Target Navigating a Highly Challenging Environment

Image Source: TradingView

By Brian Nelson, CFA

On May 21, Target Corporation (TGT) reported weak first quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than expectations. Net sales dropped 2.8% on a comparable sales decline of 3.8%, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.30 compared to adjusted earnings per share of $2.03 in the first quarter of 2024. Management had the following to say about the retail environment:

In the first quarter, our team navigated a highly challenging environment and focused on delivering the outstanding assortment, experience and value guests expect from Target. While our sales fell short of our expectations, we saw several bright spots in the quarter, including healthy digital growth, led by a 36 percent increase in same-day delivery through Target Circle 360, and our strongest designer collaboration in more than a decade, kate spade for Target. While these highlights reinforce our confidence in the underlying health of our business, we’re not satisfied with current performance and know we have opportunities to deliver faster progress on our roadmap for growth. This morning, we announced the establishment of a multi-year acceleration office, led by Michael Fiddelke, along with several leadership changes. These steps forward are intended to build more speed and agility into how we operate, and position key capabilities to drive long-term profitable growth. With these changes and the financial strength to continue investing in our business, I’m confident we can emerge an even stronger company over time.

Looking to fiscal 2025, Target expects a low-single digit decline in sales and adjusted earnings per share between $7.00-$9.00, when excluding gains from litigation settlements in the first quarter. Target’s results are consistent with an entity that is experiencing macroeconomic and competitive challenges. Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) are performing much better than Target, and we don’t expect this to change anytime soon. Target ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents against short- and long-term debt of $15.5 billion. Shares are trading roughly in-line with our fair value estimate. 

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