Quiet Trading This Week
December 27, 2013
If you haven’t yet read Part I of our Best Ideas piece, you can find it here. The holiday week was very quiet, as expected. However, a few news items did hit the wires that we’d like you to be aware of. First, we received word from ChannelAdvisor, a leading cloud-based e-commerce solutions provider, that same-store sales momentum across the e-commerce spectrum may have slowed in the third week of December. This runs counter to the strong data we’ve been receiving from the space through most of the holiday season. However, we believe the recent news release is something we’d categorize as “noise” (immaterial), especially given the significant date-shifting performed in the representation of the data. ChannelAdvisor had the following
Apple and Facebook Lead the Charge on Monday
December 24, 2013
On Monday, official news of an Apple (AAPL)-China Mobile (CHL) iPhone deal sent shares of Apple soaring. We had highlighted initial reports of the announcement December 5, and we fully expect the new business to be a strong fundamental catalyst for the iPhone maker. China Mobile is the largest mobile operator in China by users, and even a low-single-digit conversion rate to the iPhone will move the deal at Best Ideas portfolio holding Apple. The iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c will be available in China Mobile and Apple stores across mainland China beginning January 17, 2014. We think consensus estimates for Apple’s earnings through the middle part of this decade are too low (on the basis of this transaction), and
Three Reasons Why Dividend Growth Investors Are Quite Savvy
December 23, 2013
A version of this article appeared on our website on October 1, 2013. There are many different approaches to investing, but we think dividend growth investors are quite savvy, especially when they combine a rigorous dividend growth process in the form of the Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratio with the valuation rigors behind the Valuentum Buying Index. Let’s examine the three reasons why we think dividend growth investors are a smart group in the age of ultra-low interest rates. #1. Fool Me Once, Shame on You…Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me Today’s dividend growth crowd has seen enough. First, they witnessed the dot-com bubble (1997-2000), a period in stock market history where firms’ stock prices soared in some cases as a result
Oracle Steals the Headlines
December 22, 2013
Last week was a busy week for Oracle (ORCL). On December 18, the tech giant reported fiscal second-quarter results that showed non-GAAP revenue advance 2% (up 3%, excluding the impact from the strengthening US dollar). Non-GAAP new software licenses and cloud software subscription revenues fell modestly (though it annualized a high-teens growth rate in the year-ago period), while non-GAAP new software license updates and product support revenues jumped 6%. Hardware Systems revenues, including hardware systems products and hardware systems support, were essentially unchanged. Non-GAAP operating income fell modestly on a still-very-healthy non-GAAP operating margin of 46%. Non-GAAP net income nudged 1% higher, but share buybacks bolstered non-GAAP earnings per share expansion to 9%, excluding the impact from a strengthening US
SoftBank Reported to Be Exploring a Deal for Sprint to Scoop Up T-Mobile
December 21, 2013
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that SoftBank is exploring a deal for Sprint (S) to scoop up the majority of T-Mobile US (TMUS). The news outlet reported that SoftBank has discussed financing a bid with as many as six banks, including Credit Suisse, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs. The banks are reported to be the same ones that backed the SoftBank-Sprint tie-up. According to Bloomberg’s sources: The plan would be to take control of T-Mobile by paying cash for the 67 percent stake owned by Deutsche Telekom AG…Sprint would then be integrated with T-Mobile, combining the third- and fourth-largest U.S. wireless carriers. Deutsche Telekom has said that it’s prepared to sell its $16 billion stake in T-Mobile, which has mostly been an
Nike’s Earnings Expansion Will Continue to Be Challenged
December 20, 2013
On Thursday, Nike (NKE) reported strong fiscal second-quarter results. Revenue expanded 8% during the period (9% on a currency neutral basis), while diluted earnings per share from continuing operations nudged 4% higher, to $0.59 per share. Sales at its Nike brand expanded in every product type, geography and key category. Sales in its Converse brand advanced 11% on a currency-neutral basis thanks to strong performance in its largest owned markets. Though we liked that gross margins advanced 140 basis points in the period thanks to a mix of higher-margin products, higher prices, and lower input costs, selling and administrative expenses leapt 14%, exceeding the pace of revenue growth. Earnings before interest and taxes for the three months ended November 30,
Tweeting on Thursday
December 20, 2013
Thursday was jam-packed with news. Let’s jump to an abbreviated ‘Valuentum Take’ on each major news item in the spirit of Twitter’s (TWTR) 140 character limit. We don’t intend to do this too frequently, but we wanted to get our take out there in a timely fashion. We’re available for any questions. Tweeting on Thursday AK Steel $AKS issues strong outlook, but #steel industry far from attractive, among the worst in our coverage. Tibco $TIBX issues poor outlook, while Red Hat $RHT exceeds expectations, puts up strong billings growth; both firms fairly valued. Linn Energy $LINE back on track as SEC endorsement improves sentiment; we prefer $KMP and $ETP in DG portfolio. Darden $DRI to part with Red Lobster; core
Valuentum Website Update
December 19, 2013
Dear Members, This morning, we rolled out new content that will make Valuentum.com more and more of a destination site for its members. Thanks to QuoteMedia, we’ve added the cleanest (ad-free) feed of press releases that we could find to our ‘Symbol’ search results page. Just by entering in the firm’s stock symbol in the ‘Symbol’ search box in the website header as you’ve always done, members can now access corporate press releases on desired firms in a section under the commentary area of the search results page (red box below). In a world cluttered with financially-biased content and information, we seek to provide a fresh voice for investors. We expect to continue to add unbiased content to the independent suite of research available on Valuentum.com in the years ahead. We hope you enjoy!
Highlighting the Fed’s Statement Regarding Asset Purchases
December 19, 2013
<< Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Release Date December 18 Release Reproduced Below: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that,
FedEx, Ford and Facebook Topping News
December 18, 2013
On Wednesday, FedEx (FDX) reported slightly lower-than-expected bottom-line performance in its fiscal second-quarter results. Revenue advanced 3% during the quarter, while reported operating income leapt 15% thanks to roughly 80 basis points of operating-margin improvement. Adjusted for the effects of Hurricane Sandy, however, year-over-year performance wasn’t that great. The firm’s quarterly earnings per share mark of $1.57 compares to an adjusted measure of $1.50, or a 4.7% increase, which itself was augmented by its share-repurchase program. Free cash flow was negative during the six months ended November 30, 2013, consistent with the cash use during the prior-year period. The company experienced improved yield and cost management (and materially better operating margin performance) at FedEx Express (its largest operating segment), but
