Member Articles

Starbucks Facing New Era of Challenges?

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There are core problems lurking at Starbucks, in our view, and the idea that the chain will triple the number of company-owned store closings in US markets in fiscal 2019, to 150 (from 50, on average, in prior years), is rather telling that something’s not quite right, regardless of whether it may be too-high of prices, changing consumer preferences (millennials), increasing competition (McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts), oversaturation in densely-penetrated markets–or a combination of all of the above. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, Starbucks (SBUX) reset investor expectations lower, just a couple weeks after former CEO and executive chairman Howard Schultz announced he is walking away from the business to pursue other personal interests, some speculating that it will be a … Read more

Trade Worries Back on the Table

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Image Source: Michael Vadon We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. By Brian Nelson, CFA News that President Trump is asking to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on which to levy a 10% tariff has the markets a bit jittery. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded that if the US moves forward with the tariffs, it would take “comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and retaliate forcefully.” We expect news regarding trade tensions between the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) to only intensify in the coming weeks, as the White House seeks to pursue what is likely game theory to achieve better … Read more

Visa!

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Image shown: The performance of Visa since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has a habit of identifying outperforming stock ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA The Valuentum team has put together an incredible track record during the past several years, and frankly, if you haven’t already, you have to read through the analysis of the history of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. It goes into why we think the way we do and provides a variety of references to our processes and methodology. The analysis can be downloaded at the following link (pdf): https://valuentum.com/downloads/20180530/download For the team to achieve what it was able to do, despite a ~25% cash “position” in … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending June 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Canadian Energy Services & Technology (CESDF): now CAD 0.005 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0025. Carolina Financial (CARO): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Chesapeake Utilities (CPK): now $0.37 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.325. El Paso Electric (EE): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.335. Ennis (EBF): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Exantas Capital (XAN): now $0.10 per … Read more

Private Equity Likely Interested in GameStop As Netflix Shocks Gaming Industry

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Netflix may have taken the initial steps to enter the video-gaming market. Even as the digital streaming of games may have already signaled the death knell of GameStop’s lucrative physical used-game business, that Netflix may be moving into video games may further truncate not only GameStop’s longevity, but also have ramifications across the entire video-gaming landscape. Private equity may be interested in GameStop, nonetheless. By Brian Nelson, CFA The video-gaming complex was upended June 13 when Netflix (NFLX) announced that it would be producing “an interactive Minecraft series for kids and licensing Stranger Things for a video game.” Netflix said it doesn’t “have any plans to get into gaming,” but we think it only makes sense and is likely inevitable. … Read more

The Promise of CAR-T Therapy

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Image Source: Gilead The medical field, particularly the biotech industry, is quite innovative, and advances in medicine can help a specific target population with the ultimate gift–the gift of a better life. We’re excited by the stunning advances in the CAR-T field for the treatment for various forms of cancer that have, in the past, come with an often-bleak prognosis. We expect a shift in the advances in immune-oncology as the CAR-T revolution is in its early stages. Key Takeaways CAR-T therapy holds the potential to revolutionize how hematological cancer is treated. The biotech industry remains in the early stages of the revolution, but thus far the results have been promising. We believe Gilead Sciences is best poised to exploit … Read more

Verint Trading Near 52-Week Highs

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Image Source: Verint Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint turned in a solid fiscal first quarter report June 7 as ongoing demand strength drove its top line higher. The company’s transition to a more software-focused business model is expected to continue expanding margins. Verint is a unique play on cybersecurity. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint (VRNT) continues to ride a wave of strong demand for its offerings in both its ‘Customer Engagement’ and ‘Cyber Intelligence’ segments to a growing top line, expanding margins, and solid cash flow generation. In its fiscal first quarter report, results released June 7, the company reported non-GAAP revenue growth of 10% from the year-ago period, driven by 8% growth … Read more

Merck’s Dominance in Immuno-Oncology Expands Once Again

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Image Source: Merck Merck simply blew away the competition–the results are simply incredible. Keytruda is a gamechanger, and we think it will become the top-selling pharmaceutical once the patent lapses on Humira. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways Merck has solidified its lead in non-small cell lung cancer, which should power revenue growth well into the future. Merck will become increasingly more dependent on Keytruda for top-line growth, however, as we think its clinical pipeline remains uninspiring. The company’s dividend is a head-turner, but there are long-term risks to big pharma payouts. Shares look fairly valued to us. What is Immuno-Oncology? Immuno-oncology is the innovative field which seeks to augment the body’s own immune system to fight and hopefully eradicate cancer. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending June 8

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 8. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): now $0.93 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.90. AMEN Properties (AMEN): now $20.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $10.00. Boyd Gaming (BYD): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Capital Southwest (CSWC): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Clough Global Equity Fund (GLQ): now $0.1234 per share monthly dividend, was $0.1222. Clough Global Opportunities Fund (GLO): now $0.1000 … Read more

Microsoft Wins GitHub Over Alphabet

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Image Source: Microsoft deal presentation Microsoft has agreed to acquire GitHub for $7.5 billion. Competing bids may have driven the price tag higher, but Microsoft’s financial flexibility remains top-notch. By Kris Rosemann On June 4, simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Microsoft (MSFT) agreed to acquire privately-held GitHub, one of the world’s leading software development platforms, for $7.5 billion in stock. We like that Microsoft isn’t taking on more debt related to this transaction, and in light of Microsoft’s buyback program, the deal is more cash-like than anything else. GitHub will continue to operate independently in providing an open platform for developers after the deal closes, which is expected by the end of 2018, similar to Microsoft’s course of action … Read more