Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 19, 2024

Netflix Continues to Deliver on Content and Engagement, Free Cash Flow Robust
Image: Netflix’s shares are trading at all-time highs. We liked Netflix’s revenue and operating income improvement in the third quarter, as well as its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025. Netflix is delivering with respect to content and customer engagement, and we like the fact that the firm continues to generate strong free cash flow. Netflix continues to build its advertising business, with ads membership up 35% on a sequential basis. Looking to the fourth quarter, Netflix has a nice slate of content, including Squid Game S2, the Jake Paul/Mike Tyson fight, and two NFL games on Christmas day, which Netflix expects to drive paid net additions higher in the quarter than in its most recently reported third quarter. The high end of our fair value estimate range for Netflix is $867 per share.

Sep 19, 2024

Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.

Aug 28, 2024

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.

Aug 9, 2024

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

Jul 19, 2024

Netflix Still Has a Long Runway of Growth Ahead of It
Image Source: Netflix. Netflix reported solid second quarter results and raised its forward-looking guidance for the full year 2024. The company is winning the streaming wars and has a long runway of future membership growth given the 80% of TV time it and Youtube don’t already own. Its nascent ads business continues to gain traction, too. Netflix still expects to haul in free cash flow of $6 billion in 2024, as it continues to buy back stock. The company ended the quarter with $14 billion in gross debt versus cash and cash equivalents of $6.7 billion. We think Netflix is performing well, but we're already quite tech heavy in the newsletter portfolios and won't be adding shares to any portfolio at this time.

Jun 25, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jun 10, 2024

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.
Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. We address a number of questions from both subscribers and visitors to our site.

Apr 19, 2024

Netflix to Stop Reporting Membership Numbers Starting Next Year
Image: Netflix still has a lot of room for growth. From where we stand, Netflix has won the streaming wars. Nearly 270 million households across 190+ countries subscribe to its content, and with estimates that there are more than two people per household, management emphasized that it has an audience of more than a half a billion people. Netflix has further room for growth, too, as it notes that its share of TV viewing is less than 10% in every country. Management pointed to content such as the boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson, as well as live programming such as WWE Raw as a couple examples to keep audiences entertained. We like Netflix, but we can’t get comfortable adding it to any newsletter portfolio at this time.

Apr 4, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Feb 25, 2024

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?
Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key long-term earnings growth, cash flow dynamics, and balance sheet health considerations. We remain bullish on equities for the long haul, and we think the next couple years will be incredibly strong. Our best ideas can be found in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, ESG Newsletter portfolio, and via the Exclusive publication as well as options idea generation.