Brian Nelson

Beginning of BlackBerry Turnaround?

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Last January, we were puzzled by the situation surrounding BlackBerry (BBRY), and judging by the volatility in shares, many other investors were as well. The firm denied rumors that it would be purchased for a substantial premium by competitor Samsung (SSNLF) in hopes to continue its efforts to create a larger, more diverse portfolio to compete with Apple (AAPL); BlackBerry continues to bet on its ability to use its own patent portfolio to facilitate a turnaround, even if tying the knot may still be the easy way out. In any case, the possibility that such a turnaround has finally begun has increased…maybe. In early November, BlackBerry completed the acquisition of secure mobile communications leader Good Technology for $425 million in … Read more

Alibaba Crushes Singles’ Day Records

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In 2009, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) turned a local holiday for singles into a 24-hour online shopping spree through deep discounts and other promotions. Singles’ Day, as it is called, has since gained significant traction in China and is now a bigger online shopping day than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. For 2015 Singles’ Day, Alibaba reported total gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $14.3 billion for the day, an increase of over 53% compared to Singles’ Day in 2014. This handily beat consensus expectations of ~$13 billion in GMV, and vastly outpaced GMV growth of 28% in the third quarter of 2015. Alibaba continues to be at the forefront of the shift of Internet shopping to mobile platforms, … Read more

Investors Punish Priceline for Conservative Guidance

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This isn’t the first time this year Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Priceline (PCLN) has been punished by investors for issuing weak guidance after a strong quarter (see our first-quarter piece). The strength of the US dollar played an important role in the weakness of the firm’s performance, but we didn’t see any material fundamental deterioration in its operations in the company’s third-quarter results, reported November 9. Gross travel bookings at Priceline grew ~22% in constant currency and 7% as reported to $14.8 billion in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis. The strength was driven by its international operations, where gross travel bookings grew 25% in constant currency. The company’s global accommodation business booked a record 116 million room … Read more

5 Reasons to Consider Not Owning McDonald’s

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1. Difficult Comps to Come in Late 2016/Early 2017 McDonald’s (MCD) has come roaring back to life. The company reported strong third-quarter performance October 22 and posted an impressive 4% global comparable sales growth rate in the period. We thought the fundamental performance was great, even though consolidated revenue and consolidated operating income dropped 5% and 2% in the quarter on a reported basis, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, constant-currency performance showed 7% top-line growth and 10% operating-income growth, both of which we thought were solid. That said, the market seems to be accepting the report as evidence that McDonald’s is permanently back on track, but we’re striking a more cautious tone. We think the quarterly results and a few … Read more

Dividend Growth Newsletter REITs

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Realty Income’s (O) Dividend Track Record Pictured: Income investors in Realty Income have been handsomely rewarded through the years. Source: Realty Income HCP’s (HCP) Dividend Track Record Pictured: HCP has rewarded income investors in each of the past 30 years with consecutive annual dividend increases. Source: HCP Let’s Talk Interest Rates There’s a lot to think about these days with respect to REITs and rising interest rates. In the equity valuation context, for one, a rising nominal interest rate, by itself, is negative. Increased borrowing costs translate into a higher discount rate applied to a REIT’s future  projected net operating income (or a higher cap rate used in the valuation process), and by extension, results in a lower intrinsic value … Read more

Email Transaction Alerts

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We know many of you use our services for a wide variety of different reasons, whether for a primary source of fair value estimates and fair value ranges, to assess the risk of the sustainability of the dividend through our Dividend Cushion ratio, or to apply the Valuentum Buying Index as an overlay to your own processes and beyond. For those that are following changes to our newsletter portfolios, we’re going to make a few today. None of these should be surprising. First, we’re taking some profits in Altria (MO), removing half of our position in both newsletter portfolios. Specifically, we’ll be removing 158 shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and 101 shares in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio … Read more

Catching Up With Some of Our Best Ideas

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Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) Teva Pharmaceutical has been a key source of outperformance for the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio since its addition in mid-2013, with its return excluding dividends currently at ~50%. We continue to think the generic pharma space offers significant opportunities for participants, and we like Teva’s global market position. We’re particularly big fans of its ‘first-to-file’ position in the US generics market, and we like its efforts to protect specialty drug Copaxone as the world’s leading treatment of multiple sclerosis. In the third quarter of 2015, foreign exchange rates took a slight toll on Teva’s reported revenue, which fell 5% from the year-ago period to $4.8 billion; on a constant currency basis, revenue increased 3%. Non-GAAP operating income … Read more

Social Media Update

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Note: Valuentum covers over a thousand companies and offers insights and updates behind core holdings in the newsletter portfolios. We did a more in-depth analysis of the “investability” of social media players at the end of the second quarter, and not much has changed. Twitter (TWTR) found its long-term answer at CEO, but its valuation distribution, or range of probable fair value outcomes, is equivalent to a lotto ticket, one that’s not likely to pay off. Facebook (FB) continues to put up astounding numbers of active users, and LinkedIn (LNKD), while offering potential as a business-networking social media site remains unproven through the course of a more challenging job market, in our view. On fundamental basis, Facebook is our favorite … Read more

Flash: Dividend Cushion Ratio Predicts Another Dividend Cut

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Textainer Group (TGH), the world’s largest lessor of intermodal containers based on fleet size, announced a cut to its dividend November 3, from the previous quarterly level of $0.47 per share to the present level of $0.24. The news was not expected, with shares of the Bermuda-based company tumbling more than 25% on the day of announcement. When will investors learn the raw, predictive power behind the Dividend Cushion ratio? Textainer had a Dividend Cushion ratio of -3.3 at the time of the cut. Anything below 1 and certainly negative speaks to concern regarding the sustainability of the dividend at the present level. We’ll be adjusting our forward expectations of the dividend, but we’ll also be adding Textainer to this … Read more

Update: A 10%+ Cost of Capital for Midstream Equities Is Reality

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< This article was published on valuentum.com/ on October 27 and was subsequently modified yesterday. > Kinder Morgan (KMI) disclosed how it would raise much-needed financing October 26, and our worst fears were realized: The marginal cost of raising capital in the midstream space has soared. As recently as earlier this year, Kinder Morgan’s executive team had been guiding analysts to a 3.3% cost of capital (“hurdle rate”), (see page 28 here), a level we had outlined was absolutely ludicrous. The 3.3% mark broke down into a 4.1% yield on equity and a 2.4% cost of debt, evenly split. Here’s what we wrote in our June 30 piece, “Kinder Morgan’s Fair Value: $29 Per Share,” when Kinder Morgan’s shares were in … Read more