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Valuentum Commentary
Oct 29, 2024
Momentum Across Alphabet’s Business Is “Extraordinary”
Image: Shares of Alphabet look poised to break out to all-time highs. Alphabet ended the quarter with $93.2 billion in total cash and marketable securities and long-term debt of $12.3 billion. Cash flow from operations in the quarter was $30.7 billion, while capital spending totaled $13.1 billion, resulting in robust free cash flow generation of $17.6 billion. Year-to-date, cash flow from operations was $86.2 billion on capital spending of $38.3 billion, good for free cash flow generation of $47.9 billion. Alphabet also announced a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, to be paid to each of the company’s Class A, Class B, and Class C shares. Our fair value estimate stands at $188 per share. Sep 30, 2024
DOJ Antitrust Lawsuits Targeting Our Top Two Ideas: V and GOOG
Image: Alphabet's and Visa's shares have performed remarkably well since the beginning of 2023. We received a number of questions regarding the DOJ's investigation into anticompetitive practices for two of the top ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Antitrust news with respect to Alphabet’s ad search business and Visa’s debit card business is nothing surprising, but it speaks to the positives and dominance behind their business models, something we like quite a bit. Any outcome of an antitrust lawsuit is uncertain and could result in a settlement and potential other action, including divestitures. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Sep 10, 2024
Oracle Expects Increased Revenue Growth Throughout Fiscal 2025
Image: Oracle’s shares have performed quite well during the past couple years. Oracle remains a key idea in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as well as the ESG Newsletter portfolio, and its fiscal first quarter results support our bullish take on the name. Though Oracle has a rather large net debt position, free cash flow remains robust, while the company capitalizes on its total remaining performance obligations, which advanced 53% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. We liked the commentary about revenue growth to accelerate throughout fiscal year 2025, and we point to the high end of our fair value estimate range ($178 per share) for shares. Aug 4, 2024
What to Do During This Market Selloff
In short, nothing. Jul 24, 2024
Alphabet’s Free Cash Flow Faces Pressure in Second Quarter
Image: Alphabet’s shares have performed well so far in 2024. Alphabet reported solid second quarter results with strong performance across its operating segments. In the quarter, Google Cloud revenue came in better than expectations, while YouTube ads missed only slightly. Alphabet now pays a dividend, and it continues to aggressively buy back stock. The company’s free cash flow faced pressure in the quarter due to investments to drive innovation, and while this may pressure ROICs in the coming periods, we still like Alphabet as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Jul 19, 2024
Netflix Still Has a Long Runway of Growth Ahead of It
Image Source: Netflix. Netflix reported solid second quarter results and raised its forward-looking guidance for the full year 2024. The company is winning the streaming wars and has a long runway of future membership growth given the 80% of TV time it and Youtube don’t already own. Its nascent ads business continues to gain traction, too. Netflix still expects to haul in free cash flow of $6 billion in 2024, as it continues to buy back stock. The company ended the quarter with $14 billion in gross debt versus cash and cash equivalents of $6.7 billion. We think Netflix is performing well, but we're already quite tech heavy in the newsletter portfolios and won't be adding shares to any portfolio at this time. Jun 12, 2024
Oracle Misses in Q4 But Bookings Performance and Outlook Strong
Image: Oracle’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023, and management’s outlook speaks to continued strength. We liked Oracle’s cash flow performance for fiscal 2024 and outlook for not only fiscal 2025 but also its positive commentary associated with the momentum it has built for fiscal 2026. We continue to like Oracle as an idea for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Shares yield ~1.3% at the time of this writing. Jun 10, 2024
Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site. Apr 28, 2024
Alphabet Posts Strong First Quarter, Initiates Dividend, Launches Huge Buyback
Image: Alphabet’s valuable properties continue to put up nice revenue growth. Alphabet ended the quarter with $108.1 billion in total cash and marketable securities against a long-term debt load of $13.2 billion, so Alphabet has an ample net cash position to support cash returns to shareholders. For the quarter ended March 31, 2024, Alphabet’s free cash flow totaled $16.8 billion, slightly lower than the same period last year due to a near doubling in capital spending, but nonetheless, the measure was healthy. We continue to like Alphabet as a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
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