Subscribe — Limited # Remaining for Exclusive, Retail Reports as Expected
May 21, 2019
The Exclusive publication is limited to only 1,000 members. Make sure that you reserve your spot. You receive one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short-idea consideration in each monthly edition. Through March 2019, for capital appreciation ideas highlighted in the Exclusive publication, the success rate is nearly 82% (81.8%). For short-idea considerations highlighted in the Exclusive publication, the success rate is nearly 79% (78.8%). Adjusted for currency, not one income idea has cut its payout. That’s after 33 monthly editions!!! — The Valuentum Exclusive highlights one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short-idea consideration each month. The success rates have been absolutely fantastic since its inception. Each idea is highlighted in thesis form, and our
Hardcore: Tesla’s Stock May Collapse to Double Digits
May 20, 2019
Image: The Valuentum Buying Index almost called the top in Tesla’s shares. Whenever a CEO comes out saying that the company must engage in “hardcore” cost cutting, bad things happen. Morale is likely in the pits at the car company, and cost takeouts will probably cut more than just some excess fat. The downward spiral at Tesla has been in the works for many months now, but the writing is on the wall for a major disappointment that truly resets reality for shareholders. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I’ve given CEO Elon Musk the benefit of the doubt. As a fellow founder and entrepreneur with skin in the game, I can understand some of the challenges that leaders face.
Our Reports on Stocks in the Health Care Providers & Services Industry
May 20, 2019
Structure of the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry Firms in the healthcare providers/services industry provide a range of services: help pharma/biotech companies develop prescription medicines; perform various diagnostic testing services to patients, physicians, payors, and employers; and offer healthcare information technology solutions to hospitals and other organizations, which is supported by the sector’s focus on cost containment and improving outcomes. Drug development entities benefit from outsourcing of R&D by pharma/biotech firms, diagnostic testing companies benefit from the growing/aging population and the increasing need for clinical testing, which is an essential service. US healthcare reform will present both opportunities and challenges. We’re neutral on the group. We have dropped coverage of the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry.
Cisco Delivers, Deere Disappoints, Pinterest Plummets, More Reports
May 17, 2019
Cisco Delivers, Deere Disappoints, Pinterest Plummets, More Reports — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: AMAT, BIDU, CSCO, DE, FLO, INTC, JACK, PINS, WMT — Applied Materials (AMAT): Applied Materials reported better-than-expected second-quarter fiscal 2019 results May 16, but the headline print wasn’t that exciting. Revenue dropped 23%, its operating margin gave back 6.3 percentage points, and diluted earnings per share dropped 34%, but the results were “toward the top-end of (its) guidance range, reflecting solid execution across the company in a business environment that remains challenging.” The chip-maker’s risk profile is too high for our taste, and we just have a hard time getting comfortable with the instability of operating results. We value shares of Applied Materials at $48 each,
Nvidia Scraps Full-Year Guidance, Market Balks
May 17, 2019
Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) designs chips for data centers, PCs and laptops with a heavy focus on gaming performance, next-generation automobiles (such as autonomous vehicles), and other purposes. The company is built around two segments, GPUs (graphics processing units for visual, AI, and cloud computing uses) and Tegra Processors (integrates GPUs and CPUs, central processing units, into one chip for mobile devices, gaming systems, entertainment systems, autonomous vehicles, and other uses). Management breaks down the markets Nvidia is targeting into four categories; Gaming, Visual Performance, Datacenter, and Automotive. Due to its low payout ratio, Nvidia yields just 0.4% as of this writing, but we think the company could become a meaningful
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 17
May 17, 2019
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Adams Resources (AE): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Business First Bancshares (BFST): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. Chubb (CB): now $0.75 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.73. CoreSite Realty (COR): now $1.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.03. Curtiss-Wright (CW): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Extended Stay America (STAY): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22.
Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger
May 14, 2019
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively. — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time. — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well. — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were
Our Reports on Stocks in the Media Industry
May 14, 2019
Image Source: Sarah Ackerman Structure of the Media Industry The media industry consists of mass media firms that have operations spanning: the entertainment business, cable networks, publishing, local market broadcasting and outdoor advertising. The entertainment and cable network businesses are highly competitive, as rivals generate audience interest to sell advertising and premium subscription services. The publishing business continues to experience a secular shift toward electronic distribution, while local market broadcasting and outdoor advertising compete for advertising revenues with other regional media. We’re generally neutral on the overall structure of the group. Media – Advertising: CCO, DAKT, IPG, LAMR, MDP, MWW, OMC Media – CATV: AMCX, CMCSA, DISCA, DISH, VIA Media – Entertainment: CNK, DIS, IMAX, ISCA, LYV, MSG, NFLX, NWSA, RGC
When We Get It “Wrong” — How To Think About Our Methodology In Action
May 13, 2019
When We Get It “Wrong” — How To Think About Our Methodology In Action Image: Chipotle (CMG) was one of our best calls in 2019. Image: Verint (VRNT) was a controversial idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio that worked out great for members this year. Image: Visa (V) has been the top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter for as long as we can remember. In December 2017, when we migrated to weighting ranges for ideas in the newsletter portfolio, the company’s “weight” was 8.6%. The image above shows its performance relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) since then. Source (pdf). — Let’s talk about the newsletter portfolios, some areas where we’ve made mistakes, and how some members use our services.
Booking Holdings’ Quarter; Still More MLP Transparency Needed, More Reports
May 13, 2019
— Booking Holdings’ Quarter; Still More MLP Transparency Needed, More Reports — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ALB, BKNG, DDD, ET, GPRO, JD, KDP, OSTK, SONO, YELP — Albemarle (ALB): Albemarle remains on our list of unique ideas in the chemicals space. The company is heavily tied to lithium production, and it has one of the lowest-cost positions for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide (a source of sustainable competitive advantage). We view this as a fantastic opportunity, especially as it relates to expectations for a surge in electric vehicle demand in coming years. Though lithium represents just one portion of its specialty chemicals operations (it also produces bromine specialties and catalysts), the company’s diversification has rewarded shareholders with more than
