Member Articles

Phillips 66 Hovering Near All-Time Highs, Shares Yield ~2.7%

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Image: Phillips 66’s shares continue to hover near all-time highs thanks to a favorable energy resource environment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Shares of refining giant Phillips 66 (PSX) continue to hover near all-time highs as the company benefits from a favorable energy resource environment. The company’s fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.09 beat expectations handily, as it hauled in $2.2 billion in operating cash flow in the period. Phillips full-year 2023 performance was solid as it generated $7 billion in operating cash flow and returned $5.9 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. Shares yield ~2.7% at the time of this writing. Management remains shareholder-friendly and said much in its fourth-quarter press release: As we … Read more

Hasbro Is Down But Not Out, Shares Yield ~5.3%

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Image: Hasbro’s shares have faced considerable pressure during the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hasbro’s (HAS) recently reported fourth-quarter results weren’t great and showed revenue declining 23% as it experienced material weakness in its Consumer Products segment (-25%) and Entertainment division (-49%) in the quarter. On an adjusted basis, backing out large impairment charges, the firm’s operating loss came in at $50 million in the quarter, while it recorded adjusted net earnings of $0.38 per share. Hasbro continues to navigate a difficult demand environment for physical toys, but the company’s free cash flow remains robust and was in excess of cash dividends paid during 2023. Shares yield ~5.3% at the time of this writing. Image: Hasbro had a … Read more

Altria Selling Portion of ABI Stake, Raises 2024 Guidance

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Image: Altria’s shares reacted positively to news that it would sell a portion of its stake in Anheuser-Busch Inbev. By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 14, Altria Group (MO) announced that it would be selling in a secondary offering 35 million of its ~197 million shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) it owns to unlock value for shareholders. The cigarette maker noted that it would use the proceeds of the sale for accelerated share buybacks to the tune of a $2.4 billion increase to its existing $1 billion repurchase program, a move that we like quite a bit as it helps to reduce total dividend obligations paid to shareholders given Altria’s outsized dividend yield. The cigarette maker also raised its earnings … Read more

Dick’s Sporting Goods Soars, Raises Dividend 10%

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Image: Dick’s Sporting Goods’ shares have soared since the doldrums of the COVID-19 meltdown. By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 14, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) reported better-than-expected top and bottom-line performance for the fourth quarter and issued a solid outlook for fiscal 2024. Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods have done fantastic since the worst of the COVID-19 meltdown years ago, and the momentum behind its business remains strong, as evidenced by a nice 10% increase in its quarterly dividend. We expect to raise our fair value estimate of Dick’s Sporting Goods upon our next valuation model update, and the company remains a key idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Management’s commentary in the quarterly … Read more

Williams-Sonoma Beats in Fourth Quarter, Raises Dividend 26%

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Image: Williams-Sonoma is facing revenue pressure, but free cash flow trends are robust. Image Source: Williams-Sonoma By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 13, Williams-Sonoma (WSM) surprised the Street to the upside with better-than-expected fourth quarter results, a huge dividend increase, and the launch of an incremental $1 billion in share repurchases. We expect to raise our fair value estimate as a result of the good news. Though the firm’s sales continue to face pressure due to a weakened housing market, its cash-based sources of intrinsic value are robust, and shares yield 1.6% on a forward estimated basis. The omni-channel specialty retailer for home goods that sports brands such as the Pottery Barn, West Elm as well as its namesake faced … Read more

Oracle Hits Optimistic Note in Fiscal Third Quarter

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Image Source: Peter Kaminski By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 11, Oracle (ORCL) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2024 results that showed total revenue advancing 7% on both a GAAP and constant-currency basis, roughly in-line with expectations, and non-GAAP earnings per share increasing 16%, to $1.41, beating the consensus forecast. Revenue growth rates were strong across the board, and the company’s total Remaining Performance Obligations soared 29%, to $80 billion at the end of the period. Though the quarter was solid, what the Street liked the most was management’s commentary in the press release: Large new cloud infrastructure contracts signed in Q3 drove Oracle’s total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to over $80 billion—an all-time record. We expect to continue receiving … Read more

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends

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“Business owners across the world know that their business is not more or less valuable because they paid themselves a higher distribution this quarter.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Image Source: Images Money Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not a driver behind it. where A (t) is an Enterprise Free Cash Flow (1) at year t,                 B (0) is a Total Debt at time 0,                 … Read more

Costco’s Shares Have Surged Over the Past Year!

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Image: Costco’s shares have run past the high end of our fair value estimate range. Shares look pricey at the moment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Shares of market darling Costco (COST) have had a mighty run over the past year, advancing more than 65%. The company is a social media favorite and operates at the center of the mindset of consumers, providing both convenience and bulk savings to the shopper. The high end of our fair value estimate range for the big box retailer stands at ~$749, so we can’t say shares, which closed March 7 at ~$786 per share, are a bargain. However, Costco has rewarded patient investors considerably over the past several years and beyond. For the quarter … Read more

ESG Matters: KMB, ADM, CC

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Image: Chemours stock has been pummeled recently over an accounting probe. By Brian Nelson, CFA A lawsuit was filed against Kimberly-Clark (KMB) on February 28, 2024, alleging that the company used per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, commonly known as “PFAS” or forever chemicals, in a facility in Connecticut where it makes Kleenex tissues. The lawsuit claims that the chemicals could have been released into the air and seeped into groundwater as paper waste was disposed of at a local landfill. The hazards of PFAS, which do not easily break down in nature, gained significant prominence in the media of late given recent lawsuits targeting 3M (MMM). Though the outcome of any lawsuit remains uncertain, Kimberly-Clark maintains the allegations are “unfounded.” Regardless, … Read more