Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 4, 2024

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks
Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: Cash Flow Is Not Meaningful at Banks. Reason #4: There Are Plenty of Other Options. Let's dig in.

Jun 26, 2023

CFA Institute Blog: "Hide-'Til-Maturity" Accounting
CFA Institute Blog: "The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse recalls the tussle over the accounting for financial instruments after the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, particularly the debate about whether some financial instruments should be carried at amortized cost (held-to-maturity, HTM) rather than at fair value (available-for-sale, AFS), or what is referred to as the “mixed measurement model.”" -- Sandy Peters, CPA, CFA

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Feb 8, 2021

Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!

Jan 15, 2019

Fed Might Slow After All, Bank Reports Just Okay
Image shown: The yield curve is flattening. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis. The biggest question with Fed policy is whether the FOMC will purposefully cause an inversion in the yield curve. If it thinks the market is manipulating long rates to influence its policy, it may very well go forward with rate hikes. If it doesn't, it may very well slow the pace of rate hikes or even pause them. The behavioral implications of a yield-curve inversion may be more significant than the inversion, itself, however. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios

Jul 2, 2017

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30
Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members.

May 4, 2017

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing.

Jan 15, 2017

The Coming “Goldman Sachs Era”
Image Source: Jussi. Valuentum covers recent developments in the financials sector, including hopes for a relaxation of certain prohibitive Dodd-Frank rules that, if repealed, could pave the way for improved economic returns across the banking sector during the Trump administration. A look back at the month of September 2008, and how Goldman Sachs may very well shape the financial markets during the next few years are two other areas in the piece. Financials stocks have come roaring back since Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. We've participated.

Oct 27, 2016

Podcast: Why ETFs and Roasting the Banks
The Valuentum analyst team talks about why we don't like the business models of banking entities, why they are currently destroying economic value, but also why the team includes exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. What gives? Find out in this ~9 minute podcast.

Feb 7, 2014

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 7
Let's take a look at dividend increases/decreases for the week ending February 7.