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By Brian Nelson, CFA
On October 15, ASML Holding (ASML) reported mixed third quarter results with revenue coming in a bit light relative to forecasts, but GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus estimate. Third quarter total net sales increased modestly year-over-year and totaled €7.5 billion on a gross margin of 51.6%. Net income came in at €2.1 billion. Quarterly net bookings in the quarter were €5.4 billion, better than the consensus estimate of €4.9 billion, of which €3.6 billion is EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography).
Management had the following to say about the results:
Our third-quarter total net sales of €7.5 billion and gross margin of 51.6% were in line with our guidance, reflecting a good quarter for ASML.
On the technology side, we see litho intensity continue to develop positively as EUV adoption gains momentum, including progress on High NA EUV. In line with our plans to support our customers in the 3D integration space, we shipped ASML’s first product serving Advanced Packaging, the TWINSCAN XT:260, an i-line scanner offering up to 4x productivity compared to existing solutions. Finally, our partnership with Mistral AI allows us to embed AI across our entire holistic portfolio, in order to increase the performance and productivity of our systems and the yield of our customers’ processes.
On the market side, we have seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers, both in leading-edge Logic and advanced DRAM. On the other hand, we expect China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026 to decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025.
We do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025. We will provide more details on our 2026 outlook in January.
Looking to the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML expects total net sales between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, the midpoint above the consensus forecast, and a gross margin between 51%-53%. For the full year 2025, total net sales are targeted to increase around 15% relative to 2024, with a gross margin around 52%. The company pays an interim dividend of €1.60 per ordinary share and repurchased around €148 million worth of shares in the third quarter. We like the momentum behind ASML’s business and continue to include shares in the ESG Newsletter portfolio.
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Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, DIA, VOT, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, RSP, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, and VOO. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.
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