Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 28, 2024

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.

Jan 28, 2024

What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?
Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow learning tool for individual investors. So you noticed a fair value estimate changed, and you weren’t sure why? This article is for you.

Oct 25, 2023

Visa’s High Margin Business Reveals Consumer Spending Remains Resilient
Image: Visa has been a strong performer thus far in 2023. On October 24, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa reported excellent fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Net revenues advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP earnings per share leapt 18% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the period. For the fiscal year, Visa generated an impressive 64.4% operating margin. Payments volume increased 9% and cross-border volume advanced 16%, showcasing that the consumer remains very healthy thanks in part to low unemployment rates, despite concerns over higher mortgage costs, student loan repayments, and general economic uncertainty as savings accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic wane. We continue to be big fans of Visa as our top payments-related idea.

Jun 5, 2023

ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
Image: Since the publishing of the first edition of the book Value Trap, the stylistic area of large cap growth (SCHG) has meaningfully outperformed both the equal-weight S&P 500 (SPY) and small cap value (IWN).With the debt-ceiling debate behind the markets, the regional banking crisis largely in the rear-view mirror, and the Fed winning the fight against inflation, a continuation of the strength in the markets as witnessed from the October 2022 lows can probably be expected. We're going to "fully invested" in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio today and expect to do the same in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio soon.

Mar 23, 2023

"Charles Schwab CEO on SVB fallout, contagion risk and deposits" -- CNBC Television
Image: Shares of Charles Schwab have faced considerable pressure as a result of the ongoing regional bank crisis. Charles Schwab CEO Walter Bettinger recently talked with CNBC's Sara Eisen about developments at the brokerage house.

Mar 13, 2023

ALERT: We’re ‘Raising Cash’ in the Newsletter Portfolios
Image: American Union Bank, New York City. April 26, 1932. Public Domain. Almost a decade ago now, we wrote the following: “We firmly believe that an investment in a bank must come with the acknowledgement of the distinct possibility that another financial crisis may occur at an unknown time in the future. Why? Banks do not keep a 100% reserve against deposits. Our good friend George Bailey knew this very well when he tried to discourage Bedford Falls residents from making a “run” on the famous and beloved Building and Loan.” – Brian Nelson, CFA, September 4, 2013

Mar 6, 2023

Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView. The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our view, and that means to us markets may avoid any substantial leg down for the time being. We continue to be cautious on the equity markets in the near term, and we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios if the S&P 500 breaks through its 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line.

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Oct 26, 2022

Visa’s Stock Remains Resilient, Huge Free Cash Flow Margins
Image Source: Visa. Visa is one of our favorite ideas for long-term capital appreciation potential and is included as a top “weighting” in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The company boasts tremendous free cash flow margins, and its competitive profile is among the strongest across all of our coverage. Management just boosted its dividend in a big way, while also upping its share buyback authorization. We continue to be huge fans of the name.

Sep 4, 2022

Video: How Many Stocks Should You Own?
Valuentum's President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA, explains the importance of diversification, how to think about firm-specific and systematic risk, how many stocks one should own to achieve 90% of the diversification benefits, how to think about active asset allocation versus active equity management, and why diversification is a means to achieve goals, not the goal itself. A content-packed 14-minute video. Don't miss it!