Brian Nelson

Fastenal Puts Up Mixed First Quarter Results

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Image: Fastenal reported mixed first quarter 2024 results. We like its business model quite a bit. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 11, Fastenal Company (FAST) reported mixed first-quarter fiscal 2024 results with revenue and earnings per share coming in slightly lower than expectations. Net sales advanced 1.9% for the three-month period ending March 31. The company noted that adverse weather impacted sales in its first quarter by about 10 to 30 basis points on a net basis. Operating income nudged lower in the quarter modestly, while net income advanced 0.9% in the period on a year-over-year basis. Diluted earnings per share was roughly flat in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, increasing 0.6% from the same period a year … Read more

Delta Reports Strong March Quarter; Airline Stocks are Too Risky for Our Taste

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Image Source: Colin Brown By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 10, Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported solid results for its quarter ending in March. On an adjusted basis, operating revenue came in at $12.6 billion (up 6%), while adjusted operating income came in at $640 million with an operating margin of 5.1%. Adjusted pre-tax income was $380 million, revealing a pre-tax margin of 3.0%. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.45 per share, while the company hauled in adjusted operating cash flow of $2.5 billion. Free cash flow was a robust $1.4 billion, while its adjusted debt to EBITDAR came in at 2.9x, down modestly from the end of 2023. Return on invested capital was 13.8% on a trailing … Read more

How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? — And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation

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Please select the image below to download, “How Well Do Enterprise-Cash-Flow-Derived Fair Value Estimates Predict Future Stock Prices? — And Thoughts on Behavioral Valuation”   Abstract: This paper attempts to solidify the efficacy of the predictive power of fair value estimates for stocks, as derived by the discounted enterprise cash flow (free cash flow to the firm) process. The piece emphasizes the difference between share prices and estimated fair (intrinsic) values and offers an overview of the discounted enterprise cash flow model, what causes fair value estimates to change, and what drivers may be most important within the context of the discounted enterprise cash flow model. The work examines the importance of both art and science in discounted enterprise cash … Read more

3 Dividend Growth Stocks for the Long Run

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA Stock prices and returns are in part a function of a company’s net cash position on the balance sheet and the free cash flows that it will generate in the future for shareholders. We call net cash and future expected free cash flow generation the two primary cash-based sources of intrinsic value in determining a company’s fair value estimate. When it comes to assessing dividend health, we examine these two cash-based sources of intrinsic value, too. For example, a company with a strong net cash balance has greater financial flexibility than a firm with a large and prohibitive net debt position. Entities that generate strong free cash flows in excess of their … Read more

Geopolitical Risks Driving Crude Oil Prices Higher

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Image: Crude oil prices have staged a strong advance to start 2024. By Brian Nelson, CFA Geopolitical tensions continue to be elevated as concerns grow that the war in the Middle East could further escalate, and as the war in Ukraine continues to rage on. On April 1, Israel apparently staged an attack on an Iran embassy in Syria that killed several military officials, including three senior Iranian commanders. Iran has indicated that it would retaliate, and many are speculating that the possible attack may be on Israeli soil, which would further increase global tensions. Ukraine has also been actively targeting Russian energy infrastructure, cutting into Russia’s refining capacity.   Many are positioning in energy markets for a potential spike … Read more

Crown Castle Under Activist Fire

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Image: Crown Castle’s shares have been under pressure the past couple years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Back in January, Crown Castle (CCI) reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of 2023, capping off an eventful year. Site rental revenues advanced 4% on the year, while net income dropped 10% for the full year 2023. Adjusted EBITDA nudged 2% higher on the year, however, while adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) increased at a similar pace, with the measure reaching $7.55 per share for the year, well in excess of its run-rate $6.26 per share in annual dividends. Shares yield ~6.2% at the time of this writing. Management had the following to say about the performance: Crown Castle delivered 2023 results in … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Beats the Aristocrats

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Please select the image below to download the report. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Actual results may differ from backtested information being presented.  —– Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, RSP, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, and VOO. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies. Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a … Read more

ConAgra’s ESG Initiatives Noble; Near-5% Dividend Yield Supported By Free Cash Flow

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Image Source: ConAgra By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 4, ConAgra Brands (CAG) reported decent third quarter fiscal 2024 results, with revenue coming in-line with expectations and the company’s bottom line numbers beating out the consensus estimate. Net sales fell 1.7% from the prior-year period, while organic net sales declined 2%. Its weak organic net sales were driven by both a negative impact from price/mix and lower volumes. ConAgra’s adjusted gross profit margin increased 52 basis points in the quarter as higher productivity more than offset inflationary pressures, but higher advertising and promotional spending weighed on performance. The company’s operating margin faced some headwinds in the period, falling 49 basis points on an adjusted basis, to 16.4%. Adjusted diluted earnings … Read more

Gilead’s 4%+ Dividend Yield Covered Nicely with Free Cash Flow

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Image: Gilead’s coverage of its dividend with free cash flow remains rock-solid. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported mixed fourth-quarter results with revenue coming in better than expected, despite a decline, and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in a bit light relative to expectations. Our fair value estimate of Gilead Sciences stands at $96 per share, well above where they are currently trading, and Gilead’s 4%+ dividend yield is backed by a healthy Dividend Cushion ratio of 1.9. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% on a year-over-year basis as COVID-19 related sales faded as the world has largely moved past the global pandemic. The weakness in that area, however, was partially offset by higher oncology … Read more

Phillips 66 Raises Dividend 10%!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Refiner and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio idea Phillips 66 (PSX) declared on April 3 a quarterly dividend of $1.15 per share on its common stock, reflecting a 10% payout increase. Management had the following to say about the payout hike: The dividend increase reflects the confidence we have in our growing mid-cycle cash flow generation and disciplined approach to capital allocation, including a secure, competitive and growing dividend. Since our formation in 2012, we have steadily raised our dividend, resulting in a 16% compound annual growth rate. We are well-positioned to continue delivering significant shareholder value through the successful execution of our strategic priorities, including returning $13 billion to $15 billion to shareholders through dividends … Read more