Dollar General Raises Guidance Despite Tariff Uncertainty

Image: Dollar General’s shares have been under pressure the past few years.

By Brian Nelson, CFA

On June 3, Dollar General (DG) reported better than expected first quarter results, with both revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Net sales advanced 5.3%, to $10.4 billion, while same-store sales growth came in at 2.4%, reflecting a 2.7% increase in average transaction and a 0.3% decline in customer traffic. Operating profit increased 5.5%, while diluted earnings per share increased 7.9%, to $1.78. Cash flow from operations increased 27.6%, to $847.2 million.

Management had the following to say about the quarter:

We are pleased with our start to the year, including strong same-store sales and EPS results. Our efforts to improve execution and enhance the associate and customer experience are yielding positive outcomes in both our operational performance and our financial results. I (CEO Todd Vasos) want to thank our team for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities with value and convenience every day. These efforts contributed to market share gains in sales of both consumables and non-consumables, and drove growth with both our core customer and trade-in customers during the quarter.               

Looking ahead, we are uniquely well-positioned to serve our customer in a variety of economic environments. We are proud of our progress and are excited about the future of this business, as we look to further create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.

Dollar General updated its fiscal year 2025 guidance to reflect first quarter results and tariff uncertainty. Its updated guidance “assumes the company will be able to mitigate a significant portion of the potential impact to its cost of goods sold from tariffs at currently implemented rates, but that consumer spending could be pressured by tariff-related price increases.”

As a result of these moving parts, net sales growth for fiscal 2025 is targeted in the range of 3.7%-4.7%, up from prior expectations of 3.4%-4.4%. Same-store sales growth for the year is targeted at 1.5%-2.5% compared to prior expectations of 1.2%-2.2%. Diluted earnings per share is expected in the range of $5.20-$5.80 compared to its prior expectation in the range of $5.10-$5.80. Shares yield 2.4% at the time of this writing.

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