The Bubble Is Still Inflating
April 15, 2016
The laws of finance are being bent, broken even. NIRP (negative interest rate policy) has changed everything. The world is upside down. At the beginning of the year, we were expecting ongoing contractionary monetary policy by the Fed, but on January 29, all of that changed. In a surprise move, the Bank of Japan introduced a negative benchmark interest rate of -0.1%, meaning that instead of paying interest on deposits, it would charge banks to hold their money. The move seemed to blindside the Fed, and from where we stand, it has effectively put rate increases on pause. There’s a reasonable chance of a rate hike in December, but the latest read from the CME is that there’s no chance
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 8
April 13, 2016
Proctor & Gamble’s headquarters in Cincinnati, Ohio. Barta IV Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 8. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Constellation Brands Inc (STZ): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.31. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB): now Ps. 3.50 per share annual dividend, was Ps. 3.00. H.B. Fuller Company (FUL): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. IDEX (IEX): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA): now $0.1219 per share
Alcoa Continues Swoon, Revises Aerospace 2016 Outlook to 6%-8% Expansion
April 12, 2016
Image Source: Boeing; image source: Alcoa Alcoa (AA) kicked off first-quarter 2016 earnings season April 12, but nobody reading our work should have much interest in shares. Our $10 fair value estimate for the company explains the lack of opportunity, and we laid in out in no uncertain terms in April 2015 that we thought, “The Time to Consider Owning Alcoa Has Passed.” Even a few months before that write-up, we said the aluminum giant was trading at a peak multiple on peak earnings, a classic valuation “no-no,” and since that time, shares of Alcoa have fallen more than 40%, “Alcoa Kicks Off Fourth Quarter (2014) Earnings Season:” From our Jan 13, 2015 article: Would we ever considering owning Alcoa
Technical Analysis: It’s Not What You Think
April 11, 2016
A version of this article appeared on our website May 9, 2014. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’ve spent most of the morning trying to figure out who was first to say ‘technical analysis is like reading tea leaves.’ After being unsuccessful, I’ve given up looking and moved on to more important items. However, whoever first uttered those words — and those that repeat it mindlessly — may have done (and are doing) a great disservice to the novice investor. Let me explain why technical analysis in some form should be a part of your stock-selection arsenal. Even if you do not buy into the traditional “pattern” or “breakout” nomenclature that many associate with technical analysis, a stock chart is extremely valuable in a number of different ways:
Debt, Debt and More Debt
April 7, 2016
Image Source: Michael Fleshman Many readers may be familiar with the rhetoric of the Presidential Election Cycle of 2016 and Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders’ view on making “college tuition free and debt free.” You can take a read of the 6 steps Bernie will take as president to make college debt-free here. Many may find his last point rather intrusive to the heartbeat of the American economy and the driver behind innovation and standard-of-living improvements, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day. But what’s the shocking statistic, right? Get this – and I hope you are sitting down. According to an article by the Journal, “more than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t
Shares Are Pricey, Initiating Coverage of Kraft Heinz
April 7, 2016
Please select the image below to download PayPal’s 16-page valuation report.
Treasury Erects Iron Tax Curtain
April 5, 2016
Image Description/Source: Berlin Wall, 1963; Roger “If history is any guide, it would seem that tax lawmakers may want to think about the current political agenda’s similarities with respect to that of a “new” Berlin Wall–not one built of barbed wire but of prohibitive, restrictive tax laws–and whether such measures make sense in light of the events of the late 1980s.” – Valuentum Securities Late Monday April 4, the US Department of the Treasury launched an all-out attack on companies pursuing tax inversion deals and a technique called earnings stripping, the latter used as a means to minimize taxes after an inversion. Stating in no uncertain terms that such companies have only been successful due to the “benefits of being based
GE Pulls Back From 8-Year High, Russia Still Pumping
April 4, 2016
By Brian Nelson, CFA The last week of each calendar quarter is often a busy one for the Valuentum team. Not only did we release the Dividend Growth Newsletter on the first of the month (download ), but we also released the financial advisor publications as well (see here). If you haven’t received them, please be sure to let our team know, and we’ll forward those along to you. These documents just scratch the surface of our research and analysis offering. Please don’t forget to RSVP for an upcoming orientation webinar here. We also wanted to make you aware of the update cycle for our ETF analysis. We’ve now released the 2016 versions for the Consumer Staples (), Consumer Discretionary
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 1
April 4, 2016
TJX raised its quarterly dividend 24% March 29. Image Source: Mike Mozart Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending April 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): now $0.155 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Banner (BANR): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. City Holding (CHCO): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Dollarama (DLMAF): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Glacier Bancorp (GBCI): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was
Don’t Be Tempted By Homebuilders’ Dividends
April 4, 2016
Image Source: Toll Brothers By Kris Rosemann The underproduction of homes since 2008 has created pent-up demand, providing a material tailwind for homebuilders as of late. According to estimates from Toll Brothers (TOL), the total estimated shortfall of housing starts from the period 2008-2014 was 5.7 million. That equates to an annual shortfall in production of ~818,000 new homes, providing significant opportunities for the homebuilding group as a whole moving forward. Pent-up housing demand has been accruing for years, and stronger general economic conditions, including lower unemployment, modest wage growth, and general consumer confidence continue to drive demand. A favorable jobs/wage market has the potential to provide a material boost for homebuilders, and additional demand could be found in the
