Image: UnitedHealth’s shares were pummeled after it lowered its 2025 earnings outlook.
By Brian Nelson, CFA
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported dismal first-quarter 2025 results that came in lower than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Revenues of $109.6 billion grew $9.1 billion year-over-year, while first quarter earnings were $6.95 per share, with adjusted earnings coming in at $7.20 per share. Management shared its disappointment in the commentary in the press release:
UnitedHealth Group grew to serve more people more comprehensively but did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead, and return to our long-term earnings growth rate target of 13 to 16%.
UnitedHealth Group lowered its 2025 performance outlook, now calling for net earnings of $24.65-$25.15 per share and adjusted earnings of $26-$26.50. For 2025, net earnings had been targeted in the range of $28.15-$28.65 and adjusted net earnings in the range of $29.50-$30.00 per share. Management pointed to two factors that drove the reduced earnings outlook:
Heightened care activity indications within UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare Advantage businesses, which became visible as the quarter closed, far above the planned 2025 increase which was consistent with the elevated levels in 2024. This activity was most notable within physician and outpatient services.
Unanticipated changes in the profile of Optum Health members impacting planned 2025 reimbursement due to unexpectedly minimal 2024 beneficiary engagement by plans exiting markets. In addition, a greater-than-expected impact to current and new complex patients from the ongoing Medicare funding reductions enacted by the previous administration.
During the first quarter of 2025, UnitedHealth Group’s cash flow from operations came in at $5.5 billion, and the firm returned nearly $5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. As it relates to the drivers negatively impacting its 2025 guidance, management noted that it “believes these factors to be highly addressable over the course of this year as well as it looks ahead to 2026.” Though we didn’t like the downward revision to its 2025 earnings outlook, UnitedHealth remains a cash cow, and we continue to like shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We value shares north of $600 each.
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Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, DIA, VOT, RSP, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE, DIA, RSP, SCHG, QQQ, QQQM, and VOO. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.
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