Member Articles

The Vigilant Investor: a Former SEC Enforcer Reveals How to Fraud-Proof Your Investments

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Valuentum’s subscriber base enjoys reading the latest and greatest investing books. As a result, Valuentum requests and receives business and investing books before they are officially released. Our editorial staff took a look at the following book, and here’s what we thought after reading it: The Vigilant Investor: a Former SEC Enforcer Reveals How to Fraud-Proof Your InvestmentsBy Pat Huddleston. AMACOM, 2011. 256 p. ISBN 978-0-8144-1750-8.Book Release Date: October 25, 2011 With the misdeeds of Bernie Madoff still fresh in our minds, this humorous yet insightful look at how to protect yourself from scams and con men is sure to be a hit. Divided into two parts, part 1 covers all aspects of investment fraud, while part 2 focuses specifically … Read more

Looking for a Pullback to Pick Up Johnson & Johnson’s Shares

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/278789-looking-for-a-pullback-to-pick-up-johnson-and-johnsons-shares As long-time followers of Johnson & Johnson (click ticker for report: ) know, the firm is a steady, established company that has pursued somewhat of a defensive strategy in light of the global economic situation, which continues to muddle along in the US. J&J has pulled back on capital expenditures and R&D, while cutting overhead expenses, amounting to material operating savings. Operating margins have improved from about 26.6% in 2008 to over 27.5% in 2010, and we think there is further room for expansion in coming years. We believe these operating improvements to be a low risk measure to improve the bottom line, and with expansion into international markets, the firm should … Read more

Adding Collective Brands to Our Best Ideas List

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/278772-collective-brands-turnaround-candidate-not-value-trap  Collective Brands Looks More Like a Turnaround Than a Value Trap We have initiated coverage of Collective Brands (PSS) at a fair value of $24 per share based on our discounted cash-flow process. The company reported a miserable first quarter, and the stock has languished since, creating an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors, in our opinion. Legendary investor Peter Lynch made quite a bit of money betting on turnarounds, and we think Collective Brands is the quintessential turnaround candidate. We think the stock is unfairly beaten down, providing considerable upside to patient investors. We are adding the firm to our Best Ideas List. Source: Valuentum Securities Inc.Source: Valuentum Securities Inc. (in millions of … Read more

How Have Some of Our Picks Fared?

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/278155-bearish-on-airlines-but-bullish-on-aerospace-a-good-bet Since we published our report May 19 that suggested AMR’s (AMR) equity is — for all intents and purposes — worthless, the stock has fallen almost 20%, much to the delight of those that bought at-the-money put options at that time. While we maintain that AMR Corp. does have option value (which is why it continues to trade above $0 per share), we think the deck is stacked against the carrier and believe there is more room for the firm’s stock price to fall, despite its current liquidity position. First, we believe the carrier’s fleet to be the most inefficient among legacy network peers. Second, we think its cost structure is among … Read more

What Does $150 Oil Mean for Airline Stocks? New 52-week Lows.

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/277933-what-does-150-oil-mean-for-airline-stocks-and-the-airline-etf-expect-new-52-week-lows In “Get Ready for $150 Oil,” Barron’s predicts an oil shock will occur in spring 2012, with the black commodity reaching a record average monthly price of $150 per barrel, with spikes to $165 and $170 along the way. If this prognostication proves correct, airlines are in for a world of hurt. Before we get started on just how painful this shock could be, we invite airline stock speculators to take a read of our industry primer on the airline industry.  Jet fuel prices generally represent the largest component of an airline’s cost structure, and we estimate that for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, it costs the global airline industry about $1.5 to $1.7 billion more. … Read more

Analyst Note: Hedge Positions of the Major Network Airlines

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We wanted to provide our subscribers with a brief snapshot of the 2012 hedge positions of the major airlines, should there be an oil price shock in spring 2012 along the lines of what Barron’s outlined in its cover story over the weekend.  United Continental (UAL) United Continental has only hedged 5% of its expected fuel needs for 2012 (Source: UAL’s 1Q 2011 10-Q). AMR Corp. (AMR) We don’t believe AMR has any material hedges for expected fuel consumption in 2012 (Source: AMR’s 1Q Earnings Release). US Airways (LCC) We believe US Airways to be completely unhedged for an oil price shock in 2012 (Source: LCC’s 1Q 10-Q). Delta (DAL) We do not believe Delta has a material hedge position in 2012 … Read more

IRAs, 401(k)s, & Other Retirement Plans: Taking Your Money Out

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Valuentum’s subscriber base enjoys reading the latest and greatest investing books. As a result, Valuentum requests and receives business and investing books before they are officially released. Our editorial staff took a look at the following book, and here’s what we thought after reading it: IRAs, 401(k)s & Other Retirement Plans: Taking Your Money OutBy Twila Slesnick and John Suttle. NOLO, 2011. 390 p. ISBN 978-1-4133-1393-2.Book Release Date: July 6, 2011 In the 10th edition of this NOLO guide, Slesnick (an Enrolled Agent who specializes in tax and investment planning) and Suttle (attorney and CPA) attempt to break down this complicated process into understandable pieces, complete with the legal and tax implications. Each chapter begins with an explanation of who should read … Read more

AMR’s Big Order to Pressure Cash Flow, Boeing in Precarious Position

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/277628-amrs-big-order-to-pressure-cash-flow-boeing-in-precarious-position Shortly after we released our analysis of the fleets of the largest domestic carriers, The Wall Street Journal reported that AMR Corp. (AMR) is interested in ordering as many as 250 planes from either Boeing (BA) or Airbus (EADSY.PK). Our analysis, the summary graph of which we provide below, indicated that AMR is roughly on par with Delta (DAL) for having the oldest fleet (read fuel-inefficient) among the Big 4 domestic majors, so we view this move as inevitable. (Click chart to expand) The Wall Street Journal also indicated that the order value could be as high as $15 billion (comprising about 250 planes), and we suspect the new aircraft being evaluated will … Read more

How Profitable is Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner? Not Very.

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This article originally appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/277504-how-profitable-is-boeings-787-dreamliner-not-very With Boeing’s (BA) 787 Dreamliner in the final stages of testing, we thought it would be helpful to clarify the profitability of this program (or perhaps more appropriate, the lack thereof), at least in its early stages. The growth potential of this program has been well-documented, but the 787 platform’s profitability will be nowhere near what management had expected before it experienced the first of many delays of its Dreamliner.  We think investors should be made aware of just how much leeway Boeing has in determining earnings, and why Boeing is one of the more difficult firms for the analyst community to get their arms around due to the lack of transparency. We believe Boeing will set the initial 787 accounting … Read more

Big 5 Sporting Goods Looks Extremely Undervalued, But Proceed With Caution

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This article appeared on Seeking Alpha. Please view disclosures: https://seekingalpha.com/article/277117-big-5-sporting-goods-looks-extremely-undervalued-but-proceed-with-caution If you read nothing else, consider these 3 points: Big 5 is disproportionately affected by unemployment in its key home states The company continues to grow slowly and conservatively Big 5 finds homes in niche markets that Dick’s (DKS) and The Sports Authority aren’t interested in What Big 5 does Big 5 is a small sporting goods retailer with 396 stores in 12 western states. The vast majority of its shops are concentrated in California and Nevada. They sell shoes, apparel, athletic gear, and accessories. For shoppers in bigger cities, one might find The Sports Authority or Dick’s Sporting Goods, as Big 5’s stores operate on a much smaller scale. The … Read more