ICYMI — Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
November 2, 2020
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. — In many dividend-targeted
Clorox Is Thriving in a Post-COVID-19 World
November 2, 2020
Dividend growth investors looking for consumer staples exposure coupled with a hedge against future epidemics/pandemics might view Clorox as an excellent consideration for their portfolios. Shares yield a healthy ~2.1% at the time of this writing. By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 2, Clorox (CLX) reported stellar fiscal first-quarter earnings (period ending September 30) and raised its fiscal 2021 outlook. Revenue during the fiscal first quarter advanced 27% while diluted earnings per share more than doubled, to $3.22. Both figures came in better than expected. Fiscal 2021 revenue growth is now targeted at 5%-9% (versus guidance for a flat- to low-single digit increase previously) while diluted EPS is now expected in the range of $7.70-$7.95 for the year (versus $7.64
Earnings Brief: Facebook and Alphabet
October 30, 2020
Image: Facebook (orange) and Alphabet (blue) have advanced 26% and 20%, respectively, thus far in 2020 versus roughly flat performance of the S&P 500. We continue to like both names as the highest-weighted constituents in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates of Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) following their respective third-quarter reports, released October 29. Both Facebook and Alphabet are the highest-weighted positions in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and they have been for some time now. Collectively 26% of the newsletter portfolio at the high end of their respective weighting ranges, shares of Facebook and Alphabet have advanced more than 20% this year, while the S&P
Our $140 Fair Value Estimate of Apple Remains Unchanged
October 30, 2020
Image Shown: Apple Inc maintained its enormous net cash position at the end of fiscal 2020. In the graphic up above, Apple’s cash-like items are underlined in red and its debt-like items are underlined in blue. Image Source: Apple Inc – 8-K SEC filing covering the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 with additions from the author. By Callum Turcan On October 29, Apple Inc (AAPL) reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended September 26, 2020). Its fiscal 2020 GAAP revenues and GAAP operating income were up 6% and 4% year-over-year, respectively. Growth was driven by its Mac, iPad, ‘Wearables, Home and Accessories,’ and ‘Services’ offerings while its iPhone revenues dropped somewhat. Longer term, we are optimistic
Newmont Posts a Stellar Earnings Report, Raises Dividend
October 30, 2020
Image Shown: An overview of Newmont Corporation’s recent accomplishments. Image Source: Newmont Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Shares of Newmont Corporation (NEM) are included in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio because we view its long-term dividend growth trajectory quite favorably, and the gold miner has not disappointed. At the start of 2020, Newmont significantly increased its quarterly dividend as we covered in this article here. Due to a combination of its enlarged dividend, very promising growth outlook, sizable expected synergies from its 2019 acquisition of Goldcorp, and its stellar cash flow profile, we added shares of NEM as a holding to our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio on January 13, 2020 (link here). As
News Brief: We Like Large Cap Growth, Big Cap Tech, and the NASDAQ
October 29, 2020
Image: Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 150 percentage points (15,000 basis points). Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed a small cap value ETF by over 275 percentage points, or 27,500 basis points (image not shown). We expect continued outperformance from companies within the large cap growth bucket. By Brian Nelson, CFA The markets have been see-sawing the past couple weeks as the global economy continues to recover and much of the world awaits the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election. We think the equity markets have largely factored in the forecasted epidemiology curve with respect to COVID-19, including infection spikes across the world, so recent market volatility
Disney Is One Of Our Favorite Streaming Companies
October 29, 2020
Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company continue to recover from the pandemic-induced crash in March 2020. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite companies with significant exposure to the video streaming arena is the entertainment behemoth The Walt Disney Company (DIS). The company’s various streaming services include ESPN+, Disney+, Hulu, among others. On October 12, Disney announced a major restructuring which effectively reorganized several of its business operating segments around supporting its video streaming ambitions, with an eye towards ensuring sizable investments in original content would be put towards good use. Overview of Disney’s Historical Video Streaming Performance To set the stage, let us first cover Disney’s historical performance to highlight why we view the company’s growth outlook
ALERT: Removing Intel (INTC) from the Newsletter Portfolios
October 28, 2020
ALERT: Removing Intel (INTC) from the Newsletter Portfolios Image: Intel’s share price performance since the inaugural edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We’re removing shares of Intel from both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Today, we are removing Intel (INTC) from both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. Intel has been a part of both newsletter portfolios for a long time. The stock was included in the September 2011 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter with a ~2% weighting in the portfolio at $19.89 per share, and it was included in the inaugural edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter (January 2012) with a large 7% weighting
We’ve Updated Our Terms and Conditions
October 28, 2020
We’ve Updated Our Terms and Conditions October 28, 2020 valuentum.com/ info@valuentum.com Dear Valuentum members: We wanted to let you know that we’ve updated Valuentum’s User Agreement – our Terms and Conditions as well as the Disclaimer on our website. We think the updates will allow us to better serve investors for the long haul. Our goal is to continuously increase the value you get from us, and the Exclusive publication, High Yield Dividend Newsletter, new options commentary and our plans to manage portfolios in the future through a newly-created registered investment adviser are just a few great examples of our dedication to serve. Many members over the years have asked us to manage money. Although separate from Valuentum,
We’re Still Huge Fans of Microsoft
October 28, 2020
Image Shown: A snapshot of Microsoft Corporation’s first quarter fiscal 2021 performance. We continue to be huge fans of the cash-rich tech giant. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – First Quarter Fiscal 2021 IR PowerPoint Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 27, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended September 30, 2020) that blew past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Its GAAP revenues were up 12% year-over-year, hitting $37.2 billion, while its GAAP diluted EPS jumped 32% higher on a year-over-year basis, hitting $1.82 last fiscal quarter. Leading the charge was Microsoft’s cloud-computing Azure segment, which reported 48% year-over-year sales growth, and its Dynamics 365 segment (includes offerings that meet enterprise resource planning and customer relationship
