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Valuentum Commentary
Jul 11, 2024
Delta Air Lines Speaks of Industry Fare Pressures
Image Source: Colin Brown. Delta Air Lines reported disappointing second-quarter results on July 11 with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than expected. The company put up record June quarter revenue, which reached $15.4 billion on an adjusted operating basis, up 5.4% from the same period a year ago, but the Street was looking for more. Earnings per share of $2.36 also missed the consensus forecast. Though airlines have largely rationalized capacity in recent years, fare pressures are starting to weigh on performance. We maintain our view that airlines are not long-term investments given their leverage to a cyclical economy and volatile jet fuel prices. Apr 10, 2024
Delta Reports Strong March Quarter; Airline Stocks are Too Risky for Our Taste
Image Source: Colin Brown. Delta’s quarter ending in March was solid, and its full year outlook was encouraging. In general, however, we don’t like airline equities. The extreme ticket price transparency creates an ultra-competitive environment, and overcapacity is always a concern. We view airlines as merely trading vehicles on the health of the global economy and the trajectory of crude oil prices. Delta is operating well, but it will never be able to escape the challenges of its industry, and for those reasons we remain on the sidelines with respect to shares. Mar 11, 2024
How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services
We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio seeks to find stocks that have good value and good momentum characteristics and typically targets capital appreciation potential over a longer-term horizon. The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio seeks to find underpriced dividend growth gems that generate strong levels of free cash flow and have pristine, fortress balance sheets, translating into excellent Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio seeks to find some of the highest-yielding stocks supported by strong credit profiles and solid business models, but not always robust traditional free cash flow. Ideas in this newsletter offer higher-yielding opportunities, but also much higher capital and income risk. We also offer a full suite of products to financial advisers (gold level) that range from a more extensive Excel-based screening tool (the DataScreener) to 'Ideas' and 'Dividend' publications that are released on a quarterly basis. Our research product includes hundreds of stock reports, fair values, fair value ranges, associated commentary, as well as dividend reports with Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratios and expected dividend growth rates. Silver and gold-level members can add the Valuentum Exclusive or additional options commentary/ideas to their plans. The Exclusive publication is a part of the institutional (platinum) level membership. Jan 8, 2024
Boeing In Negative Headlines Again; Part of 737 Max Fuselage Blows Out During Commercial Flight
Image: Boeing's shares have been quite volatile the past couple years. On January 6, Boeing received some more bad news. Part of a fuselage installed on one of its new eight-week old 737 Max 9 aircraft blew out on an Alaska Airlines flight. Boeing had been working hard to get back on track with customer perception of the safety of its 737 MAX line-up, and we view the incident as yet another hiccup in the firm’s relations with the public. Nov 4, 2023
Booking Holdings Is a Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse!
Image: Booking Holdings remains an asset-light, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. Booking Holdings ended the September quarter with a modest net cash position. Cash and cash equivalents totaled ~$13.3 billion and short-term investments came in at $624 million, a sum that was greater than its short-term debt load of ~$1.9 billion and long-term debt of ~$11.9 billion. The company hauled in ~$6 billion in cash flow from operations during the first nine months of 2023 and only spent $251 million on property and equipment, good for significant free cash flow generation. Its free cash flow margin so far in 2023, as measured by free cash flow divided by sales, was an impressive ~35%, showcasing just how efficient Booking Holdings is in converting its top line to cold hard cash. Our $3,164 per share fair value estimate remains unchanged at this time. Aug 11, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 11
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week. Aug 4, 2023
Best Idea Booking Holdings Soars!
Image: Booking Holdings’ free cash flow conversion is about as good as it gets. The company remains a key idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Booking Holdings. Booking Holdings fits the mold of the type of companies that we’re looking for in this market environment. The company has an asset-light business model that is tied to secular growth trends, all the while it boasts a net cash position and significant free cash flow generation. The company’s outlook also speaks to continued strength as it relates to leisure demand, a key data point suggesting that the broad economic environment remains resilient despite rate increases and the erosion of excess consumer cash savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic. The quarterly report was welcome news. Dec 14, 2022
Union Pacific Outperforming North American Rail Traffic Trends But Facing Inefficiencies and Inflation Hurdles
Image Source: Union Pacific. The rail industry may have avoided a labor strike, but North American rail traffic remains under pressure, while many operators are struggling with inflationary pressures and operational inefficiencies. Union Pacific remains our favorite way to play the rails, but 2022 has been a difficult year for the firm, with free cash flow coming under pressure as capital investments have soared so far in 2022. Union Pacific garners an ‘A’ rating by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P, so we’re not too worried about its large net debt position. Shares yield ~2.4% at the time of this writing, but we’re not pulling the trigger. Aug 19, 2022
Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document. Feb 1, 2022
Exxon Breaks Out! Oil Prices Might Rip Higher Still!
Image: A pretty technical breakout at Exxon Mobil. Valuentum's Callum Turcan: "The tight supply-demand dynamics for oil & natural gas combined with rising geopolitical tensions (West-Russia over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, reports of potential terror attacks on Northern Iraqi/Kurdish oil infrastructure, West-Iran over Iran's nuclear program and nuclear deal talks reportedly breaking down, civil tensions in Kazakhstan, perennial problems facing Libya and Nigeria's security situation) indicate there is likely room for oil prices to rip higher still." Latest News and Media The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas
Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on
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accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or
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no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a
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and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.
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