Alert: Adding Protection! Finally Acting on Netflix Idea
May 17, 2017
Image Source: Esther Vargas We’re adding protection to the newsletter portfolios and finally making a move on Netflix. By Brian Nelson, CFA Nothing should be alarming in this note. We’ve talked about our concerns about the broader stock market for some time now, and how we think we’re in a bubble. One has to look no further than the very intro to the May edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter here (pdf), released Monday, for example, or our continued reminder of how markets perform during periods of contractionary monetary policy. Of course we’re still content with riding the market higher–should it go in that direction, perhaps on the backs of incremental index investors and dividend growth re-investors–but we’re also being
Nelson: Reminding You of Some of Our Favorites
May 16, 2017
Sometimes we talk way too much about the incremental, the periphery, and the tactical tweaks, and not enough about our favorite ideas included in the newsletter portfolios. Let’s cover four of our favorites. By Brian Nelson, CFA Apple The market has seemingly always had Apple’s (AAPL) shares mispriced. Our fair value estimate of the iPhone giant has been above its trading price for years, and we’ve included the company in both newsletter portfolios since inception. It’s been a win-win for Valuentum investors and dividend growth investors alike. A look at Apple’s rating history (newest to oldest) showcases just how much conviction we’ve had in the idea, and shares have now almost converged to our present $165 per share fair value
Podcast: Defense Spending and the Explosion of Cyber Crime
May 15, 2017
The Valuentum analyst team discusses trends in US and global defense spending and the explosion of Internet crime that is fueling investment in cyber security both in the public and private sectors. ~7 mins. This podcast was originally published November 3, 2016. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or click the link here. Software – Security: CHKP, FEYE, FTNT, IMPV, PANW, PFPT, SYMC, VRSN Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson for Valuentum Securities, and today I have joining me on our podcast Mr. Kris Rosemann and Mr. Chris Araos. Today, we are going to talk about the landscape for defense spending
Newsletter Alert: Title Withheld – Members Only
May 15, 2017
We’re as surprised as you are by this alert, but we’re removing GE from both newsletter portfolios. After rolling our discounted cash flow model forward (2017 first forecast year) and in light of GE’s release of its 10-Q late April, which showed surprisingly poor cash flow from operations conversion (negative $1.6 billion in industrial cash flow from operations) and only modest capital spending reductions (two key components of the Dividend Cushion ratio), we no longer have the confidence in shares as we did before. But why the change and why now? New information in the 10-Q, and new forecasts in our newly rolled-forward discounted cash flow model. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA We had just finished saying how
eBay Up 50%+ Since Nelson’s Open Letter to Yahoo CEO
May 14, 2017
In February 2016, President of Investment Research at Valuentum penned an open letter to Yahoo’s CEO Marissa Mayer. In it, he said a combination of Yahoo-eBay would be substantially value-creating for shareholders. eBay’s stock has advanced 50%+ since that letter. By Valuentum Analysts We don’t write letters to CEOs often, but when we do, we have good reason. In February 2016, Yahoo (YHOO) had been under major pressure to monetize its stake in Alibaba (BABA), and CEO Marissa Mayer had faced continuous and tremendous criticism during her tenure. Working under the assumption that Yahoo wanted to monetize its stake in Alibaba at that time and put cash to work, President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson wrote in an
Podcast: The Hazards of Mortgage REITs
May 9, 2017
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks mortgage REITs and the concept of spread risk that may lead to steep book value declines and weakened dividend health across the industry. ~5 mins. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or select the link here. Kris Rosemann: Hi, I am Kris Rosemann for Valuentum Securities. Today on our podcast President of Investment Research Brian Nelson is going walk us through some of our thoughts on mortgage REITs (REM). Brian could you explain to us why we at Valuentum don’t like mortgage REITs and maybe go through some of the risks individual investors should be concerned with that are not as prevalent as a normal operating
Apple Rallying Considerably!
May 9, 2017
Newsletter portfolio holding Apple continues to defy gravity.
Alphabet, Intel, MLPs and More
April 28, 2017
Let’s keep the good times going, would you say? Brian Nelson, CFA The good news during this first-quarter earnings season hasn’t let up, and we must say we’re very happy to say so. Newsletter portfolio holdings, our favorite ideas at any time, continue to exceed expectations. The Valuentum Buying Index helps us identify new ideas to consider, while the Dividend Cushion ratio helps us avoid dividend cuts. The Economic Castle rating helps us identify the best economic value-creators across our coverage universe. All three of these metrics (and our opinions on many more, including fair values/ranges and the like) you can’t find anywhere else but at Valuentum. We don’t leave any stones unturned when it comes to investment analysis. In
