Joy Global: Business Is Bad and Getting Worse; Share Buybacks Are Value Destructive
August 28, 2013
The Power of a Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) Score of 1–the worst possible measure Mining equipment maker Joy Global (click ticker for report: ) posted lackluster results Wednesday for its fiscal year 2013 third quarter. Competitor Caterpillar (click ticker for report: ) posted similarly weak results as it deals with many of the same weakening global trends that are impacting Joy Global. During the period, Joy Global’s revenue declined 7% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, though that was better performance than consensus estimates predicted. Excluding items, earnings per share fell 9.1% year-over-year to $1.70, which was also slightly above consensus estimates. Free cash flow was actually better than the prior-year quarter at $320 million, equal to 24% of total revenue. Image
The Potash Situation Gets More Interesting
August 28, 2013
Late last month, Russian producer Uralkali backed out of a highly profitable and rational potash cartel arrangement, creating a free-for-all in the global potash market. As a result, shares of North American potash producers such as Potash (click ticker for report: ), Mosaic (click ticker for report: ), Agrium (click ticker for report: ), and Intrepid Potash (click ticker for report: ) have come under significant pressure as a result of the prospects for significant lower economic returns. Then mining giant BHP (click ticker for report: ) confirmed it will invest in its Jansen potash project, which will add even more potash supply to the market. A look at industry bellwether Potash’s shares below reveals the recent difficult performance experienced by the
Headline Risk Entering the Market
August 27, 2013
The summer months have been relatively uneventful, with the exception of concerns relating to the Federal Reserve’s coming tapering of its bond-buying program and quibbles between hedge fund giants over a company that makes protein shakes—we’re talking about Herbalife (HLF) in the latter example. Even the sequester proved to be a largely underwhelming event so far through 2013. As a result, the market has focused on fundamentals, awarding strong performance and punishing poor performance (almost irrespective of valuation parameters). However, the market remains fully valued at current levels, with the forward price-to-earnings ratio on S&P 500 companies in-line with its 10-year average at 14.1 times, and the distribution of our Valuentum Buying Index ratings tilting decidedly negative. The forward price-to-earnings
Foot Locker’s Revenue Growth Slows; Will Hicks Leave?
August 26, 2013
Athletic footwear retailer Foot Locker (click ticker for report: ) posted second quarter results Friday that were largely in-line with expectations. Revenue increased 6.4% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, in-line with consensus estimates. Earnings per share excluding the integration of Runners Point Group increased 21% year-over-year to $0.46, a penny below consensus expectations but not much of a disappointment. Same-store Sales Growth Decelerating… Source: Valuentum, Company Filings Foot Locker’s same-store sales increased only 1.8% year-over-year, down dramatically from the growth in excess of 5% we’ve seen from the retailer since the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Revenue growth at existing stores becomes more difficult since comp sales growth has been so strong during the past few years. We don’t think Foot
Pandora Preps for Battle
August 26, 2013
Internet radio giant Pandora (click ticker for report: ) posted solid second-quarter results Thursday afternoon. Revenue rose 57% year-over-year to $157 million, slightly above consensus estimates. Earnings-per-share on a non-GAAP basis was much higher than the prior year at $0.04, which was also much better than consensus expectations. Free cash flow during the quarter was a negative $8.5 million as the firm continues to invest heavily in future growth. Goodbye Hours-Cap Perhaps the most important development during the quarter was that Pandora will remove its 40-hour cap on mobile listening effective September 1. After re-implementing the hours-cap in February, total listening hours declined 7% sequentially (but were still up 18% year-over-year though) to 3.88 billion. Pandora had no choice, in
Dividend Increases for the Week Ending August 23 Included Altria and Gap
August 26, 2013
Below we provide a list of firms that upped their dividends for the week ending August 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports, please click here (or use our ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header). Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altria Group (MO): now $0.48 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Brinker International (EAT): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Chemical Financial Corp (CHFC): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21 Community Bank System (CBU): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. Delta Natural Gas (DGAS): was $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Dillard’s (DDS): now $0.06 per share
Shares of GameStop Look Expensive Even with Strong Guidance
August 25, 2013
Retailer GameStop (click ticker for report: ) posted a steep decline in second quarter results that was overshadowed by a positive outlook for the back half of the year. Revenue fell 10.7% year-over-year to $10.4 billion, which was a bit better than consensus expectations. Earnings per share dropped 44% year-over-year to $0.09, which was also better than consensus estimates. Sales have been weak… Image Source: Valuentum, Company Filings Shares of GameStop are up 177% over the past year—a phenomenal increase given the steep same-store sales declines recently (shown above). Weakness didn’t moderate much in the second quarter, with same-store sales dropping 10.7% year-over-year. Of course, the rally in GameStop’s share price has little to do with what happened in fiscal
Are You Ready for Some Football? Google Is.
August 24, 2013
Digital news firm AllThingsD broke the story that Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Google (click ticker for report: ) could be in talks with the NFL over exclusive rights for the NFL Sunday Ticket package, which allows consumers to view every NFL game. Another Best Idea portfolio holding, DirecTV (click ticker for report: ), currently holds exclusive rights for Sunday Ticket through the 2014 season, which costs the firm $1 billion annually. Why It Makes Sense for Google On the surface, such an idea seems interesting for Google. With the exclusive Sunday Ticket package, Google could really make a push into the TV business. Google could even pair the package with a purchase of the Google Chromecast, a portable online
Ballmer to Leave Microsoft; Market Cheers
August 23, 2013
Early Friday morning, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Microsoft’s (click ticker for report: ) long-time CEO Steve Ballmer announced that he’ll be retiring within the next year. Despite solid revenue and earnings growth throughout his tenure, investors have called for his job for years as rival Apple (click ticker for report: ) stole the spotlight in the tech world. The Bad While the late Steve Jobs will be known for his hits, Ballmer will be best known for his misses. After Apple dropped the iPod, Microsoft came to market with the Zune after the war was long over. Apple then released the iPhone, and Microsoft wasn’t ever able to fund a credible competitor in the United States, but it did
The Race to the Bottom
August 23, 2013
This week, infamous American department stores JC Penney (click ticker for report: ) and Sears (click ticker report: ) reported terrible second-quarter results. Let’s take a closer look at these failing former industry giants. JC Penney JC Penney continues to suffer from Ron Johnson’s strategy change and subsequent removal. Total sales declined 11.9% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, while the firm lost $2.16 per share on an adjusted basis. Both metrics fell short of consensus estimates. The firm burned through $1.1 billion in free cash during the quarter and has posted negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion year-to-date. The situation at JC Penney continues to be incredibly uncertain, particularly after activist shareholder Bill Ackman resigned from the board of directors
