Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 20, 2023

Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout
Image Source: Mike Mozart. If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive contractionary monetary policy, we believe the market may start to view the existing levels of “high” near-term interest rates as dry powder for the Fed to stimulate the economy in the future, if or when it’s needed. The Fed has now built up a very nice insurance policy with little damage done to the U.S. stock market, and we think equities, particularly the stylistic area of large cap growth, may continue to reward investors as such a positive view is eventually factored in. New highs may once again be in the cards, and we remain bullish on the equity markets today, despite the ominous volatility experienced the past 20+ months.

Apr 11, 2023

Markets Don’t Look Bad
Image: The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 continues to hold its January breakout, while support held in mid-March. The market-capitalization weighted S&P 500 is no longer in a downtrend, and while the regional banking crisis gave investors pause, we’d have to say the markets don’t look bad. From a technical standpoint, the SPY broke through its downtrend in January, while it held support in mid-March. If the S&P 500 can break through the early February near-term highs, technically, things are looking quite good for the beginnings of this nascent market leg-up. It’s been a long road to get to what looks like a “bottom,” but we might have witnessed it in October of last year.

Mar 14, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Yields on New Series I Savings Bonds Have Soared!
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are all indicated up Sunday night (March 13), but that may not mean much when trading kicks off tomorrow. The start to 2022 has been one of the worst stretches during the past decade, but broader market indexes still aren't down much, even after factoring in several expected rate hikes by the Fed and economic sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine. According to data from Seeking Alpha, the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and Nasdaq (QQQ) are off ~12%, ~10%, and ~19% so far this year, respectively. However, this weakness compares to (and is inclusive of) incredible 5-year price-only returns on the SPY, DIA, and QQQ of ~77%, ~58%, ~146%, respectively, so it's hard for stock investors to be disappointed in much of anything, even if all they were able to do was match the returns of the S&P 500 the past 5 years. Many, however, unfortunately, diluted those 5-year returns with hefty bond and international exposure and sometimes large AUM fees, so the weakness in 2022 is probably more painful for some than perhaps it should be. In any case, we remain bullish on stocks for the long run, with a heavy bent toward large cap growth and big cap tech with tactical overweight "positions" in big cap energy.

Mar 7, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Outsized Energy Exposure Continues to Buoy Newsletter Portfolios
Image: Light crude oil futures once traded for roughly -$40 (negative $40) during the COVID-19 crisis, but have now rocketed to more than $120 in recent trading. Image Source: TradingView. The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down 9% year-to-date, a modest pullback, in our view, particularly in light of the fantastic performance the past few years. Though not necessarily welcome, a down year every now and then for the broader market indexes and a modest bear market can only be expected, at times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as measured by the DIA, is down more than 7% year-to-date (not too bad), while the Nasdaq--as measured by the QQQ--and 'disruptive innovation' stocks--as measured by the Ark Innovation ETF--have fallen more than 15% and 36%, respectively, so far this year (data from Seeking Alpha). We like how the simulated newsletter portfolios are positioned. Energy resource prices continue to surge (with WTI crude oil prices skyrocketing north of $120 per barrel at last check), and they are bringing energy equities higher along with them. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio are all materially overweight energy equities relative to the energy sector’s weighting in the S&P 500, and we expect to maintain such high tactical "exposure." Both the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF and the Vanguard Energy ETF soared to 13-year highs last week. Our favorite energy ideas are the largest two energy majors, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and both have hefty 'weightings' in each of the three aforementioned simulated newsletter portfolios. Russian equities, as measured by the RSX, are down nearly 80% so far this year, and we're pleased to say that we've largely avoided the fall out. We continue to like the broader areas of U.S.-heavy, large cap growth and big cap tech when it comes to long-term secular exposure, and we continue to like energy as a tactical overweight for the foreseeable future across the simulated newsletter portfolios, as much as we did even prior to the huge advance in energy resource prices and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Jul 8, 2021

Still Bullish -- Stocks for the Long Run!
Image shown: The 10-year Treasury rate has fallen quite a bit since March of this year, suggesting that inflation expectations have come down in recent months. Image source: CNBC. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq continue to hover near all-time highs, and all appears well. We maintain our bullish take on the markets and believe that we are in the early innings of a long bull market that started following the washout March 2020 during the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown. Stock bull markets tend to average about 4.4 years in duration, with the last one enduring ~11 years, while bear markets are very abrupt, lasting only 11.3 months on average, the last one a very short 1.1 months, according to data from First Trust. We’re about 15 months into this new stock bull market, and we continue to believe increased equity exposure may better serve investors of all types going forward, through both the best of times and the worst of times.

May 8, 2020

ICYMI: Never Been More Bullish Even as Buffett Dumps Airlines
Image Source: IATA. Data Source: McKinsey & Company (IATA). Airlines haven’t been able to earn their estimated cost of capital for as long as we can remember. There have been hundreds of airline bankruptcies since deregulation in 1978. The news may be scary in coming months, and market volatility may elevate again, but we’ve never been more bullish on the longer run. The biggest advantage of an individual investor is something called time horizon arbitrage. As many professionals continue to fear a break below the March 23 lows, we’re focused on how this market absorbs the tremendous and unprecedented stimulus in the coming months and what that means for nominal equity prices in the longer run. It may not happen this month or this year, but we expect lift off as investors race to preserve purchasing power! Our favorite ideas for a portfolio setting remain in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Our favorite brand new ideas, released each month, are included in the Exclusive publication.

Apr 8, 2020

US Fiscal Stimulus and Emergency Spending Update
Image Source: Pictures of Money. On Thursday, April 9, the US Senate is set to hold a vote on whether to add additional funding towards helping small- and medium-sized businesses (‘SMBs’) on top of the $350 billion allocated towards a loan/grant program that was included in the recently passed $2+ trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (‘CARES Act’). Key Republican legislators and Trump administration officials including Senate Majority Leader McConnell (Kentucky), Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Senator Rubio (Florida) who is Chairman of the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, want to add $250 billion in funding capacity to the SMBs relief program, dubbed the Paycheck Protection Program (‘PPP’). That program involves providing loans to SMBs equal to 250% of their monthly payroll, and those loans can be used to pay employees along with utilities and rent. If those funds are used to retain workers, they can become forgivable loans and effectively grants (if certain conditions are met).

Mar 18, 2020

Banking Entities: The Technicals Tell the Story
Image: The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF has experienced a tremendous amount of pain in recent weeks.  What is clear is that temporarily shutting down large parts of U.S. economy is absolutely unprecedented, and there will be substantial knock-on effects and difficulties in getting things restarted. This is most especially true if the coronavirus re-emerges following the periods of social distancing around the world, or when the weather turns colder again in the fall, and humanity could be facing a different strand of the coronavirus. Don’t forget that all bank institutions use a lot of financial leverage by their very nature, and the Fed and Treasury can never truly stop a run-on-the-bank dynamic (i.e. that which happened to WaMu in 2008). We think BOK Financial is in particular trouble given its energy loan exposure. Others to avoid include Cullen/Frost Bankers, Cadence Bancorp, and CIT Group. The credit card entities, Capital One and Synchrony Financial may be worth avoiding. We’d stay far away from the regional banks given their exposure to small business pain amid COVID-19. We don’t think the fiscal stimulus on the table does much to help small businesses. Deutsche Bank may be the first of the big European banks to topple, and this weakness could eventually spread to the U.S. banks given counterparty risk. Most foreign banks, including Santander, Credit Suisse, UBS, ING, and BBVA remain exposed to crisis scenarios. We’re also witnessing some very troubling developments with banking preferred shares, with the bank-preferred-heavy ETF, Global X SuperIncome Preferred ETF dropping ~15% during the trading session March 18. The preferreds of HSBC and Ally Financial are top weightings in that ETF. Banking technicals are raising some major red flags across the board, and given actions by the Fed and Treasury, this crisis has all the makings of being worse than the Great Financial Crisis. In any financial crisis perhaps excepting a depression, there can come a time to invest new money in bank stocks. Though it seems likely we have not yet reached the bottom in the markets yet, the highest-ground bank franchises in the US are JPMorgan and Bank of America, in our view. While sharp declines in their equity values may be expected (no one truly knows how deep the coming flood will be), they’re likely to make it to the other side with most of their equity capital firmly intact. With all that said, however, one doesn’t have to hold banking equities. It may be time to phone Mr. Buffett before things really start to unfold.

Mar 15, 2020

Fed Cuts 100 Basis Points, Launches More QE
“Now, stocks and other assets are being sold, some indiscriminately. It is truly becoming a stock pickers market as opposed to a quant-led and index-led market. It takes a different kind of bravery to buy on massive down days and one must have conviction in their research that the company will not go away if massive downside scenarios do in fact emerge.” – Matthew Warren. In this piece, we cover our assessment of what the global markets might be facing in a bull-case, base-case, and bear-case scenario. Our base case is a substantial recession in the US and a financial crisis of some unknown magnitude.

Jun 22, 2018

Internet Sales Taxes and Restructuring the U.S. Post Office
The Supreme Court has been active in creating revenue opportunities for states, as in legalizing sports betting and most recently in facilitating the collection of online sales taxes. The White House has floated the idea of reorganizing the U.S. Postal Service, but we think this endeavor represents more of a tail risk for Stamps.com than anything else. Though we expect smaller online retailers to feel some pressure as a result of the online sales tax ruling (Amazon already collects online sales taxes), we don’t think the ruling, while leveling the playing field for some brick-and-mortar retailers, will change the fate of many aging department stores such as J.C. Penney and Sears, both of which may not make it to the other side of the next downturn with shareholder capital intact.