Member Articles

Boeing Has Upside, Suppliers to Benefit From Boom

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With the first delivery and ramp up of Boeing’s (BA) revolutionary 787 Dreamliner, the reintroduction of its 747 platform, and rate increases on its workhorse 737 line, investors should expect a fairly significant ramp up in commercial aircraft deliveries, which remain supported by a massive backlog of unfulfilled orders. Impressively, Boeing’s commercial backlog of 3,400-plus planes is roughly 7x this year’s expected commercial revenue, in dollar terms. Needless to say, parts suppliers like Spirit Aerosystems (SPR), Precision Castparts (PCP), Rockwell Collins (COL), Goodrich (GR), Honeywell (HON), United Technologies (UTX) and a variety of others (including engine-makers like GE) will benefit from the coming boom in aerospace. Click to enlargeFurther, drawdowns in inventories, which have been a cumulative drag of over $15 billion … Read more

Despite Spirit Airline’s Appeal, Investors Should Avoid Aviation Stocks

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/271723-despite-spirit-airlines-appeal-investors-should-avoid-aviation-stocks Spirit Airlines, expected to eventually trade under the ticker SAVE, seems to have what it takes to be a long-term survivor in the airline industry. The firm boasts ultra low-cost operations and has shown resiliency despite rising jet fuel costs and a recent labor strike. The carrier is far from immune from the structural pitfalls of the airline industry, which include severe pricing pressure, labor unions (about 50% of the workforce in Spirit’s case), and volatile jet-fuel prices. But Spirit Airlines has the correct business strategy (an ultra low-cost focus) and capital structure (no debt following its eventual IPO and recapitalization) to best weather any cyclical troughs or temporary exogenous … Read more

Southwest Is the Most Efficient Airline, But Cost Advantage Narrows

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/271527-southwest-is-the-most-efficient-airline-but-cost-advantage-narrows In the commodified airline industry, the lowest-cost provider often dictates the price for any given route. And as outlined in “Why Airline Stocks Are Not Long-Term Investments,” real pricing growth continues to elude this troubled industry. As a result, efficient and low-cost operations are paramount to success, and in many cases, essential for long-term survival. The primary metric used to gauge the cost structure of an airline is cost per available seat mile (CASM) — or the cost to fly one seat one mile, whether it’s occupied or not. Unfortunately, comparing one airline’s consolidated CASM with that of another offers little insight into which airline is truly more cost efficient, … Read more

Sizing Up the Long-Term Growth Potential of Buffalo Wild Wings

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/271459-sizing-up-the-long-term-growth-potential-for-buffalo-wild-wings  A restaurant focused on the concept of wings, beer, and sports seems like nothing special, but Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) certainly has carved out a solid presence in this arena. With each restaurant boasting an extensive multi-media system (projection screens, 50 televisions, etc.), a full bar and open layout, “B-Dubs”, as it is commonly known, has become the place of choice for many social chicken-wing lovers. Thanks in part to its widespread appeal, the firm has experienced tremendous growth during the past number of years as revenue has more than doubled since 2006. Management also expects to open more than 100 new restaurants in 2011. But how long can this … Read more

Initiating Coverage of LinkedIn at $45 Fair Value

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/271173-initiating-coverage-of-linkedin-at-45-fair-value Although LinkedIn (LNKD) appears to have carved out a nice niche in the professional-networking arena, the firm has quite a bit of work to do to effectively maximize its revenue platform, and competition from a plethora of potential rivals (including Facebook and Google) may inevitably cause long-term head winds. Still, the firm’s revenue trajectory will be stellar during the next few years, and translating this growth to the bottom line will largely hinge on its ability to leverage infrastructure and marketing costs. I am initiating coverage of LinkedIn with a $45 per share fair value estimate; revenue estimates at $496 million in 2011, $831 million in 2012, and $1.2 billion … Read more

Is AMR’s Equity Practically Worthless?

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/270933-is-amrs-equity-practically-worthless As outlined in “Why Airline Stocks Are Not Long-Term Investments,” pegging a fair value on an airline’s equity is a nearly impossible task due to the tremendous operating leverage inherent to their business models and the fact that key valuation drivers such as unit revenue and unit cost are largely out of their control. That said, let’s take a look at what AMR’s equity investors have to overcome to recognize any value in their holdings. AMR’s pension obligations are staggering: ~$24 per share. Unlike peers that passed along their pension obligations to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation via Chapter 11 reorganization (United Continental (UAL), Delta (DAL), etc.), AMR still retains … Read more

Republic Services: A Trash Stock Worth Picking Up

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/270758-republic-services-a-trash-stock-worth-picking-up As Benjamin Franklin once said, “nothing is certain but death and taxes.” If he had lived during our time, Franklin would probably have added a couple other certainties – and garbage would have been among them. The US non-hazardous solid-waste services industry generates annual revenue in excess of $50 billion, a staggering number just to keep our streets clean. Public companies (like Waste Management (WM), Republic Services (RSG), Waste Connections (WCN), etc.) dominate this market, generating greater than 60% of industry revenues and controlling an equal percentage of valuable disposal capacity. The top line for the group can be expected to expand at a nominal-GDP rate, with pricing growth in … Read more

Looking Beyond Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/270296-looking-beyond-boeings-787-dreamliner Despite Boeing’s well-documented troubles with its revolutionary 787 Dreamliner, the aircraft will likely dominate the small wide-body jetliner segment for many years to come. Investors correctly remain focused on the plane’s first delivery later this year, and subsequent production ramp up to satisfy a massive backlog of unfulfilled orders. And while successful execution on its 787 program would be welcome news, especially as it eases inventory build and bolsters cash flow, looming threats posed to its workhorse 737 in the narrowbody arena— the largest market as measured by units and dollar-value during the next couple decades– should not be ignored. What once was a duopoly in the large commercial aircraft market … Read more

5 Reasons to Buy Ancestry.com

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/270120-5-reasons-to-buy-ancestry-com It’s not every day that investors come across a firm with a cash-rich, subscription-based business model with substantial revenue growth prospects and operating-leverage tailwinds. And certainly one wouldn’t expect to find it with a name such as Ancestry.com. But whether you’re a family history buff or not, this name may be a perfect fit for the aggressive growth portion of your equity portfolio. Here are five reasons to buy this name at these levels: 1) Ancestry.com’s long-term market opportunity is phenomenal. 2) The firm’s incremental margins on new subscribers are more than triple that of current reported results, offering a long runway for earnings leverage. 3) Ancestry.com’s cash-rich, subscription-based business … Read more

High Yield Dividend Newsletter — $500/Year Special + Free Autographed Gift!

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Renew Your Subscription to Valuentum’s High Yield Dividend Newsletter at half off the regular annual price and receive a free copy of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation autographed by author Brian Nelson. —  Use subscribe button below to begin subscription process. — Hi everyone!   Believe it or not, in just a few days, it will be 2020. Although we’ll be ushering in a new decade soon, the interest on certificates of deposit remain paltry these days, and the Federal Reserve has only cut rates a number of times during 2019, hurting savers.    Now more than ever, investors need new solutions and new options. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter is released monthly and offers a fascinating perspective on high-yield investing, in … Read more