Member Articles

We Don’t Envy Ullman’s Position

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After firing controversial CEO Ron Johnson during the quarter, department store retailer JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) announced weak results yet again. Revenue fell 16% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, falling short of already low consensus expectations. The firm’s loss was also much deeper than consensus estimates, widening to a loss of $1.31 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Free cash flow was substantially worse as the company burned through even more cash than it did in the prior-year period, posting negative free cash flow of $966 million. The main culprit of JC Penney’s weakness seems to have been its change in price strategy. Same-store sales declined 16.6%, which is simply unacceptable for any retailer. The firm brought back … Read more

Let’s Take a Victory Lap: $1,000 Is in the Cards for Google

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During the past six months, shares of Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Google (click ticker for report: ) have performed exceptionally well, increasing over 40% compared to a 22% gain for the NASDAQ over the same time period. Given the tremendous fundamentals of Google’s core search business, continued mobile monetization, and a stable of potentially blockbuster products, we continue to believe shares have upside north of $1,000 per share. The main driver of our fair value estimate remains Google’s advertising business. The core search business saw paid clicks rise 20% year-over-year during the most recent quarter, driving Google Site Revenue 18% higher to $8.6 billion. Demand for online advertising shows no signs of slowing, but perhaps more importantly, Google has … Read more

Don’t Be Fooled by Kohl’s Earnings “Beat”

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Shares of department store chain Kohl’s (click ticker for report: ) surged Thursday after the company reported better than anticipated earnings for its first quarter. Revenue at the retailer fell 1% year-over-year to $4.2 billion as same-store sales declined 1.9%. Earnings per share increased 5% year-over-year to $0.66, exceeding consensus estimates as the share count shrunk. Conversely, free cash flow declined 29% year-over-year to $170 million as the company did not increase its accounts payable as aggressively as it did in the first quarter of the prior year. We suspect some of the optimism surrounding Kohl’s first quarter centers around a slight improvement in gross margins, which increased 50 basis points year-over-year to 36.4%. Management pointed to lower sourcing costs … Read more

Wal-Mart’s Sales Decline Doesn’t Matter

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Global retailing goliath Wal-Mart (click ticker for report: ) posted lackluster results for its fiscal 2014 first quarter earlier this morning. Total sales increased just 1% year-over-year to $114 billion, below consensus expectations, as US same-store sales dipped 1.4%. Earnings per share increased 5% year-over-year to $1.14, which was a penny below consensus estimates. Free cash flow for the quarter totaled $1.9 billion, lower than that of the prior-year period, which benefitted from a substantial amount of accrued income taxes. Wal-Mart’s management team provided several reasons for the decline in same-store sales, including the delay in the payroll tax, the negative impact of one less selling day and adverse weather. All factors are likely valid for a company as broad … Read more

Cisco Surges On Solid Revenue Growth

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Network switch maker Cisco (click ticker for report: ) reported solid fiscal third quarter results Wednesday afternoon, marked by strong revenue growth. Revenue increased 5% year-over-year to $12.2 billion, exceeding consensus expectations. Earnings were also above consensus estimates, growing 6% year-over-year to $0.51 per share on a non-GAAP basis. Free cash flow rose to $8 billion, up significantly from the $7.5 billion the firm generated in the first 9 months of fiscal year 2012 (Image Source: Cisco). Performance was strong across all geographies, with the Americas region boasting 10% revenue growth and robust gross margins. For the first time in recent memory, the firm’s US public sector business grew at 5% thanks to strong demand from education and state/local governments. The firm’s … Read more

The One Thing You Never Knew About Warren Buffett And Others Don’t Want You To Know

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Warren Buffett is one of the most talked about investors of our time, but he is also the most misunderstood. We hope that what you read in this article will open your eyes to new investment horizons and strategies. We hope it will help you cut through the marketing materials of others that you read so much. And at the very least, we hope it will help you learn more about the Oracle. As you’re reading, it will be very important to keep in mind that it is not Warren Buffett’s admission of his mistake in this article, but the idea that he would pursue an investment of this quality in the first place. We ask: If he can make … Read more

Valuentum’s Presentation at the World Money Show in Las Vegas

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Las Vegas | May 14, 2013 • Caesars Palace The Valuentum Team was invited by the MoneyShow to present its take on the ‘12 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market‘ today, Tuesday May 14, 2013, from 5:45pm-6:45pm at Caesers Palace. 12 Steps to Understand the Stock MarketTuesday, May 14, 2013 | 5:45 pm – 6:45 pm View President of Equity Research Brian Nelson’s and Director of Research Development RJ Towner’s slide deck presentation below to learn more about how Valuentum has redefined the investment process and why combining a variety of investment perspectives is the key to successful stock selection. Also, learn more about our dividend products and unique dividend tools.

Jos A. Bank Warns on Earnings; We’re Not Touching This Stock

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Troubled suit seller Jos A. Bank (click ticker for report: ) warned earlier this morning that its first-quarter earnings per share were going to fall in the $0.27-$0.30 range, which is well below the consensus estimate of $0.46 per share. This range is also well below the company’s first quarter earnings of $0.53 per share in fiscal year 2012. Management readily blamed lower average selling prices and higher input costs as weighing on margins, but we also think the company is having a hard time competing in the suit retail business. In our view, customers simply do not want the firm’s suits unless the value element is incredibly compelling. We also think the company missed a huge opportunity as the … Read more

A Great Question From a Member

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Please note that this Q&A article is dated May 11, 2013. Q: I am thinking of starting to follow your dividend growth portfolio but question the inclusion of some of your holdings. You rate several either “Poor” or “Very Poor” on both growth and safety criteria. Why do you still hold these companies? Why use these rating criteria if you don’t follow them yourselves? Are you planning a change soon to unload some of these names that your own rating system deems undesirable at the present time? A: Thank you for your question. We may hold on to a dividend growth firm that does not score highly on our rating system as we look for an exit point. A really … Read more