Abbott’s Shares Look Cheap
August 1, 2011
As part of our process, we employ a discounted cash-flow model to arrive at a fair value estimate for every company within our equity coverage universe. In Abbott’s (ABT) case, we think the shares look undervalued at today’s prices. Our fair value estimate for Abbott is $63 per share, over 25% higher than where it is currently trading. In the spirit of transparency, our DCF model valuation template can be found here. We make this template available to investors, and it can be re-used to value any other operating firm. Valuation Summary We assume annual average top-line growth will average in the mid-single-digits over the next five years. We also assume that Abbott will grow earnings at a mid-teens pace
Retirement Heist: How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest Eggs of American Workers
July 31, 2011
Valuentum’s subscriber base enjoys reading the latest and greatest investing books. As a result, Valuentum requests and receives business and investing books before they are officially released. Our editorial staff took a look at the following book, and here’s what we thought after reading it:Retirement Heist: How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest Eggs of American Workers By Ellen Schultz. Portfolio Hardcover, 2011. 256 p. ISBN 978-1-5918-4333-7.Book Release Date: September 15, 2011 The demise of pension funds and other retiree benefits has been blamed in recent years on a “perfect storm” of rising costs, accelerating retirements, and the global economic crisis. However, Schultz (investigative reporter for the Wall Street Journal) provides a scathing exposé that reveals the tactics companies
Get to Know Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
July 31, 2011
Before founding Valuentum in early 2011, Brian worked as a director at Morningstar, where he was responsible for training and methodology development within the firm’s equity and credit research department.
Visa Remains a Growth Story, Shares Have Upside
July 31, 2011
If you’ve been watching Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) over the last two years, both were highflying stocks with tremendous room for revenue and earnings growth. However, in a seemingly random act, Senator Dick Durbin decided to identify service revenues from the debit card duopoly as detrimental to the consumer. Since the famed “Durbin Amendment” was added to Dodd-Frank, the shares of Visa have dipped as low as $66 when the Federal Reserve announced an 11 cent processing limit on debit cards, to as high as $90 after news broke that the Federal Reserve doubled the limit to 22 cents. Although we think the company is more valuable without price ceilings, on a discounted-cash flow basis, shares of Visa are worth $107
Best Idea Ancestry.com Raises Full-Year Guidance
July 29, 2011
Best idea, Ancestry.com (ACOM) reported solid second-quarter results Thursday that showed nice subscriber growth and impressive EBITDA margins. The firm raised its outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2011, but held the line with its previous subscriber guidance, a move we think is conservative given the huge influx of subscribers in its first quarter. We think the firm has tremendous upside and are retaining our current position in our Best Ideas portfolio. Subscriber growth of 28% from the same period a year ago fueled a 36% increase in the company’s top line during the quarter. We were particularly impressed with the level of average monthly revenue per subscriber, which continues to move steadily upward. Churn did increase a
Precision Castparts Posts Strong Fiscal First Quarter Results
July 28, 2011
Metal-bender and best idea, Precision Castparts (PCP) reported excellent fiscal first-quarter results Thursday that showed continued strength in the commercial aerospace end market and additional traction in industrial gas turbines (sales were up 15%) and its seamless pipe business (sales were up 28%). We think the name is still worthy of a position in our Best Ideas portfolio. Precision’s sales jumped 16% in the quarter, and the firm was able to leverage that growth into a 19% year-over-year improvement in operating income. The company’s consolidated segment operating margin jumped to 25% from 24.3% in the year-ago period. We continue to believe Precision Castparts is a prime beneficiary of the strengthening build rates of commercial airplanes during the next few
Waste Management Posts Poor Second Quarter, Lowering Our Fair Value
July 28, 2011
Waste Management (WM) posted poor second-quarter results Thursday and lowered its earnings outlook for the year on the expectation of weaker volumes. We have reduced our fair value estimate to $39 per share on the weaker volume outlook and slightly lower yield expectations. Revenue jumped 6% thanks to higher commodity prices, improving recycling volumes and a modest improvement in pricing. The company noted that volumes hit “a soft patch” in May and June, but look to be improving modestly in July. However, it took down its full-year waste volume guidance to the range of -1.5% to -2.5%. Commentary regarding yields wasn’t all that encouraging either, with the measure facing some pressure from large municipal contracts in Florida and the Gulf Coast.
Best Idea EDAC Technology Posts Excellent Second Quarter, Raising Our Fair Value
July 28, 2011
On June 6, we wrote a bullish piece on our outlook for commercial aerospace in coming years. In it, we outlined our take on EDAC Tech (EDAC), a supplier of precision engine components to the sector. Today, the firm posted fantastic second-quarter results, and we are raising our fair value estimate to $10 per share on the heels of stronger margin performance and backlog expansion. The stock is trading up over 50% since that June 6 article, and we include this name and other ideas in our Best Ideas Newsletter, which continues to outperform the market. We reproduce below our thoughts on EDAC Tech on June 6, which was trading just above $4 per share at the time: “…one micro-cap
Delta’s Second Quarter Results Reflect Airline Industry’s Struggles
July 28, 2011
Delta (DAL) reported poor second-quarter results Wednesday that revealed the major carrier’s continued battle with high jet fuel costs. Total operating revenue expanded 12% thanks to double-digit enhancement in yield (pricing), but operating income plummeted roughly 44% from the same period a year ago as it faced a fuel bill that was more than $1 billion higher. The company plans to cut its December quarter capacity (seats) by as much as 4%-5% on a year-over-year basis, an extra percentage point greater than it originally planned. We view this as necessary given the global economic environment and general weakness in load factor (capacity utilization) – which fell 1.3 percentage points during the period. We believe Delta is one of the better-positioned
Boeing’s Second Quarter a Non-Event, Seek Better Opportunities Elsewhere
July 27, 2011
Boeing (BA) reported decent second-quarter results Wednesday, but we view such a quarter as a non-event for the aerospace giant. We maintain that the future of this jet maker rests on its ability to deliver its 787 and the profitability to be garnered on this program, which we forecast to be practically nil out of the gates. Management slightly lowered its forecasts for deliveries this year due to a short-term blip in (you guessed it) its 787 program, but again we view this change as largely immaterial to investors. Interestingly, total backlog fell sequentially, but we view this more as weakness in Boeing’s narrowbody strategy than in the broader commercial aerospace segment. We were pleased with the operating cash flow performance in
