Lone Ranger Can’t Ruin Disney’s Free Cash Flow
August 7, 2013
Tuesday after the market close, media conglomerate Disney (click ticker for report: ) announced slightly disappointing third-quarter results. Revenue fell slightly short of consensus expectations, growing 4% year-over-year to $11.6 billion. Earnings grew a mediocre 2% year-over-year to $1.03 per share (excluding one-time items), which was actually slightly better than consensus estimates. Though headline numbers were weak, free cash flow for the third quarter surged 27% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, equal to 23% of total revenue. The big disappointment during the third quarter came from Disney’s Studio Entertainment business. Revenue declined 2% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, while operating income fell 36% year-over-year to $201 million. This comes as no surprise as The Lone Ranger is already considered a flop. Since
Why We Didn’t Get Excited About First Solar
August 7, 2013
Tuesday afternoon, solar panel maker First Solar (click ticker for report: ) announced disappointing second-quarter results, confirming some of the issues we have long held with its business. Valuentum subscribers know that we don’t like the firm’s long-term prospects considering the industry’s ultra-competitiveness and First Solar’s forecast of weak gross margins. During the quarter, revenue at First Solar declined 46% year-over-year, to $520 million, more than $200 million short of consensus estimates. Earnings per share were 71% lower than a year ago, coming in at $0.37, again well below consensus expectations. Free cash flow was also materially weaker, registering $168 million (down 49% year-over-year) and equal to 32% of revenue. Image Source: FSLR 2Q 2013 Earnings Slides The situation for
ADP Issues Decent Fiscal Fourth Quarter, Strong Guidance
August 7, 2013
On Thursday morning, payroll processing firm Automatic Data Processing (click ticker for report: ) announced decent fourth quarter results. Revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, roughly in-line with consensus estimates. Earnings were a penny shy of consensus expectations, increasing 6% year-over-year to $0.55. ADP benefits greatly from increased employment, particularly since the firm is synonymous with payroll processing and management. Revenue from its ‘Employer Services’ division grew 8% year-over-year during the quarter to $2 billion. Management noted that growth was organically driven, as the firm didn’t make many acquisitions. Bookings increased at a double-digit pace during the fourth quarter, and we saw its pretax operating margins jump 120 basis points year-over-year. Client retention for the segment was robust during 2013
American Eagle and the Difficulty of Investing in Teen Retailers
August 7, 2013
Monday after the market close, teen retailer American Eagle (click ticker for report: ) reduced its second quarter earnings outlook. After a relatively weak first quarter, the firm was generally optimistic about its prospects heading into the second quarter, predicting flat same-store sales and earnings per share of $0.19-$0.21. However, earlier this week the firm said earnings per share will now be closer to $0.10 for the second quarter, a decline of 50% compared to the same period a year ago. Same-store sales that were predicted to be flat will actually be down 7% year-over-year (compared to 8% growth in the same period a year ago). Thus, same-store sales are only about 1% higher than they were two years ago.
Gorilla Glass Continues to Drive Success at Corning
August 7, 2013
Last week, glass maker Corning (click ticker for report: ) reported strong second quarter results. Revenue jumped 11% year-over-year to $2 billion, easily exceeding consensus estimates. Core earnings per share increased 23% year-over-year to $0.32, also ahead of consensus expectations. Free cash flow was up slightly from a year ago at $151 million, equal to 8% of total revenue. Corning’s ‘Display Technologies’ business (think screens) drove the lion’s share of growth as sales surged 21% year-over-year to $670 million, with earnings up 11% year-over-year. The lack of earnings leverage in the ‘Display Technologies’ comes from the presence of cheap foreign competition, which has led to market price declines. With further industry price declines imminent, controlling costs will be essential to
Buffett Proves Berkshire Is More Than an Index
August 7, 2013
For years, skeptics have labeled the company essentially an index, but Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) reported fantastic second-quarter results Friday afternoon. Revenue jumped 16% year-over-year to $44.7 billion, easily exceeding consensus expectations. Operating earnings were also strong, growing 5% year-over-year to $2,384 per share, also better than consensus estimates. The Oracle’s favorite metric, book value per share, is up 7.6% year-to-date to $122,900. Insurance On a segment basis, insurance underwriting profits were a tad weaker than the year prior, down 14% year-over-year to $530 million. Of course, underwriting is a notoriously volatile business because the timing of catastrophic events is inherently unpredictable. The year-to-date trend is positive, as profits have more than doubled. Still, the long-term trend remains the
Exxon Misses, ConocoPhillips Raises Production, and Shell Writes Down North American Shale Assets
August 6, 2013
As Valuentum members are aware, we think the oil majors each have their own respective strengths and weaknesses. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has consistently earned the best economic returns (ROCE) among peers, but its stock price is rich, trading at the high end of our fair value estimate range (at the time of this writing). ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to raise its production forecasts and is the second-best value-creator (ROCE) in the group. However, Chevron (CVX) has the strongest balance sheet among peers (it has the only net cash position), and by extension, is better-positioned to raise its dividend during the troughs of future energy-price cycles. Meanwhile, BP (BP) continues to deal with the aftermath of its well-publicized 2010 oil spill in
Whole Foods Remains the Best Grocer
August 6, 2013
Last week, organic grocery store chain Whole Foods (click ticker for report: ) reported wonderful third quarter results, again outperforming its peers. Revenue surged 12% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, in-line with consensus estimates. Earnings per share rose 20% year-over-year to $0.38, also in-line with consensus expectations. Free cash flow totaled $115 million, equal to 4% of sales. How Did Whole Foods’ Peers Do? The grocery business certainly is not a bull market. Competitor SuperValu (click ticker for report: ) reported weak results for its fiscal year 2014 first quarter. Revenue from continuing operations declined 1.5% year-over-year to $5.2 billion, as retail food same-store sales declined 3% year-over-year while Save-A-Lot same-store sales declined 1.5% year-over-year. Continuing operations also posted a loss
A Content Standoff
August 5, 2013
After a few days of threats and warnings, cable distributor Time Warner Cable (click ticker for report: ) dropped CBS (click for report: ) programming from its content offering as the two failed to reach an agreement on retransmission fees. Retransmission fees are charged by basic cable station owners (think CBS, NBC, and ABC) to distributors that wish to carry the content. Time Warner released a statement to its customers blaming CBS for outrageous demands. Current retransmission fees per subscriber hover around $1 a month, but rumors have suggested CBS would like to double this price. Time Warner believes that allowing the fee to double would set an unhealthy precedent, especially when considering that CBS is free via antenna TV.
Dividend Increases for the Week Ending August 2 Included Illinois Tool Works and Union Pacific
August 5, 2013
Below we provide a list of firms that upped their dividends for the week ending August 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): $0.13 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. B&G Foods (BGS): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Carlisle Companies (CSL): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. CBOE Holdings (CBOE): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Chemed Corporation (CHE): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Comfort Systems: (FIX): now $0.055 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Energizer Holdings (ENR): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Ethan Allen Interiors
