Santander Remains Well-Capitalized
April 29, 2020
Europe is overbanked with too much capacity, which means little or no earnings power for many of the players involved, including Santander Europe. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19. By Matthew Warren Banco Santander (SAN) reported tough first-quarter results April 28, with total income (the IFRS equivalent of GAAP revenue) down 2% and attributable profit down 82% to EUR 331 million. Profit before the provision build would have been up 1%, so clearly the expectations for upcoming bad debts are what really sunk the quarterly results, which one can see in the below graphic. Image Source: Santander
Detroit Automakers on the Ropes, Tesla Continues to Dominate
April 29, 2020
Image Source: GM We’re not sure the Detroit automakers will ever be the same after COVID-19. The global pandemic might be the knock-out blow that keeps them on the canvas for a long time, as the group continues to face changing consumer preferences and the rise and dominance of Tesla. Cash preservation is the name of the game at the moment, as they await a restart to some of their U.S. operations May 18. By Brian Nelson, CFA The legacy automakers continue to be in a world of hurt as environmentally conscious consumers begin to dominate the landscape. It is an irreversible trend that General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) once had in their hands to capitalize
Good News for Facebook Ahead of Earnings Report
April 28, 2020
Image Shown: Facebook Inc’s top-line has experienced meaningful growth in recent years. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2019 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holdings is Facebook Inc (FB), and we appreciate its pristine balance sheet (plenty of cash on hand and no debt on the books as of the end of 2019), promising growth trajectory (short-term headwinds aside, digital advertising is a secular growth market and likely to bounce back strongly once the pandemic subsides), and we would like to highlight that shares of FB trade at a meaningful discount to our fair value estimate (which sits at $234 per share) as of this writing. Recently, several
COVID-19 Idea Consideration Chipotle Continues to Deliver
April 27, 2020
Image Shown: Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc have sharply rebounded over the past month as investors started to take into consideration the firm’s pristine balance sheet, ability to meet consumer demand via delivery services, and quality cash flow profile, keeping short-term headwinds in mind. By Callum Turcan On April 21, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) reported earnings for the first quarter of 2020 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Same-store sales rose 3.3% year-over-year almost entirely due to the strength of its digital business where sales were up almost 81% and represented over 26% of Chipotle’s sales last quarter. Chipotle’s GAAP revenues were up almost 8% year-over-year last quarter though its GAAP operating income fell by over
Intel Is Well-Positioned to Ride Out the Storm
April 27, 2020
Image Source: Intel Corporation – January 2020 CES Presentation By Callum Turcan Intel Corporation (INTC) reported first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates; however, guidance for the fiscal second quarter was softer than expected and shares of INTC initially sold off on the report. However, there’s a lot to like in the update, and we continue to like shares of Intel as a holding in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Intel is very well-positioned to ride out the storm caused by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and shares of INTC yield ~2.3% as of this writing. Balance Sheet Strength The firm had $20.8 billion
Coca-Cola’s Debt Load Makes It Difficult to Navigate Rough Market Conditions
April 27, 2020
Image Source: The Coca-Cola Company – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 21, The Coca-Cola Company (KO) reported first-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended March 27, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, and furthermore, flat organic sales beat consensus estimates as well (which analysts expected would decline modestly year-over-year). Coca-Cola’s Asia Pacific business was weakened by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and organic revenues in the region (an adjusted non-GAAP figure) were down 7% year-over-year last fiscal quarter. Strong growth in North America (organic revenues were up 4% year-over-year) and Latin America (organic revenues were up a whopping 13% year-over-year) due to greater sales volumes and favorable price increases/product mix shifts offset
Emergency Update on COVID-19
April 25, 2020
President of Investment Research at Valuentum, Brian Nelson provides an emergency update on COVID-19. He talks about how policymakers have dropped the ball thus far, and why investors should not let their guards down, despite what has been a nice bounce from the March 23 bottom. As of April 24, the world has now borne witness to the deaths of nearly 182,000 people from Coronavirus disease, or COVID-19, with more than 2.6 million confirmed cases. The United States remains the epicenter of the global pandemic with the country confirming 830,000 cases and more than 42,000 deaths. The sad reality is that, despite the many months that have now passed, medical professionals know little more about the disease than when news
What To Do Now?
April 22, 2020
— Dear members: — It’s Brian here. It seems like I went to bed February 22 after writing the following note to you — Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus and P/E Ratios — and just woke up now. That’s how crazy the markets have been. It’s been two months of a whirlwind of a ride. For those just joining today, we recapped the events since our warning about the Great Crash of 2020 on February 22 in the following two videos — The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution (April 12) and Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway? (April 19). — Before going on, I want to pause
AT&T Has the Potential Resilience to Ride Out the Storm With Its Dividend Intact
April 22, 2020
Image Source: AT&T Inc – First Quarter 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio holding AT&T Inc (T) reported first-quarter 2020 earnings on April 22 that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates; however, management noted right off the bat that the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic shaved $0.05 in EPS off of AT&T’s performance. The cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament and ongoing losses of its premium TV subscribers (a product of structural declines at DirecTV) weighed on AT&T’s results last quarter. Shares of T yield ~7.1% as of this writing. AT&T continued to generate meaningful free cash flows, keeping various headwinds in mind, as $8.9 billion in net operating cash flows
Lockheed Martin Marches Forward During These Harrowing Times
April 22, 2020
Image Source: Lockheed Martin Corporation – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 21, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) reported first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended March 29, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Even better, management largely kept Lockheed Martin’s fiscal 2020 guidance intact, save for a marginal reduction in the firm’s expected sales which is primarily due to supply chain and production issues that the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is creating for Lockheed Martin’s ‘Aeronautics’ business. With that in mind, Lockheed Martin is still forecasting ~6% revenue growth this year, highlighting the resilience of defense contractor’s financials even during harrowing times such as these. Shares
