ICE’s Purchase of Ellie Mae Gives Us Pause
November 12, 2020
Image Source: IntercontinentalExchage Intercontinental Exchange’s acquisitive behavior and weakening balance sheet have given us pause. The company may have bitten off more than it can chew with its $11 billion cash and stock acquisition of Ellie Mae, a cloud-based provider in mortgage finance, and we question its new debt-funded strategic direction, which takes it further from its core bread-and-butter operations we liked so much. By Brian Nelson, CFA The exchanges industry consists of firms that deliver trading, clearing, exchange technology, and regulatory securities listing. Industry constituents include the NASDAQ (NDAQ), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), among others. These firms carve out competitive advantages via scale (operating the largest market for a given financial instrument)
Altria May Never Make A Comeback
November 12, 2020
Image Source: Altria By Brian Nelson, CFA About 15 years ago, I picked up a text from Professor Jeremy Siegel out of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, The Future for Investors (1). I must have been at one of his talks. I ended up getting a signed copy from him; it was a neat experience. In any case, perhaps one of the more striking takeaways from his 2005 book was the following excerpt: Some readers may be surprised that (Altria) is a top performer for investors in the face of the onslaught of government restrictions and legal actions that have cost the firm tens of billions of dollars and threaten the cigarette manufacturer with bankruptcy. But in
Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine Not a Catalyst for Portfolio Changes
November 11, 2020
Image: BioNTech. Next Generation Immunotherapy Presentation, October 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA The world received great news this week that the days of this terrible COVID-19 pandemic may finally be numbered. On November 9, Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) announced that “their mRNA-based vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, against SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated evidence of efficacy against COVID-19 in participants without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection.” Here is what Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla had to add with respect to the development: Today is a great day for science and humanity. The first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides the initial evidence of our vaccine’s ability to prevent COVID-19. We are reaching this critical milestone in our vaccine development
Realty Income Remains Resilient and Its Outlook is Improving
November 11, 2020
Image Shown: An overview of Realty Income Corporation’s asset base and historical financial performance. Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On November 2, Realty Income Corporation (O) posted third quarter earnings for 2020 that saw the real estate investment trust’s (‘REIT’) funds from operations (‘FFO’) come in flat year-over-year at $0.82 per share, while its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) declined by 2% year-over-year, hitting $0.81 per share. Realty Income invests in single-tenant commercial properties, and its business has faced headwinds from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, things are starting to improve, though there is ample room for additional improvement. We like the relative resilience of Realty Income’s financials
McDonald’s: Holding Up Well During the Pandemic
November 10, 2020
By Brian Nelson, CFA Nothing seems to be able to stop McDonald’s. Remember the documentary Super Size Me (2004)? For those that may not have seen the award-winning film, director Morgan Spurlock filmed his experiences eating only McDonald’s food three times a day for a 30-day consecutive period. He made a point to eat every item on the menu, and if memory serves us well, anytime he was asked to “Super Size” his meal, he had to oblige. The documentary measured the effects of eating only McDonald’s food on his health in just this short period of time. During his McDonald’s-binge, Spurlock consumed an average of 5,000 calories a day, roughly twice that of a healthy diet, and he ended
Reiterating Our $229 Fair Value Estimate for Berkshire Hathaway
November 10, 2020
Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B are moving on upwards. Berkshire Hathaway Inc reported third quarter 2020 earnings this past Saturday, November 7. The insurance and industrial conglomerate reported that its GAAP income almost doubled year-over-year as its investment portfolio reported large gains. However, that masked pressures at some of Berkshire Hathaway’s myriad businesses as the company navigated the storm created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Berkshire Hathaway continued to generate significant free cash flows during the first nine months of 2020, and we are reiterating our fair value estimate of $229 per share of Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares. By Callum Turcan On November 7, Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported third quarter earnings for
Public Storage Continues to Shine
November 10, 2020
Image Shown: Shares of Public Storage have recovered from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic and have been on an upward climb over the past few months. By Callum Turcan On November 4, Public Storage (PSA) reported earnings for the third quarter of 2020. As expected, headwinds created by the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed on its financial performance during this period; however, that did not stop the self-storage real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) from being very free cash flow positive. The long-term outlook for the self-storage industry in metropolitan areas in the US and elsewhere remains quite promising given the desire for households to maximize living space within their housing unit at a given budget. We include shares of
CubeSmart Is One of Our Favorite REITs
November 9, 2020
Image Source: CubeSmart – October 2020 Deluxe Storage Transaction IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On November 5, the self-storage real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) CubeSmart (CUBE) reported third quarter earnings for 2020 that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus funds from operations (‘FFO’) estimates. The REIT’s financial performance has taken a hit from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though CubeSmart adjusted by launching its contactless online rental program SmartRental back in April. Furthermore, after suspending its normal schedule for rental rate increases earlier this year, CubeSmart resumed those increases in June and July. CubeSmart has also since resumed its normal delinquency process, on a jurisdiction by jurisdiction basis. We include shares of CubeSmart as a holding in our High
Garbage Hauler Republic Services Doesn’t Disappoint in Third Quarter
November 6, 2020
Image: Republic Services By Brian Nelson, CFA We like the garbage hauler space given the relative stability of its operations and the pricing power that emanates from landfill and disposal capacity. Garbage must eventually go somewhere, and those that own the disposal capacity are the ones that can control the value chain. The municipal solid waste industry in the United States is an oligopoly, dominated by the Big 3, Waste Management (WM), Republic Services (RSG), and Waste Connections (WCN). We include Republic Services in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. On November 5, Republic Services reported third-quarter results that showed the resilience of the firm’s business model. The trash taker’s adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 230 basis points, while it delivered double-digit
Cat or Deere or Neither?
November 5, 2020
Image: Deere equipment. Deere’s stock has been a high-flyer during the past several months. By Brian Nelson, CFA The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) measures a broad swath of entities tied to the metals and mining sector, weighting names such as Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), United States Steel (X), Arconic Corp (ARNC), Worthington Industries (WOR), and Freeport-McMoran Inc. (FCX) near the top. It also includes one of our favorite miners, Newmont Corp (NEM), but we generally don’t like the metals and mining space, more generally. Year-to-date, the sector is down ~17% and ~11% during the past 12 months; meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up ~7% year-to-date as it has advanced ~12% during the past 12 months. Metals and mining
