Technical Analysis: It’s Not What You Think
April 11, 2016
A version of this article appeared on our website May 9, 2014. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’ve spent most of the morning trying to figure out who was first to say ‘technical analysis is like reading tea leaves.’ After being unsuccessful, I’ve given up looking and moved on to more important items. However, whoever first uttered those words — and those that repeat it mindlessly — may have done (and are doing) a great disservice to the novice investor. Let me explain why technical analysis in some form should be a part of your stock-selection arsenal. Even if you do not buy into the traditional “pattern” or “breakout” nomenclature that many associate with technical analysis, a stock chart is extremely valuable in a number of different ways:
Debt, Debt and More Debt
April 7, 2016
Image Source: Michael Fleshman Many readers may be familiar with the rhetoric of the Presidential Election Cycle of 2016 and Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders’ view on making “college tuition free and debt free.” You can take a read of the 6 steps Bernie will take as president to make college debt-free here. Many may find his last point rather intrusive to the heartbeat of the American economy and the driver behind innovation and standard-of-living improvements, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day. But what’s the shocking statistic, right? Get this – and I hope you are sitting down. According to an article by the Journal, “more than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t
Shares Are Pricey, Initiating Coverage of Kraft Heinz
April 7, 2016
Please select the image below to download PayPal’s 16-page valuation report.
Treasury Erects Iron Tax Curtain
April 5, 2016
Image Description/Source: Berlin Wall, 1963; Roger “If history is any guide, it would seem that tax lawmakers may want to think about the current political agenda’s similarities with respect to that of a “new” Berlin Wall–not one built of barbed wire but of prohibitive, restrictive tax laws–and whether such measures make sense in light of the events of the late 1980s.” – Valuentum Securities Late Monday April 4, the US Department of the Treasury launched an all-out attack on companies pursuing tax inversion deals and a technique called earnings stripping, the latter used as a means to minimize taxes after an inversion. Stating in no uncertain terms that such companies have only been successful due to the “benefits of being based
GE Pulls Back From 8-Year High, Russia Still Pumping
April 4, 2016
By Brian Nelson, CFA The last week of each calendar quarter is often a busy one for the Valuentum team. Not only did we release the Dividend Growth Newsletter on the first of the month (download ), but we also released the financial advisor publications as well (see here). If you haven’t received them, please be sure to let our team know, and we’ll forward those along to you. These documents just scratch the surface of our research and analysis offering. Please don’t forget to RSVP for an upcoming orientation webinar here. We also wanted to make you aware of the update cycle for our ETF analysis. We’ve now released the 2016 versions for the Consumer Staples (), Consumer Discretionary
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 1
April 4, 2016
TJX raised its quarterly dividend 24% March 29. Image Source: Mike Mozart Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending April 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): now $0.155 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Banner (BANR): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. City Holding (CHCO): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Dollarama (DLMAF): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Glacier Bancorp (GBCI): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was
Don’t Be Tempted By Homebuilders’ Dividends
April 4, 2016
Image Source: Toll Brothers By Kris Rosemann The underproduction of homes since 2008 has created pent-up demand, providing a material tailwind for homebuilders as of late. According to estimates from Toll Brothers (TOL), the total estimated shortfall of housing starts from the period 2008-2014 was 5.7 million. That equates to an annual shortfall in production of ~818,000 new homes, providing significant opportunities for the homebuilding group as a whole moving forward. Pent-up housing demand has been accruing for years, and stronger general economic conditions, including lower unemployment, modest wage growth, and general consumer confidence continue to drive demand. A favorable jobs/wage market has the potential to provide a material boost for homebuilders, and additional demand could be found in the
Oracle Remains Confident on Transition to Cloud
March 28, 2016
Image Source: Peter Kaminski By Kris Rosemann Oracle (ORCL) is still working to transform its operations to a cloud-based business model, but it is already selling more new software as a service (SaaS) and platform as a service (PaaS) annually recurring cloud revenue than any other company in the world, including key competitors Salesforce.com (CRM) and Workday (WDAY). Oracle competes in large SaaS markets that Salesforce.com does not, such as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and Human Capital Management (HCM). After many years of developing the most complete ERP suite in the cloud, Oracle Fusion ERP is the overall market leader in the enterprise cloud ERP market. The firm has more than 10 times the number of ERP customers than Workday,
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 25
March 27, 2016
Image shown: Raytheon’s 800XP Hawker; source: Eric Salard. Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 8point3 Energy Partners (CAFD): now $0.2246 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.217. ALPS Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR): now $0.254616 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0625. ALPS Cohen & Steers Global Realty Majors ETF (GRI): now $0.369625 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21087. ALPS Emerging Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (EDOG): now $0.11799 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.117604.
Confession: “Valuation Awareness” Is Everything
March 25, 2016
Image Source: John Morgan “Much like anyone that has never played baseball won’t be able to recognize a curveball by the tight dot that forms on the ball as it rotates out the pitcher’s hand, readers that aren’t familiar with what matters in investing won’t be able to separate good research from bad research. They can’t recognize good valuation sense and concepts that can help them from a bunch of numbers or backward-looking price-to-earnings graphs. To the non-ball player, the pitch is just a baseball, not a curveball. To the uninformed reader, financials are just numbers with little differentiation – they can’t recognize which ones are helpful and which ones are not and why. These readers need to work on
