Home Depot Issues Fantastic Fourth-Quarter Results; Another Positive Sign for US Housing

Home Depot (HD) reported solid fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday that revealed strong comparable store sales and signs that the US housing market continues to strengthen. However, we think the firm’s shares are getting a bit expensive following its price move after earnings, and our $38 per share fair value estimate for the world’s largest home-improvement retailer remains unchanged.

Home Depot’s revenue advanced 5.9% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year ago thanks to a 5.7% jump in comparable store sales (6.1% in the US). The number of customer transactions increased 3.6%, while the average ticket expanded 2.4%. Unseasonally warmer weather and an improving housing market buoyed results and stimulated home-improvement demand in the period. We continue to believe that the bottom in the US housing market is finally behind us. Home Depot’s performance should continue to improve in coming periods as housing (and home improvement) demand advances through the course of 2012, in our opinion. 

Net earnings for the home-improvement retailer increased nearly 39% to $0.50 per share from $0.36 per share in the year-ago period (consensus was at $0.42 per share). Gross profit expansion was nearly 7% during the period and outpaced sales growth as the firm extracted greater profitability via cost-cutting endeavors and improved distribution measures. The increase in SG&A expenses also lagged the pace of revenue expansion in the quarter, driving over 28% growth at the operating-income level. We were very impressed with Home Depot’s ability to translate its solid revenue expansion into even greater increases on the operating line. Consolidated net earnings jumped nearly 32% in its fourth quarter, while share buybacks bolstered growth in earnings per share.

Looking ahead, Home Depot expects fiscal 2012 sales growth of 4% driven by low-single-digit comparable store sales growth. Earnings-per-share is expected to expand to $2.79 including share repurchases (consensus was at $2.77 per share) as the firm expects moderate gross margin expansion to lead to as much as 50 basis points in operating-margin expansion. Though we liked the firm’s outlook for the year, we remain on the sidelines based on valuation.