Kinder Morgan Expected to Capitalize on Natural Gas Demand

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By Brian Nelson, CFA

On July 16, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported mixed second quarter results with revenue beating the consensus forecast, but non-GAAP earnings per share coming in line with expectations. Second quarter net income attributable to KMI was $715 million, up 24% from the same period a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA advanced 6%, to $1.97 billion from the same period last year.

Management had a lot to say about the quarterly results and outlook:

With historic growing natural gas demand forecasts, a positive federal regulatory environment, and highly supportive federal permitting agencies, the future for our company is very bright. We will continue to reap the benefit of a business model structured around long-term take-or-pay, fee-based contracts with credit-worthy customers.

We continued to internally fund high-quality capital projects while generating cash flow from operations of $1.6 billion and $1.0 billion in free cash flow (FCF) after capital expenditures. Our balance sheet remains healthy, as we ended the quarter with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.0 times.

…LNG nameplate capacity is expected to more than double by 2030. We currently have long-term contracts to move almost 8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas to LNG facilities and, upon completion of projects under construction, that amount is expected to grow to almost 12 Bcf/d by the end of 2028. We are also pursuing a substantial number of additional LNG feedgas opportunities.

Overall, total demand for natural gas is expected to grow by 20% through 2030, led by LNG exports. We are also actively pursuing well over 5 Bcf/d of opportunities to serve the natural gas power generation sector. Approximately 50% of our backlog is associated with projects supporting power generation. In the markets we serve, we expect nice growth in power demand in the coming years. With 66,000 miles of natural gas pipelines connected to all major basins and demand centers, along with over 700 Bcf of working gas storage capacity, we are confident that we will secure our share of additional natural gas infrastructure projects supporting rising natural gas demand.

Our project backlog reflects this strong natural gas demand. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the backlog stood at $9.3 billion, net of approximately $750 million in projects placed in service. This constitutes a 6% increase compared to $8.8 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Natural gas projects account for approximately 93% of our backlog.

Looking to 2025, Kinder Morgan expects net income to be $2.8 billion, up 8% when compared to last year’s tally. Adjusted earnings per share is targeted at $1.27, which is 10% better than the mark achieved in 2024. Kinder Morgan expects to declare dividends of $1.17 per share for 2025, which represents an increase of 2% from dividends declared in 2024. Finally, the pipeline giant has budgeted 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 billion, up 4% versus 2024, while it plans to end 2025 with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.8 times. We like Kinder Morgan, but don’t include shares in any newsletter portfolio.

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