Intel Reduces Fourth-Quarter Revenue Forecast on Supply Chain Disruptions

On Monday, Intel (INTC) followed the path of other chipmakers like Texas Instruments (TXN), Altera (ALTR), and Lattice Semi (LSCC) and lowered its fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin outlook, blaming hard disk drive supply shortages from the recent flooding in Thailand. We are maintaining our fair value estimate for Intel (INTC), as our estimate of its intrinsic value is based on the company’s long-term cash-flow projections, which we think are still readily achievable. Plus, flooding in Thailand should only be a temporary supply chain issue, and we believe the rebuilding of inventories after the first quarter of next year will be a positive catalyst for Intel’s shares.

Intel said it now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be about $13.7 billion (+/- $300 million) versus its previous expectation of $14.7 billion (+/- $500 million). Intel also indicated that it now expects non-GAAP gross margin to be 65.5% (+/- a couple percentage points) in the fourth quarter, modestly lower than its previous expectation of 66% (+/- a couple percentage points). And while Intel noted that sales of personal computers are expected to be up sequentially in the fourth quarter, it mentioned that the worldwide PC supply chain continues to reduce inventories and microprocessor purchases due to ongoing hard disk drive supply shortages, a trend it expects to last through the first quarter of next year. The chipmaker, however, is optimistic that a rebuilding of microprocessor inventories will recover during the first half of 2012, and we agree. 

Though we weren’t pleased with the news today, it wasn’t totally unexpected given recent moves by its chipmaker peers in recent days and the well-documented flooding in Thailand and its potential impact on Intel’s operations. Though this represents yet another data point—in addition to DuPont (DD) and other chipmakers—that fourth-quarter earnings season may disappoint, we’ll be looking to capitalize on any price weakness from Intel in coming trading sessions and add to our relatively small position in our Best Ideas Newsletter. Overall, however, we’ll be looking to increase our cash position in our Best Ideas portfolio in coming weeks, and we continue to view Intel as one of the best income plays available on the market today.

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