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Valuentum Commentary
Nov 4, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway’s Operating Earnings, Free Cash Flow Fall in Third Quarter
Image: Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its stake in Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s third quarter operating results weren’t great, and the firm noted that it expects pre-tax incurred losses from Hurricane Milton to be between $1.3-$1.5 billion and be reflected in its fourth quarter earnings. Free cash flow has faced some pressure during the first nine months of the year, and Buffett continues to cash out of Apple and Bank of America. Berkshire’s cash balance continues to swell, perhaps indicating that Buffett views the market as overheated at the moment. Total shareholders’ equity was $631.8 billion at the end of September, translating into a price-to-book ratio of 1.54. Shares of Berkshire are not cheap, in our view, but the company remains a key holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Nov 1, 2024
Apple’s Fiscal Fourth Quarter Report Shows Strength
Image: Apple’s shares continue to flirt with all-time highs. Apple ended the quarter with $157.7 billion of cash and marketable securities. Total debt totaled $106.6 billion at the end of the quarter. For the twelve months ended September 28, cash flow from operations advanced to $118.3 billion from $110.5 billion in last year’s period, while capital spending fell to $9.4 billion from $11 billion in the year-ago period. Free cash flow of $108.8 billion in the fiscal year easily covered the company’s cash dividends paid of $15.2 billion. Apple bought back $94.9 billion in common stock during the fiscal year. Our fair value estimate stands at $226 per share. Sep 19, 2024
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios. Aug 28, 2024
The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment. Aug 26, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Balance Swells, Ownership Stake in Apple Substantially Reduced
Image: Berkshire Hathaway reduced its equity stake in Apple by a sizable margin. Berkshire Hathaway continues to execute well across its business portfolio, free cash flow continues to move in the right direction, while Buffett remains prudent with his portfolio management decisions. Shareholders’ equity at the end of June was $608 billion, implying that shares are trading at a 1.6x book value, not cheap. Still, we like shares as a key holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Aug 25, 2024
Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the site. Aug 9, 2024
Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. Aug 4, 2024
What to Do During This Market Selloff
In short, nothing. Aug 2, 2024
Apple Beats Expectations, Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow
Image: Apple’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2022. We liked Apple’s calendar second quarter (fiscal third quarter) results, as the firm outpaced consensus expectations for both Products and Services revenue. Apple’s balance sheet remains pristine, and its strong free cash flow easily covers its dividend. The company continues to buy back stock, and while there were pockets of weakness in the quarterly report, including revenue in Greater China, we like the company’s positioning in artificial intelligence, as we await a strong upgrade cycle for its next-generation iPhone. Shares yield 0.5% at the time of this writing. Jul 27, 2024
Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating
Image shown: An examination of the problem that might arise by focusing exclusively on companies that have economic moats, or sustainable and durable competitive advantages.Without an economic castle, an economic moat doesn’t matter. Let's examine Valuentum's Economic Castle™ rating.
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