The Correction: Draghi; Chip, Telecom Warnings; Oil and MLPs
October 10, 2014
The equity markets have been under significant pressure the past few weeks, and we think there is further downside to come. Our view is that the equity markets will be lower than today’s levels within the next 6-18 months, if not tomorrow or next week or next month. We’ve taken profits on cyclicals, and we’ve already closed out the put option hedges in both portfolios for a substantial gain (the latest transaction alert email can be accessed here). Europe appears to be in a giant mess again. The region hadn’t been strong by any stretch of the imagination, but we recently picked up material weakness during Ford’s (F) recent analyst day, which in part prompted us to take a very
Transaction Alert: Closing Put Option Contracts
October 10, 2014
With options, time and volatility can work against you, even if you are directionally right. We’re done playing with ‘fire,’ and we’re taking profits on the put option contracts. We may reinstate the positions at a later date as our cautious outlook remains unchanged.
The Correction: The Markets Took a Turn for the Worse Thursday
October 9, 2014
Strong reports from Alcoa and Pepsi could not buoy the markets. We might get another big leg down soon. Pay attention.
What Members Are Talking About: Ford, Gilead, and Boeing
October 9, 2014
Question #1 October 1, 2014 Brian: I have a quick question for you. I read last night that Valuentum eliminated Ford (F) from their portfolio. A few months ago you commented on the strength of Ford’s sales in emerging markets. You have a range of 15-27 on Ford price using the DCF process. With F trading currently under the low end of the range, would it still be prudent to sell the position? I know clients have made gains since your recommendation in your portfolio, but wouldn’t it be more prudent to sell a position that is closer to fair value than one that is trading below its fair value range? If there is an updated report on F, I
Valuentum’s Performance on Seeking Alpha
October 9, 2014
Image Source: TipRanks, as of November 2016 By Valuentum Editorial Staff Seeking Alpha recently published the returns of certain ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ calls for each author. We applaud the firm’s ongoing dedication to transparency of its authors, if not by name, by track record. Valuentum Securities is an independent research firm headed by President Brian Nelson, CFA. Out of the 2,000+ articles Valuentum has published on Seeking Alpha, the Seeking Alpha study covered 567 of them, spanning from May 16, 2011, through June 25, 2014. Long ideas: 508; short ideas: 59. The articles in the study spanned all sectors and market capitalizations. The study pulled articles that were either tagged by Valuentum as ‘long’ ideas or ‘short’ ideas within the
The Correction: The IMF, Oil, Department Stores, and the Fed
October 8, 2014
We’ve been heeding our own words of caution for the past several weeks now, as we’ve trimmed some of the cyclical exposure in both the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio. We also added protection to both portfolios several percentage points ago in the form of put option contracts on the S&P 500. These instruments aren’t for everybody, and the put options can still expire worthless if we don’t take profits. The above chart of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) shows the ongoing market correction, and we expect to continue to provide daily market commentary in the event that things get considerably worse. Our high-level prognostication is that the broader equity markets will be lower than they are
The Correction: The Markets Are Not Panicking
October 7, 2014
Let’s talk a bit about old tech and a couple disappointing pre-announcements. Third-quarter earnings season may not be bright.
Hey…We’re Not Your Pre-Packaged, Undifferentiated Research Provider
October 7, 2014
Let’s take a glimpse of the internal valuation models our analysts are populating after considering the qualitative information of firms in our coverage universe. We’re not your pre-packaged, undifferentiated research provider.
The Correction: Markets Continue to Breathe Sigh of Relief Monday
October 6, 2014
The market shrugs off GT Advanced bankruptcy.
