
Image: Toll Brothers stock has done quite well during the past couple years. For its fiscal year 2024 guidance, Toll Brothers expects deliveries of 10,650-10,750 units (was 10,400-10,800) with an average delivered price per home of $975,000. Its adjusted home sales gross margin is targeted at 28.3% for fiscal 2024 (was 28%), while SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue is expected at 9.4% for the year. Toll Brothers ended its fiscal third quarter with $893.4 million of cash and cash equivalents and $2.8 billion in total debt. Its net debt-to-capital ratio stood at 19.6% at the end of the fiscal third quarter. Though Toll Brothers’ backlog faced declines in its fiscal third quarter, we liked the increased guidance across its key homebuilding metrics. Aug 20, 2024
Lowe’s Lowers Full Year 2024 Outlook on Weak DIY Sales
Image: Lowe’s shares have traded sideways since the beginning of 2022. Lowe’s updated its outlook for full year 2024 to account for “lower than expected DIY sales and a pressured macroeconomic environment.” Total 2024 sales are now expected in the range of $82.7-$83.2 billion (was $84-$85 billion), with comparable store sales expected to be down 3.5%-4% (was -2% to -3%). Adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales is targeted in the range of 12.4%-12.5% (was 12.6%-12.7%). Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected in the range of $11.70-$11.90 (was $12.00-$12.30). Our $230 fair value estimate of Lowe’s remains unchanged at this time. Shares yield 1.9%. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Jun 18, 2024
Lennar Navigating Fluctuating Interest Rate Environment Well
Image: Lennar has been a strong performer since the beginning of 2023. We liked the quarterly update from Lennar, and while we won’t be adding this homebuilder to any newsletter portfolio, we’re interpreting its performance as another positive data point regarding the macroeconomic environment. Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site. May 31, 2024
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 31
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. May 21, 2024
Lowe’s First Quarter Results Come in Better Than Feared
Image Source: Lowe's. Lowe’s continues to navigate a post-pandemic market environment and a relatively stagnant housing market. Comparable store sales were impacted by sluggish Do-It-Yourself [DIY] big ticket discretionary purchases, but strength was evident in sales in Pro and online. The firm reaffirmed its 2024 outlook. May 17, 2024
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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