Fed Cuts 50 Basis Points, Expect More Market Volatility Ahead
March 3, 2020
Image Source: FOMC The emergency 50-basis point Fed rate cut announced March 3 was largely expected by the marketplace in light of growing economic concerns due to COVID-19, but it does nothing to immunize against COVID-19 and little to stabilize the situation. We continue to monitor the situation closely, and we expect ongoing volatility in the coming days and months as the situation with COVID-19 remains fluid. Having moved to defensive positions in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in January and having capitalized on the “crash protection” put, we are preparing for our next move. For now, we’re watching and waiting, and we encourage readers that have not yet picked up their copy of
Analyzing Parsons: A Defense, Intelligence, and Critical Infrastructure Solutions Company
March 2, 2020
Image Source: Parsons Corporation – February 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Parsons Corporation (PSN) is a provider of technical design, engineering, and software solutions to markets within the realm of defense, intelligence, threat detection and mitigation, cybersecurity, critical and transportation infrastructure, mobility solutions, connected communities, and more. The company went public in May 2019 and has since used those IPO proceeds to fund its growth story, including the acquisition of OGSystems during the first half of 2019 (which focuses on “geospatial intelligence, big data analytics, and threat mitigation”) and QSR in the second half of 2019 (which “specializes in radio frequency spectrum survey, record and playback; signals intelligence; and electronic warfare missions”). The company continues to generate value with
Self-Storage Industry Faces a Rocky 2020, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Bright
March 2, 2020
Image Source: CubeSmart – November 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan With housing costs rising aggressively in “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” cities across the East and West coasts in the US, that has created an immense need from households for additional storage space but at a much lower cost than simply buying a larger home, apartment, or condo. This has created a major secular growth trend that we’ve highlighted repeatedly in our High Yield Dividend Newsletter (‘HYDN’) by including shares of CubeSmart (CUBE) and Public Storage (PSA) in our HYDN portfolio, both of which are self-storage focused real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’). Click here for more information on our HYDN. Both self-storage REITs have steadily grown their already sizable
COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies
March 1, 2020
Image Source: CDC. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our dearest members: — The world is being challenged today by what some including Bill Gates believe might be a “once-in-a-century pathogen.” We do not know the eventual outcome, whether the impact of this illness ends up being as profound as the Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919 (which inflicted a death toll in the tens of millions), but we maintain our view the markets have yet to come to grips with the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity and potential ramifications on the global economy and the banking system. — What is currently a “biological” crisis may turn into an all-out global financial crisis, one that could end up worse than the 2008/2009 mortgage meltdown. Instead
Our Reports on Stocks in the Software (Graphics) Industry
March 1, 2020
Structure of the Software (Graphics) Industry The software (graphics) industry is composed of a variety of firms from online gaming entities to technology-based-language learning companies. Industry constituents compete for the leisure time, attention and discretionary spending of consumers. The social gaming space, in particular, is evolving rapidly, and new entrants will inevitably drive down outsize returns over time. Performance of many participants is “hit” driven. If companies don’t deliver “hit” products to the market, operating results will suffer. Rapid technological change makes obsolescence a possibility. We don’t like the group’s structure. For our coverage of firms in the Software (Graphics) Industry, please click here.
Dow Down 3000+ Points This Week — Interested in Options? This Might Be for You
February 28, 2020
Image: We “added” out of the money put options on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Monday morning, February 24. The markets have crashed since. Hi everyone, We trust you are well and staying safe during this crisis. One of the biggest takeaways of our book, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, is just how volatile the markets might become in the event of the next crisis as a result of price-agnostic trading, or what we define as passive indexing and quantitative algorithmic trading–buying and selling anything at any price irrespective of intrinsic value. Well, that next crisis has now arrived. After our call to “add” deep out-of-the-money put options to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter
Home Depot Reports Fourth Quarter Amid Rising Exogenous Headwinds
February 28, 2020
Image Shown: Home Depot Inc has had plenty of success building off of and expanding its ‘Pro’ ecosystem as it relates to generating nice comparable sales growth. Image Source: Home Depot – 2019 Investor and Analyst Day IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 25, Home Depot Inc (HD) reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2019 (period ended February 2, 2020) which matched top-line consensus estimates and beat bottom-line consensus estimates. What really caught the market’s attention was Home Depot’s strong comparable sales performance, which was up 5.2% overall and 5.3% in the US during the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis (for the whole fiscal year, Home Depot’s overall and US comparable sales rose by 3.5% and
Has the Stock Market Crash Begun?
February 27, 2020
Image: CDC. Transmission electron microscopic image of an isolate from the first U.S. case of COVID-19, formerly known as 2019-nCoV. The spherical viral particles, colorized blue, contain cross-section through the viral genome, seen as black dots. Dear members: This article is our fourth update on COVID-19. The previous three installments can be found here (Feb 22), here (Feb 7) and here (Jan 31). We trust you and yours are well during this global crisis. It’s hard to turn on the television these days without hearing about COVID-19, a novel coronavirus and respiratory illness that continues to spread from person to person around the world. COVID-19 is deadly, and particularly deadly among those 60 years of age and older and those
Republic Services Further Showcases Why It’s a Top Quality Defensive Firm
February 26, 2020
Image Shown: We added Republic Services Inc to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020, with shares of RSG included at a modest weighting. By Callum Turcan On February 13, waste management company Republic Services Inc (RSG) reported fourth quarter and full-year results for 2019. We added shares of RSG with a modest weighting to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio back on January 13 (link here covering those changes) as part of our shift towards more defensive names in light of rising exogenous headwinds facing the global economy. Waste management services are always in demand, and while trash and recycling needs can fluctuate, this is a very recession-resistant space. Shares of RSG yield ~1.6% as of this writing
Berkshire Reports 2019 Earnings
February 25, 2020
By Callum Turcan Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported fourth quarter and full-year results on Saturday February 22, and we appreciate the firm’s performance across most of its business lines, keeping in mind that losses at its insurance-underwriting business during the fourth quarter weakened its company-wide performance. That being said, the insurance business can be volatile at times, which is why we appreciate Berkshire’s large railroad, utility, consumer goods, and other business segments. On the topic of Berkshire’s insurance-related exposure to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic (which has since spread from China (FXI, MCHI, KWEB) to the rest of the world, shutting down economies in South Korea (EWY), Italy (EWI), and elsewhere), insurance firms fundamentally altered the structure of their policies after the
