Chipotle’s Long-term Growth Prospects Are Impressive

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By Brian Nelson, CFA

On February 4, Chipotle (CMG) reported fourth quarter results that were in-line with the consensus forecasts for the top and bottom lines. Total revenue in the fourth quarter increased 13.1%, while comparable restaurant sales advanced 5.4% consisting of higher transactions of 4% and a 1.4% increase in average check. The company’s operating margin increased ~20 basis points, to 14.6%. Its restaurant level operating margin fell to 24.8% from 25.4% in last year’s quarter, however, due to higher food, beverage and packaging costs as well as higher labor expenses. Adjusted diluted earnings per share nonetheless advanced 19%, to $0.25. During the quarter, Chipotle opened 119 company-owned restaurants with 95 of the locations including a Chipotlane, and one international licensed restaurant.

Management was upbeat in the press release:

Chipotle had another outstanding year, delivering strong transaction driven comps each quarter, expanding margins, adding over 300 new restaurants, gaining momentum in key industry leading brand metrics, making progress on many restaurant operating initiatives and building our footprint internationally. I (CEO Scott Boatwright) want to make sure that as we continue to scale Chipotle, everything we do is in service of our guests or those who serve our guests which will enable us to achieve our long-term ambitious goals of reaching 7,000 restaurants in North America, growing our AUVs beyond $4 million, expanding margins and making progress toward becoming a global iconic brand.

During the fourth quarter of 2024, Chipotle bought back ~$330 million of stock, and as of the end of last year, the company had $1 billion remaining available under share repurchase authorizations. Looking to 2025, management expects full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the low to mid-single digit range and plans for 315-345 new company-owned restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane. At the end of 2024, Chipotle had 3,746 total restaurants, and the firm is targeting as many as 7,000 restaurants in North America alone. We like Chipotle’s long-term growth potential, and the firm remains a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

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