You Already Own Whatever Your Investment Will Pay You in Dividends
March 11, 2024
“Business owners across the world know that their business is not more or less valuable because they paid themselves a higher distribution this quarter.” – Brian Nelson, CFA Image Source: Images Money Stocks are generally valued on the present value of all their future free cash flows, which already include future dividend payments. A company’s dividend policy may impact an investor’s eagerness to pay a higher price for shares on the basis of a higher yield, but the dividend is a symptom of future free cash flows (and therefore intrinsic value), not a driver behind it. where A (t) is an Enterprise Free Cash Flow (1) at year t, B (0) is a Total Debt at time 0,
Costco’s Shares Have Surged Over the Past Year!
March 8, 2024
Image: Costco’s shares have run past the high end of our fair value estimate range. Shares look pricey at the moment. By Brian Nelson, CFA Shares of market darling Costco (COST) have had a mighty run over the past year, advancing more than 65%. The company is a social media favorite and operates at the center of the mindset of consumers, providing both convenience and bulk savings to the shopper. The high end of our fair value estimate range for the big box retailer stands at ~$749, so we can’t say shares, which closed March 7 at ~$786 per share, are a bargain. However, Costco has rewarded patient investors considerably over the past several years and beyond. For the quarter
ESG Matters: KMB, ADM, CC
March 6, 2024
Image: Chemours stock has been pummeled recently over an accounting probe. By Brian Nelson, CFA A lawsuit was filed against Kimberly-Clark (KMB) on February 28, 2024, alleging that the company used per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, commonly known as “PFAS” or forever chemicals, in a facility in Connecticut where it makes Kleenex tissues. The lawsuit claims that the chemicals could have been released into the air and seeped into groundwater as paper waste was disposed of at a local landfill. The hazards of PFAS, which do not easily break down in nature, gained significant prominence in the media of late given recent lawsuits targeting 3M (MMM). Though the outcome of any lawsuit remains uncertain, Kimberly-Clark maintains the allegations are “unfounded.” Regardless,
Merger Mania
March 3, 2024
Image Source: Glenn Beltz By Brian Nelson, CFA Mergers and acquisition [M&A] activity continues as the market sets new highs. Elevated borrowing costs as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking cycle in 2022 are pushing many entities to pursue all-stock transactions. We’ve previously discussed our thoughts on the Cisco (CSCO)/Splunk (SPLK) tie-up in this article here, which was an all-cash deal, but several other rather large acquisitions have been announced that are worth bringing to members attention. On February 19, Capital One (COF) announced that it would acquire Discover Financial (DFS) in an all-stock $35.3 billion deal that would represent a 26.6% premium over Discover’s price as of February 16. The deal is expected to generate $2.7 billion
3 Catalysts for Apple’s Stock
February 29, 2024
Image: Apple’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA When Apple (AAPL) reported calendar fourth quarter results (its first quarter fiscal 2024 results), concerns over sales in China and the momentum behind its Services business cast a cloud over results. Sales from Greater China came in at $20.8 billion in the quarter, but this was much lower than the $23.5 billion that analysts had been expecting. The company’s Services business performed well, but it also came in a bit lower than expectations, despite segment revenue and its installed base of active devices hitting all-time highs. Revenue for its iPhone came in better than expectations in the quarter, so while there was some profit
Republic Services Issues Solid Guidance for 2024
February 28, 2024
Image Source: Republic Services By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 27, trash taker Republic Services (RSG) reported excellent fourth-quarter results that showed beats on both the top and bottom lines. Total revenue advanced 8.6% in the quarter, consisting of 5.7 percentage points of organic growth and 2.9 percentage points coming from acquisitions. The firm’s pricing initiatives continue to bear fruit, with core price on total revenue increasing 7.2% in the quarter. Volume increased revenue by 0.3% in the period. Thanks in part to its pricing strength, the firm’s adjusted EBITDA margin increased 260 basis points from last year’s quarter. Adjusted earnings per share advanced 24.8% in the quarter, a very strong showing. Republic Services is one of our favorite industrial
Berkshire Hathaway Caps Off Strong Year of Operating Earnings Growth
February 27, 2024
Image: Berkshire’s operating earnings experienced a strong advance during 2023 from last year’s levels. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 24, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) reported strong fourth-quarter results that capped off a year where operating earnings advanced 21% on a year-over-year basis. Warren Buffett tipped his hat to his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who passed away in November of last year, crediting him as the architect of Berkshire and himself merely in charge of the “construction crew.” There weren’t many surprises in the annual report, and Buffett made several references to areas that he has long talked about in the past, including pointing investors to operating earnings, as opposed to net income, which includes unrealized capital gains that can make
Domino’s Puts Up Strong Comp in Fourth Quarter, Approves Another $1 Billion in Buybacks, Raises Dividend
February 26, 2024
By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 26, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) reported mixed fourth-quarter results, but comparable store sales came in better than expectations and the firm announced an additional $1 billion in buybacks, while it raised its dividend ~25%. We’re huge fans of Domino’s due in part to its heavily franchised business model, impressive digital initiatives, as well as its long-term unit growth prospects. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Domino’s stands at $569 per share, and we see meaningful upside from today’s price levels (~$465 per share) given the fundamental momentum at the firm. During the quarter, Domino’s global retail sales growth, excluding currency fluctuations, came in at 4.9%, while U.S. same store sales growth
