Brian Nelson

Celgene Implodes

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The pharma/biotech industry operates in a boom-bust environment where the market cap of a company can post a meteoric rise or suffer a precipitous fall based on the data published from recently completed clinical trials. The industry remains one of the most innovative fields, but the quest for new products leads to constant disruption and a subsequent spike in volatility. Of late, the volatility pendulum for Celgene has swung in favor of the bears with the company posting a costly phase 3 failure. By Alexander J. Poulos Mongersen The vitality of the clinical pipeline, in our view, is the critical differentiator in the biotech space (XBI, IBB) due to the loss of revenue once patent protection lapses on existing products. … Read more

Cisco’s Shares Are Surging!

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Image Source: Cisco We received some fantastic news from newsletter portfolio idea Cisco. Shares are surging! Please tell me you knew that Cisco was one of our favorite ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA There aren’t many companies that fit the profile of making it into both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, but Cisco (CSCO) has been one of them. The company’s fair value estimate is $42, the high end of the fair value estimate range comes in at $50, and its 7 rating on the Valuentum Buying Index is quite promising in the context of this overheated stock market. Cisco’s Dividend Cushion ratio is an impressive 2.7, meaning that we would expect the company to … Read more

Buffalo Wild Wings Should Go Private and Hasbro Should Buy Mattel…But at the Right Price

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Image Source: Hasbro There is a lot happening across the M&A landscape as of late. Buffalo Wild Wings has reportedly received a go-private offer, while speculation is swirling that Hasbro is looking to gobble up Mattel. We like the prospects of both scenarios. However, price will always matter. Buffalo Wild Wings should hold out for the very best offer, while Hasbro should be very careful not to overpay for assets that may be past their prime. By Brian Nelson, CFA Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has long been a favorite of ours. You have to read, “3 Reasons Why Buffalo Wild Wings Is a Long-Term Winner” from July 2015. Certainly the beer, wings and sports establishment is facing a host of … Read more

How Have Our “Best Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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The top-weighted ideas are getting the job done, while we avoided one of the biggest missteps in all of 2017. We’ve had better years, but 2017 was still a great one. Key takeaways: 1) “The top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Apple and Visa, performed wonderfully from the release of the December 2016 newsletter through November 13, 2017, averaging more than an increase of 45%, excluding dividends, versus a mid-teens percentage advance for the S&P 500, excluding dividends.” 2) “The weighting concept within a portfolio context is an important one because, as a portfolio manager adds more and more ideas to the portfolio, the next best idea is just that–the next best one–so the probability of diluting portfolio … Read more

GE Takes the Plunge, Halves Dividend

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There may have been little surprise across the market when GE halved its dividend in its investor update November 13, but shares are selling off after management issued weaker-than-expected EPS guidance for 2018. By Kris Rosemann We can’t say we didn’t see this coming for General Electric (GE), a newsletter idea we parted ways with in May of this year as concerns rose over the sustainability of its dividend. It registered a Dividend Cushion ratio of 0.3 and dividend growth and dividend safety ratings of VERY POOOR at the time of the cut. The halving of GE’s dividend did not come as a surprise to most, “GE Cuts Guidance, All Eyes Turn to November 13,” but shares are still facing … Read more

A Guide to Using Valuentum’s Stock Reports

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There is no better value in investment research and analysis. Period. Within the individual premium plan, we offer two newsletters (the Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter), delivered by email. On the website, we provide hundreds of stock and dividend reports, proprietary metrics such as the Dividend Cushion ratio, fair value estimates, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, commentary and analysis, weekly screens, plus access to the Valuentum team and much more. As a member, learn more about Valuentum’s stock reports by downloading the guide . Thank you!

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aaron’s Inc. (AAN): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0275. Acadia Realty Trust (AKR): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Assurant (AIZ): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.53. Atmos Energy (ATO): now $0.485 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. Automatic Data Processing (ADP): now $0.63 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.57. BorgWarner (BWA): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. … Read more

Analysis of Spark Energy (SPKE) and Brighthouse Financial (BHF)

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Let’s talk about an extremely risky microcap energy equity, Spark Equity, and a unique potential value opportunity in the insurance business–Brighthouse Financial, the spinoff of Metlife. By Kris Rosemann Spark Energy Spark Energy (SPKE) operates as an independent retail energy services firm, providing an alternate choice for natural gas and electricity delivery in certain competitive markets. The company purchases energy from wholesale energy providers and delivers the energy to local regulated utilities for distribution via their existing infrastructure. Such an operating model exposes it to material commodity price risk, as its profitability is dependent on its ability to identify attractive markets in which to compete, as well as the price it pays for energy from wholesale providers. This operating model … Read more

Add the New High Yield Dividend Newsletter! It’s Purely Incremental

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The Dividend Growth Newsletter is part of a premium, adviser, or institutional membership to Valuentum, but the new High Yield Dividend Newsletter is purely incremental. Add it to any membership today! Update: The $400/year offer for the High Yield Dividend Newsletter has expired due to strong initial product demand, but you can still sign up for $500/year before the end of the year ($1,000/year thereafter). Lock in the savings! By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve received one or two questions about the difference between the Dividend Growth Newsletter, which is included in a premium, adviser, or institutional membership to Valuentum, and the new High Yield Dividend Newsletter, which is an incremental add on to any membership to Valuentum. If you would … Read more