Must Watch: MPT Failures and High Yield Dividend Breakdown Spiral!

publication date: Oct 23, 2022
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author/source: Valuentum Analysts
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Did you know that Valuentum's income ideas are holding up great this year, far better than the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio and what some call "sucker" yields, those companies with 8% dividend yields or higher?
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The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is down ~20% so far in 2022 and some high-yield stocks like mortgage REITs are down nearly 40%, but Valuentum's income-oriented simulated newsletter portfolios, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, are estimated to be down just 8.4% and just 10.1%, respectively, in 2022.
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Preventing huge drawdowns in retirement is the name of the game, and those pursuing modern portfolio theory (MPT) have been caught by surprise, while income investors reaching for 8%+ yields may have just experienced permanent capital impairment! Yes, the prices of some mortgage REITs, some equity REITs, and some MLPs may never return to their glory days.
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Tune into the videos to find out why.
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With a 20%-40% drawdown in 2022 on some of the areas we've warned time and time against, it could now take as much as a 30%-50% return for others just to get back to even. Please tune into these two videos to learn about the failures of modern portfolio theory and how some investors may now be caught in a high yield breakdown spiral with their retirement funds. Not good.
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On the other hand, Valuentum income-oriented members may be doing quite well, given the simulated performance of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. There are links and image links that correspond to the two videos below. Please be sure to watch them both, and let us know if you have any questions! Don't miss them!
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Videos
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Part One: Valuentum's President of Investment Research literally shines a spotlight on his book 'Value Trap' in how it predicted what we're seeing across retirement portfolios in 2022, from the failure of modern portfolio theory in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio to potentially permanent capital impairment with respect to high yield dividend stocks (those yielding north of 8%+). A cohort of retirees may now be caught in a high yield dividend breakdown spiral, as some losses on 8+ yielding equities could now represent permanent capital impairment. This is Part One of a series. Don't forget to tune into Part Two. Don't Miss It! To watch >>
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Part Two: Valuentum's President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, continues to put a spotlight on troubles that have plagued retirees this year. From the failure of MPT to a high yield dividend breakdown spiral, investors need to be paying attention to their investments now more than ever. In this video, Nelson talks about how to think about the hierarchy of Valuentum ideas, starting first and foremost with ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. Unlike fixed income instruments and speculative mortgage REITs and other "sucker" yields, whose equity price declines may imply permanent capital impairment, simulated newsletter ideas have the potential to bounce back considerably. Income-oriented ideas included in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio have done fantastic, relatively speaking, in 2022. Don't miss the second installment of this series! To watch >>
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About Our Name

But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] "attractive"? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: "value" and "growth,"...We view that as fuzzy thinking...Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term "value investing" is redundant.

                         -- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992

At Valuentum, we take Buffett's thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of a variety of investing disciplines in order to identify the most attractive stocks at any given time. Valuentum therefore analyzes each stock across a wide spectrum of philosophies, from deep value through momentum investing. And a combination of the two approaches found on each side of the spectrum (value/momentum) in a name couldn't be more representative of what our analysts do here; hence, we're called Valuentum.

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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor, and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. The sources of the data used on this website and reports are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum, its employees, independent contractors and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the securities mentioned on this website.

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Ben Pedersen (New York)
Ben Pedersen (New York)
 

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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Valuentum Exclusive publication, ESG Newsletter, and any reports, data and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, data or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor, and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. The sources of the data used on this website and reports are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum, its employees, and independent contractors may have long, short or derivative positions in the securities mentioned on this website. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are not real money portfolios. Performance, including that in the Valuentum Exclusive publication and additional options commentary feature, is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Actual results may differ from simulated information, results, or performance being presented. For more information about Valuentum and the products and services it offers, please contact us at info@valuentum.com.

 
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