Apple, Facebook, and Tesla Report Earnings
January 28, 2021
Image Shown: Facebook Inc continues to steadily grow its active user base, primarily by leveraging and expanding its international presence. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: AAPL, FB, TSLA We continue to witness unusual trading activity in the markets driven in large part by investors that are apparently communicating with each other over online forums such as Reddit. This trading activity is then being exacerbated by quantitative trend and momentum funds, generating levels of volatility in some names never before seen. On January 27 (link here), we sent out an alert to members noting that we shifted our newsletter portfolios to a 10%-20% cash weighting. Should
Three Newsletter Portfolio Ideas Post Stellar Earnings Updates: JNJ, LMT, MSFT
January 28, 2021
Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetic order by ticker: JNJ, LMT, MSFT Three of the newsletter portfolio ideas recently reported stellar earnings updates and provided promising outlooks that we want to draw to our members’ attention. With global health authorities working towards putting an end to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, aided by ongoing vaccine distribution efforts, the outlook for the global economy is bright and getting brighter. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) We include healthcare conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Shares of the company have been on a steep upward climb since early November 2020 as investors
Earnings Roundup of Three High-Yielding Firms: MMM, RTX, VZ
January 28, 2021
Image Source: 3M Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: MMM, RTX, VZ The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic generated substantial headwinds for the global economy in 2020 and for most businesses large and small, save for many firms operating in the IT sector. However, several large industrial and telecommunications companies are reporting that the outlook for 2021 looks quite bright, relatively speaking, as ongoing vaccine distribution efforts indicate the pandemic will be brought to an end sooner than expected. 3M (MMM) — Dividend Yield: ~3.3% The industrial conglomerate 3M Company (MMM) beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported fourth quarter earnings for 2020 on January 26. 3M has
ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
January 27, 2021
January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially
Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports Coming In: INTC, GGG, KMB, STLD
January 27, 2021
Image Source: Kimberly Clark Corporation – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: INTC, GGG, KMB, STLD Earnings season is upon us! Over the next few weeks, we should get a better idea of how corporations view the trajectory of the domestic and global economy now that coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine distribution efforts are well underway. We intend to cover the earnings reports of key companies across a range of industries and sectors in the coming weeks to provide a broad overview of how the economy fared during the end of calendar year 2020 and what to expect going forward. Intel (INTC) For starters, please be aware that we removed Intel Corporation
Procter & Gamble Remains a Great Free Cash Flow Generator
January 26, 2021
Image Shown: Shares of Procter & Gamble Co have started to shift back down towards the top end of our fair value estimate which sits at $120 per share of PG. In our view, investors have begun to factor in expectations that the firm’s growth rate of late will be incredibly hard to sustain over the coming years. Procter & Gamble is a solid company with great free cash flow generating abilities, but the run up in its share price during the second half of the 2020 calendar year was a tad overdone, in our view. By Callum Turcan On January 20, Procter & Gamble Co (PG) reported solid earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2021 (period ended December
ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity
January 25, 2021
We are putting short investors on high alert! By Brian Nelson, CFA In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading–or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations–would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Image Shown: The book Value Trap warned about the impending collapse of the value factor,
Following Up on Leading Semiconductor Equipment Supplier ASML Holding N.V.
January 24, 2021
Image Source: ASML Holding NV – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Shares of Netherlands-based ASML Holding NV (ASML), which supplies lithography systems and services to the semiconductor industry, have done incredibly well since we published our ASML Holding Is an Impressive Enterprise with a Pristine Balance Sheet and Rock-Solid Growth Trajectory article back on April 8, 2020 (link here). From April 8 to January 22, shares of ASML more than doubled. We strongly encourage members that have not done so to check out that article, as we laid out how ASML Holding’s lithography systems are an essential part of the semiconductor industry along with our reasoning behind why we view the company’s long-term outlook
IBM Is Still A Disappointment
January 22, 2021
We’ve never liked IBM. The company has all the attributes of a stock that we’d prefer to stay as far away from as possible. By Brian Nelson, CFA We received a few questions regarding IBM (IBM) from members, and we wanted to make this brief post. Prior to the company’s fourth-quarter 2020 results, released January 22, shares had a price-to-fair value (P/FV) ratio of 0.96 (1=fairly valued), and they were not included in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, or the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, or the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. This means that we have very little interest in the company, and our interest continues to be minimal. You can read our take on the firm’s track record in Value
We Expect Netflix to Turn Into a Free Cash Flow Generating Machine
January 22, 2021
Image Shown: Netflix Inc’s global paid subscriber base is expected to keep growing at a decent clip going forward, though at a slower pace than in the recent past. Image Source: Netflix Inc – Shareholder Letter covering its fourth quarter and full-year earnings in 2020 By Callum Turcan The proliferation of video streaming services during the past decade accelerated in 2020 due to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic forcing households to stay indoors, which in turn drove up demand for economical forms of at-home entertainment. During the early days of the video streaming services industry, subscriber growth was driven largely by the “cord cutting” trend in which households traded out more expensive cable/satellite TV packages (sometimes referred to as “premium” TV
