Brian Nelson

PayPal Hits New Highs!

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We continue to watch PayPal as it has been a fantastic idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio since it split from eBay. Rivalries are intensifying in the digital payments space and the company will have to replace lost business with eBay in coming years, but we still like the idea. We also view Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as more an opportunity than a threat for many digital payment providers. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, PayPal (PYPL) announced it would acquire Hyperwallet for $400 million in cash. We think the PayPal executive team was impressed with the technology at Hyperwallet, which faciliates the ability to “pay almost anyone almost anywhere in the world.” As PayPal fuses this … Read more

Oracle’s Dividend Still Very Healthy

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Image Source: May Wong Oracle issued what is likely conservative fiscal first-quarter 2019 guidance, but the company continues to generate record amounts of operating cash flow and has a solid net cash position on the books. We’re not worried about the dividend. By Brian Nelson, CFA Oracle’s (ORCL) Dividend Cushion ratio is 4.5 at the time of this writing, meaning that, on the basis of expectations of future free cash flows relative to expected cash dividends paid, assuming a nice 12-18% annual growth rate in dividends per share over the next 5 years (as shown in its dividend report), and factoring in its net cash position on the balance sheet, we expect Oracle to cover future expected cash dividends paid … Read more

In the News: Facebook, General Electric, GameStop

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We continue to love Facebook’s valuation opportunity, and the company has registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index. General Electric’s stock price continues to swoon, and we couldn’t have called it better. We used the mosaic theory to anticipate private-equity interest in GameStop. Not a bad trio of calls, no? By Brian Nelson, CFA You will not get as much out of our website unless you read and understand “The 16 Steps” and “Analysis of the Best Ideas Newsletter” first. If you haven’t read about the Dividend Cushion ratio, and you are an income investor, you have to do that, too. We talk about the efficacy of this ratio here. You need a solid foundation on which to build. … Read more

Starbucks Facing New Era of Challenges?

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There are core problems lurking at Starbucks, in our view, and the idea that the chain will triple the number of company-owned store closings in US markets in fiscal 2019, to 150 (from 50, on average, in prior years), is rather telling that something’s not quite right, regardless of whether it may be too-high of prices, changing consumer preferences (millennials), increasing competition (McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts), oversaturation in densely-penetrated markets–or a combination of all of the above. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, Starbucks (SBUX) reset investor expectations lower, just a couple weeks after former CEO and executive chairman Howard Schultz announced he is walking away from the business to pursue other personal interests, some speculating that it will be a … Read more

Trade Worries Back on the Table

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Image Source: Michael Vadon We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. By Brian Nelson, CFA News that President Trump is asking to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on which to levy a 10% tariff has the markets a bit jittery. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded that if the US moves forward with the tariffs, it would take “comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and retaliate forcefully.” We expect news regarding trade tensions between the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) to only intensify in the coming weeks, as the White House seeks to pursue what is likely game theory to achieve better … Read more

Visa!

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Image shown: The performance of Visa since it was added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has a habit of identifying outperforming stock ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA The Valuentum team has put together an incredible track record during the past several years, and frankly, if you haven’t already, you have to read through the analysis of the history of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. It goes into why we think the way we do and provides a variety of references to our processes and methodology. The analysis can be downloaded at the following link (pdf): https://valuentum.com/downloads/20180530/download For the team to achieve what it was able to do, despite a ~25% cash “position” in … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending June 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Canadian Energy Services & Technology (CESDF): now CAD 0.005 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0025. Carolina Financial (CARO): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Chesapeake Utilities (CPK): now $0.37 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.325. El Paso Electric (EE): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.335. Ennis (EBF): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Exantas Capital (XAN): now $0.10 per … Read more

Private Equity Likely Interested in GameStop As Netflix Shocks Gaming Industry

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Netflix may have taken the initial steps to enter the video-gaming market. Even as the digital streaming of games may have already signaled the death knell of GameStop’s lucrative physical used-game business, that Netflix may be moving into video games may further truncate not only GameStop’s longevity, but also have ramifications across the entire video-gaming landscape. Private equity may be interested in GameStop, nonetheless. By Brian Nelson, CFA The video-gaming complex was upended June 13 when Netflix (NFLX) announced that it would be producing “an interactive Minecraft series for kids and licensing Stranger Things for a video game.” Netflix said it doesn’t “have any plans to get into gaming,” but we think it only makes sense and is likely inevitable. … Read more

The Promise of CAR-T Therapy

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Image Source: Gilead The medical field, particularly the biotech industry, is quite innovative, and advances in medicine can help a specific target population with the ultimate gift–the gift of a better life. We’re excited by the stunning advances in the CAR-T field for the treatment for various forms of cancer that have, in the past, come with an often-bleak prognosis. We expect a shift in the advances in immune-oncology as the CAR-T revolution is in its early stages. Key Takeaways CAR-T therapy holds the potential to revolutionize how hematological cancer is treated. The biotech industry remains in the early stages of the revolution, but thus far the results have been promising. We believe Gilead Sciences is best poised to exploit … Read more

Verint Trading Near 52-Week Highs

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Image Source: Verint Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint turned in a solid fiscal first quarter report June 7 as ongoing demand strength drove its top line higher. The company’s transition to a more software-focused business model is expected to continue expanding margins. Verint is a unique play on cybersecurity. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Verint (VRNT) continues to ride a wave of strong demand for its offerings in both its ‘Customer Engagement’ and ‘Cyber Intelligence’ segments to a growing top line, expanding margins, and solid cash flow generation. In its fiscal first quarter report, results released June 7, the company reported non-GAAP revenue growth of 10% from the year-ago period, driven by 8% growth … Read more