UPS Posts Strong Second Quarter, But Cautious on Outlook
July 26, 2011
UPS (UPS) reported decent second-quarter results, with revenue expanding 8.1% and adjusted earnings per share advancing 25% from the prior-year period. The firm’s adjusted operating margin increased 110 basis points from the same quarter a year ago to 12.6%, which fueled consolidated operating profit growth of over 20% in the period. We think UPS’ shares are slightly overvalued and think there are better places for investors’ money at this time. UPS mentioned that domestic package volume growth was relatively flat in the quarter due to the slow economy, but operating profit in the segment jumped nearly 30%. International package revenue was strong, showing over 13% growth thanks to an 8% increase in export volumes and pricing expansion. UPS’ supply chain
3M Posts Weak Second Quarter, Blames Japan Earthquake and LCD TV Sales
July 26, 2011
3M (MMM), best-known for making Scotch tape and Post-it Notes, reported second-quarter results Tuesday that showed weakness in LCD TV end-market demand and cost pressures related to higher input prices and the earthquake in Japan. Sales increased over 14% (about 4% organic) but the firm failed to leverage this expansion into meaningful earnings growth, which advanced less than 4% in the period. We were slightly disappointed by the performance, but we are maintaining our $92 fair value estimate. Sales in Europe jumped over 24%, while Latin America/Canada increased over 20% in the period (revenue generated in the US improved almost 9%). The company experienced strength in its Industrial and Transportation and Safety segment thanks to growth in renewal
Ignore Debt Ceiling News, Focus on Corporate Earnings
July 26, 2011
Simply put, the United States is not going to default on its debt. In other words, we think any market action resulting from the debt-ceiling issue will be irrelevant in coming months, and resolve itself in due time — as it has with any other crisis. Further, we remain unconvinced that this topic is a legitimate concern for long-term equity investors. The fact that America has a large national debt (and a problem with entitlement programs) is well documented in every history and social-studies textbook in grammar schools across the country; how can this be something that will blindside the markets? We’re not talking about derivatives on complex mortgage instruments here. The debt-ceiling deadline is purely a political issue, one
Strong Second Quarter For Roper, Even Stronger Outlook
July 25, 2011
Roper Industries (ROP) reported solid second-quarter results Monday that showed significant revenue and earnings expansion. Sales jumped 23% (16% organic) in the period to an all-time high, while net earnings expanded over 40%, despite a higher tax rate. The firm’s adjusted EBITDA margin expanded over 280 basis points to 28.5% in the period, a strong showing. Free cash flow jumped 41% from the same period a year ago to $145 million, which represented 21% of the firm’s sales in the quarter. This is the strongest free-cash-flow conversion rate the firm has seen in years (at least since 2006), and we expect Roper to continue to achieve free-cash-flow levels in the high-teens and low twenties as a percentage of revenue, on
Eaton Posts Solid Quarter, Ups Guidance on Margin Outlook
July 25, 2011
Eaton Corp. (ETN), a diversified industrial manufacturer, reported excellent second-quarter results Monday that showed strong revenue growth and solid earnings expansion. The firm’s top line expanded 21% during the period (14% core), while the company’s segment margins at the operating level reached all-time highs of 13.9%. This led to net income expansion of almost 50% from last year’s quarter, a fantastic showing. Eaten also bumped up its end-market growth expectations for 2011 by a percentage point to 11%, while it raised the midpoint of its full-year earnings per share guidance by $0.15 to $4.06 per share at the high end. Eaton’s results are consistent with the strength we’ve seen at other industrial companies, including United Technologies (UTX), Honeywell (HON), and
CNH Posts Fantastic Quarter, Outlook for Equipment Strong
July 25, 2011
CNH Global (CNH), the second-largest maker of farm equipment after Deere (DE), posted fantastic second-quarter results Monday, with net sales increasing 24% and net income more than doubling. The firm experienced substantial strength in agricultural equipment and construction equipment revenue, up 22% and 30%, respectively, and translated this performance into solid profitability improvement. CNH’s operating margin increased to 10.7% during the quarter from 8.4% in the same period a year ago. We were quite pleased with CNH’s performance and have added it to our watch list, a component of our Best Ideas Newsletter. CNH expects demand for agricultural and construction equipment to remain firm through the remainder of 2011, noting strengthened conditions for commodity prices and, by extension, improving farming
Kimberly-Clark Posts Mixed Second-Quarter Results, Input Costs Pose Key Threat
July 25, 2011
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) reported mixed second-quarter results that showed decent revenue growth but bottom-line pressure due to cost inflation. Sales jumped to an all-time high during the period, up 8% (3% organic) driven by modest volume and price increases, though operating profit fell 12.1% from last year’s quarter as cost inflation more than offset its efficiency initiatives. The firm’s operating margin plummeted from the year-ago period to 11.9% in the quarter, off 270 basis points, and well below our expectations. Despite the poor outlook regarding commodity-cost inflation, we are maintaining our $63 fair value estimate. Kimberly-Clark raised its full-year sales outlook for 2011 to growth of 5% to 7% from 4% to 6% (organic growth 2% to 4%)–sales are up 6% so
Microsoft Posts Strong Fourth-Quarter Results, Online Business Still Drag
July 24, 2011
Microsoft (MSFT) reported decent fiscal fourth-quarter results Thursday that showed strong sales of its Server and Tools products, Microsoft Office 2010, and its Xbox 360 entertainment platform. Revenue advanced 8% from the same period a year ago, while net income jumped 30% thanks in part to a lower tax rate. Overall, we were pleased with the quarter, despite the ongoing earnings weakness at its online business and declining growth at Windows, and we are maintaining our $35 fair value estimate of Microsoft’s shares. The firm’s Business Division had a strong showing, with quarterly revenue up 7% during the period, and the firm indicated that Office 2010 continues to be the fastest selling version of Office in history. The firm’s Server &
Coke Reports Strong Second-Quarter Results
July 23, 2011
Coca-Cola (KO) reported second-quarter results Tuesday that showed strong worldwide volume growth of 6% led by expansion outside of the US, namely Eurasia and Africa (up 7%), the Pacific, which includes China (up 7%), and Latin America (up 6%). Demand for the firm’s brand Coca-Cola was particularly impressive in China (up 24%) and Russia (up 17%). Total revenue increased 47% (due primarily to its acquisition of Coca Cola Enterprises’ North American operations), though concentrate sales and currency contributed 6 percentage points of growth, respectively. During the period, Coke Zero delivered double-digit volume growth in North America, while Fanta showed high-single-digit expansion. POWERADE delivered 9% growth and gained share in the sports drink category, while the firm’s NOS Energy brand was
Yahoo Reports Dismal Second-Quarter Revenue
July 23, 2011
Yahoo (YHOO) reported mixed second-quarter results Tuesday. Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs, fell 5%, while GAAP revenue dropped 23%, as softness in display revenue and turnover at the sales level impacted results toward the second half of the quarter. The attractiveness of competing sites like Facebook and Google (GOOG) is becoming increasingly more difficult for Yahoo to overcome, in our opinion. Income from operations, however, still advanced 9%, while net earnings per share jumped 18% from the prior-year period. Cash flow from operations fell 5% from the same period a year ago, while free cash flow shrunk 25% to $96 million during the quarter. We don’t expect a material about-face in Yahoo’s core U.S. operations, with the likes of Facebook and
