Brian Nelson

Why Some Investors Fail — Worms!

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Image Source: crabchick. 

When you read our research, we’re not just providing financial metrics — Valuentum is striving to provide an answer to the most important question in investing: what is a company worth? Though there are varying opinions about which underlying factor is the most important investment consideration, at the end of the day, the process of valuation collects every investment consideration to provide a conclusion. It is the answer after all other considerations, the final outcome of analysis. It is why we say that investors that don’t pay attention to valuation may be doomed to fail…eventually. Not seeking valuation is not seeking the answer.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 30

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 30. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ACNB (ACNB): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Activision Blizzard (ATVI): now $0.34 per share annual dividend, was $0.30. Amdocs (DOX): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. Banner (BANR): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Columbus McKinnon (CMCO): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.04. First … Read more

Verint’s Big Move Puts It Ahead of the Market

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Image shown: A rally following Verint’s fourth-quarter report has put its price performance ahead of the market’s return since the beginning of 2017. We think Verint Systems is getting a bad rap about its non-GAAP reporting. Operating cash flow at the company is tremendous, and the market may finally be coming around to recognizing its undervalued nature. By Brian Nelson, CFA Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint Systems (VRNT) reported solid fourth-quarter results that showed total revenue advancing nearly 8% thanks to strong service and support sales, and operating income leaping nearly 90%, to $36.3 million. GAAP net income in the quarter more than doubled, to $18.3 million. Net debt, including long-term restricted cash, fell to $417 million from … Read more

PCSK9 Woes Weigh on Amgen and Regeneron

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Image shown: Amgen and Regeneron have both meaningfully trailed the market since October of 2017.  The robustness of the clinical pipeline offers an important clue regarding the health and vitality of a biotech/pharma company, as the clinical pipeline is critical towards maintaining and growing the top line. One of the most promising, and dare-we-say, overhyped new treatments to enter the market is the PCSK9 cholesterol-lowering agents, with Amgen and Regeneron leading the pack. Let’s discuss the results of Regeneron’s treatment along with a discussion of the path forward for the treatment. By Alexander J. Poulos Amgen’s Repatha The PCSK9 class is delineating into two competing treatments with little to differentiate between the two products. The key to perhaps gaining a … Read more

Tesla’s Shares Get Hammered

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Tesla’s shares have been overpriced for some time, but the Valuentum Buying Index system didn’t raise a big red flag until mid-June of last year. Shares have been getting hammered. By Brian Nelson, CFA What more can we say about Tesla (TSLA) other that the stock, itself, may very well be made up of “castles in the air?” A tremendously debt-heavy balance sheet and considerable free-cash-flow burn shouldn’t have merited an equity market capitalization that it once had, and recent developments have moved to deflate some of its bubble. The future for Tesla is far from guaranteed, too, and it looks like autonomous driving may not be coming to a town near you anytime soon after all. A fatal crash … Read more

Value Investors Starting to Salivate Over Facebook’s Fall

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Image Source: DonkeyHotey Facebook is becoming a value investor’s dream: a stock with fantastic free cash flow generation and balance sheet health dealing with transient headline noise. We’re waiting for shares to start to turn upward before we would consider adding to the hypothetical weighting in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. They look cheap! By Brian Nelson, CFA Facebook’s (FB) fall from grace has been a dream come true for many value investors looking for a company with a pristine balance sheet and tremendous free cash flow generation. By a pristine balance sheet, we mean a huge net cash position (~$41.7 billion) and no debt. By tremendous free cash flow generation, we mean that Facebook hauled in $5.4 billion … Read more

Archive: Nelson’s “Off the Cuff” Video Series

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We hope you enjoyed the “Off the Cuff” video series, where President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson talked in front of the camera for about 10 minutes each episode! The videos were purposely designed to be low-tech, we know – we call this “authen-tech.” We like that, and you should, too. These are not instructional videos. They are meant to be energetic, exciting, and a bit controversial. Nelson tells it how it is. That’s the only way. Follow up reading/videos provided. Videos filmed December and January 2017/2018. Don’t miss an episode! Episode 1 – North Korea, Indexing and ETFs (December 4, 2017): President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the non-zero probability of nuclear war, lofty equity market valuations, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 23

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week BBX Capital (BBX): now $0.01 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0075. Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Cousins Properties (CUZ): now $0.065 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. CSB Bancorp (CSBB): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO): now $0.040499 per share monthly dividend, was $0.037125. Finjan Holdings (FNJN): now $0.08 per share quarterly … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

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Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

AbbVie’s Product Concentration Risk Intensifies; Shares Yield ~3.9%

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AbbVie will not seek accelerated approval for what had been expected to be its next blockbuster drug, Rova-T, which had been investigated for third-line relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer. The market is reacting negatively to the disappointment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hopes had been high for the performance of a phase II study of AbbVie’s (ABBV) Rova-T (Rovalpituzumab Tesirine), an antibody conjugate targeting cancer stem cell-associated delta-like protein 3 (DLL3), but the results of the study “were not what (management) hoped for.” The company noted that, after consulting with the FDA, “it will not seek accelerated approval for Rova-T.” AbbVie’s stock was hammered on the disappointing news. Though AbbVie will continue to evaluate Rova-T in first and second-line small cell … Read more